Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility
Victory in Valadao - Cox Rematch Again Hinges on Kern Voters
gvw_david_taub
By David Taub, Senior Reporter
Published 4 years ago on
November 11, 2020

Share

After a Tuesday night update from Tulare County, incumbent TJ Cox (D-Fresno) picked up a net 15 votes from 319 new votes added (taking 52.4%), to reduce challenger David Valadao’s lead to 4,026 votes.

There will be no updated vote count Wednesday in the 21st Congressional District race on account of the Veterans Day holiday.

Tulare County Vote Returns of November 10

Tulare  County  New Votes  For Cox  For Valadao  Difference
                         319                        167                             152                            15 for Cox
52.4% 47.6%

Four counties make up the 21st District, all with varying amounts of ballots remaining and differing update frequencies.

Kings County, which makes up 23% of the district, has halted all counting until Nov. 21 because of a staff COVID-19 exposure. County registrar Lupe Villa has said 1,529 ballots remain county wide, all 21st District voters.

Kings is the only county where all the voters fall within the same congressional district. Fresno, Tulare and Kern voters are split among multiple congressional districts.

Fresno County expects its next update on Friday afternoon.

Updated Overall Vote Count by Number and by County

Congress 21 Fresno Tulare Kings Kern TOTAL Lead Percentage
Cox (D) 27,528 2,699 15,811 22,286 68,324 48.6%
Valadao (R) 29,212 2,686 25,906 14,546 72,350         4,026 51.4%
Last reported  Tu, 1:45 p.m.  Tu, 5:10 p.m.  F, 2:53 p.m.  Tu, 1:11 p.m.
Estimated remainder in CD 21                          844                        420                         1,529                    31,385      34,178

Remaining Votes and Needed Total to Win

GV Wire estimates 34,178 votes remaining to be counted across the four counties. That is based on the overall total of votes remaining in the county, multiplied by the percentage of voters that fall within the 21st District.

Kern County has the bulk of the estimated remaining ballots at 31,385.

For Cox to close the 4,000-plus vote gap, he would need 55.8% of the remaining vote. That number can fluctuate dependent on vote returns.

Kern has been Cox’s strongest county in the vote returns, taking 60.5% of the votes counted so far. It is on par with his 2018 vote return in Kern County.

However, in the two updates since initial election night returns, Cox’s percentage of new votes has decreased. In an Nov. 7 update, Cox took 58.6% of newly counted Kern County votes; yesterday, he earned 55.9%.

According to the Secretary of State, Kern is still counting vote-by-mail and same-day registration ballots.

Updated percentages for other counties have been more consistent with the overall figures for that county.

If the same ratios continue for the remaining ballots on a county-by-county basis, Cox would pick up a net of 6,201 votes and win the election.

Just as in 2018 when Cox defeated Valadao by 862 votes, this one could go down to the wire again.

Vote Returns by County by Percentage

Congress 21 Fresno Tulare Kings Kern
Cox (D) 48.5% 50.1% 37.9% 60.5%
Valadao (R) 51.5% 49.9% 62.1% 39.5%

Estimated Vote Share of Remaining Ballots

Estimated Vote Share Fresno Tulare Kings Kern TOTAL Lead
Cox                         409                        211                             580                    18,990      20,190         6,201
Valadao                         435                        209                             949                    12,395      13,988

DON'T MISS

Wine Judging Explained: How Taste Buds and Palates Evolve

DON'T MISS

Clovis Unified Bond Measure Would Modernize 67-Year-Old School, Complete Brand-New Campus

DON'T MISS

Costa: It’s Time for Biden ‘to Pass the Torch’ and Drop Out of Race

DON'T MISS

How Do Former CEOs’ Guilty Pleas Impact Lawsuit Filed by Bitwise Employees?

DON'T MISS

People Close to Biden Say He Appears to Accept He May Have to Leave the Race

DON'T MISS

Founder of Fandango Dies After Plunge From Manhattan Hotel

DON'T MISS

New Study Shows Promise and Caution for Magic Mushrooms

DON'T MISS

Why Does Venezuela’s President Appear on the Ballot 13 Times?

DON'T MISS

JD Vance’s Public Venmo Reveals Ties to Elites, Project 2025

DON'T MISS

A Daily Pill to Prevent STIs? It May Work, Scientists Say

UP NEXT

Founder of Fandango Dies After Plunge From Manhattan Hotel

UP NEXT

JD Vance’s Public Venmo Reveals Ties to Elites, Project 2025

UP NEXT

America’s Allies in Middle East See Some Advantages in Potential 2nd Trump Presidency

UP NEXT

How Donald Trump Shaped the 2024 GOP Platform

UP NEXT

Rally Shooter Had Photos of Trump, Biden and Other US Officials on His Phone, AP Sources Say

UP NEXT

Obama, Pelosi and Democrats Make a Fresh Push for Biden to Reconsider 2024 Race

UP NEXT

The Last Cards Have Been Dealt as the Iconic Mirage Closes Its Doors on the Las Vegas Strip

UP NEXT

Visalia Man Faces Third Strike for Serial Burglary

UP NEXT

What the Main Characters at the RNC Say About the Party

UP NEXT

Trump to Close Convention in Full Control of His Party

David Taub,
Senior Reporter
Curiosity drives David Taub. The award-winning journalist might be shy, but feels mighty with a recorder in his hand. He doesn't see it his job to "hold public officials accountable," but does see it to provide readers (and voters) the information needed to make intelligent choices. Taub has been honored with several writing awards from the California News Publishers Association. He's just happy to have his stories read. Joining GV Wire in 2016, Taub covers politics, government and elections, mainly in the Fresno/Clovis area. He also writes columns about local eateries (Appetite for Fresno), pro wrestling (Off the Bottom Rope), and media (Media Man). Prior to joining the online news source, Taub worked as a radio producer for KMJ and PowerTalk 96.7 in Fresno. He also worked as an assignment editor for KCOY-TV in Santa Maria, California, and KSEE-TV in Fresno. He has also worked behind the scenes for several sports broadcasts, including the NCAA basketball tournament, and the Super Bowl. When not spending time with his family, Taub loves to officially score Fresno Grizzlies games. Growing up in the San Francisco Bay Area, Taub is a die-hard Giants and 49ers fan. He graduated from the University of Michigan with dual degrees in communications and political science. Go Blue! You can contact David at 559-492-4037 or at Send an Email

How Do Former CEOs’ Guilty Pleas Impact Lawsuit Filed by Bitwise Employees?

12 hours ago

People Close to Biden Say He Appears to Accept He May Have to Leave the Race

12 hours ago

Founder of Fandango Dies After Plunge From Manhattan Hotel

12 hours ago

New Study Shows Promise and Caution for Magic Mushrooms

13 hours ago

Why Does Venezuela’s President Appear on the Ballot 13 Times?

13 hours ago

JD Vance’s Public Venmo Reveals Ties to Elites, Project 2025

13 hours ago

A Daily Pill to Prevent STIs? It May Work, Scientists Say

13 hours ago

America’s Allies in Middle East See Some Advantages in Potential 2nd Trump Presidency

13 hours ago

Comedian Bob Newhart, Deadpan Master of Sitcoms and Telephone Monologues, Dies at 94

14 hours ago

CA Mom Pleads Guilty to Masterminding $8 Million Makeup Theft Ring From Her Mansion

14 hours ago

Wine Judging Explained: How Taste Buds and Palates Evolve

Have you ever wondered how the wine judges score wine? Tony Kirk, owner of Birdstone Winery, explains the process on how wine is judged. Rel...

9 hours ago

9 hours ago

Wine Judging Explained: How Taste Buds and Palates Evolve

9 hours ago

Clovis Unified Bond Measure Would Modernize 67-Year-Old School, Complete Brand-New Campus

10 hours ago

Costa: It’s Time for Biden ‘to Pass the Torch’ and Drop Out of Race

12 hours ago

How Do Former CEOs’ Guilty Pleas Impact Lawsuit Filed by Bitwise Employees?

12 hours ago

People Close to Biden Say He Appears to Accept He May Have to Leave the Race

12 hours ago

Founder of Fandango Dies After Plunge From Manhattan Hotel

13 hours ago

New Study Shows Promise and Caution for Magic Mushrooms

13 hours ago

Why Does Venezuela’s President Appear on the Ballot 13 Times?

Search

Send this to a friend