A week before the midterm elections, the jitters have taken root.

Political forecasters and strategists are increasingly confident that Democrats will win control of the House next week. But what is remarkable about the Senate is that, so close to Election Day, the battleground map is still wide and unsettled, making both parties nervous.

The spending reflects the ongoing Senate fight: Republicans are outspending Democrats on advertising in the seven Senate races considered toss-ups by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. By comparison, Republicans have only a narrow spending edge in House races.

Several scenarios remain possible. Competitive Senate races could tighten in Republicans’ favor as they get their most loyal supporters to the polls. Democrats could do well in red states but struggle in some bluer ones. Or the bottom could fall out for Republicans in a potential wave that Democrats are too apprehensive to consider after past disappointments.

The Battle for the Senate

President Donald Trump’s busy schedule offers indicators of which Senate races Republicans are most focused on in the waning days of the midterms — and where the president is and isn’t welcome. Trump has been barnstorming red states where Republican voter enthusiasm has lagged. He has stayed out of Senate battlegrounds such as Maine and New Hampshire, where his deep unpopularity might hurt Republican Senate candidates more than help them.

Last week, Trump traveled to Kansas, North Carolina, South Carolina, Iowa, Florida and Georgia. This week, after a rally Sunday night in Michigan, he has rallies scheduled in Mississippi, Texas, Ohio, and Florida. (Vice President JD Vance will hold separate events in Montana, Michigan and Texas.)

Mississippi has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1982. But Scott Colom, a Mississippi prosecutor and the Democratic nominee for Senate, has been seeing a late infusion of cash and attention in his bid to unseat Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, the Republican incumbent.

The Race for the House

Democrats’ House prospects are so bright that the Cook Political Report has rated a majority of the chamber as leaning Democratic for the first time this election cycle. The report shifted 19 more House races toward Democrats on Friday, meaning that even if Republicans won all 17 races rated as toss-ups, they would still lose control of the House.

Four of the shifts from “toss-up” to “lean Democrat” came in races with Republican incumbents. The report shifted four races in Texas and three in North Carolina because the Republican candidates at the top of the ticket (read: running for Senate) in those states are underperforming.

The Money

Last-minute campaign finance activity is a doozy.

Candidates and outside funding groups sometimes make legal yet sneaky moves in the final days before the election, leaving voters in the dark about who is funding their efforts.

That’s because any activity on or after Oct. 15 will not be made public until after Election Day. A lot of money from shadowy nonprofit groups, which do not disclose their donors, tends to flow into super political action committees at the very end of the midterms.

Meantime, what the latest reports show is a trend that has been a defining factor in this year’s midterm races: Democratic candidates have outraised Republican contenders in competitive races, but Republican groups have outpaced their Democratic counterparts.

One Key Metric

$116.72 a barrel: That’s what prices rose to Friday for Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, amid fears over the Iran war. Brent crude prices have risen 60% since the war began and are now at their highest level since April.

The jump in oil prices has pushed up energy costs for Americans; gas now averages $4.29 a gallon, according to AAA.

Top Talker

A leaked advertisement in the Ohio governor’s race dominated the political conversation for much of last week. The explosive spot featured the estranged mother of Dr. Amy Acton, the Democratic candidate for governor, calling her daughter a liar. Acton has said she has not spoken to her mother since she was 12 years old, when she was removed from her custody after her stepfather was arrested and charged with raping her.

Vivek Ramaswamy, the Republican candidate who has been trailing Acton in polls and whose campaign produced the spot, defended the ad — and bought $4 million in airtime to broadcast it — even as some Republicans denounced it. Then, over the weekend, his campaign replaced the original version, which was 60 seconds long, with a 30-second cut that excludes a mention of Acton’s childhood.

The ad has tested the boundaries of campaign attacks in the era of Trump politics. Neither party knows exactly whether the backlash could hurt Sen. Jon Husted, the Republican incumbent trying to defend his seat in a toss-up race. Husted said he would not have run the ad.

One Poll Number

49%: That’s the share that Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, a Republican, and Troy Jackson, her Democratic challenger, are each getting in a new poll from Fox News. The poll found that 53% of voters were concerned that Collins voted with Trump too much, and that 46% thought that Jackson was too liberal. Polls have shown a tightening race in Maine in the final campaign stretch.

On the Ground

The cavalry has arrived in Florida, a state that remains a long shot for Democrats but where the races for Senate and especially for governor have been closer than expected.

Trump held a rally in the state last week and scheduled another one for this week to support Sen. Ashley Moody, who is seeking election after she was appointed to replace Marco Rubio, and Rep. Byron Donalds, who is running for governor. Over the weekend, former President Barack Obama, who won Florida twice, endorsed the Democratic candidates in both races, state Rep. Angie Nixon for Senate and David Jolly for governor.

Last week, Jolly welcomed former President Bill Clinton to Hollywood, Florida, in what was Clinton’s first campaign trail appearance this election cycle. Clinton urged voters to elect “somebody who will wake up every morning thinking about what you need — not what will make President Trump happy.”

Quote of the Week

“He’s got the White House looking like Saddam Hussein opened up a Cheesecake Factory.”

That was Obama at a rally in Cleveland on Saturday. He went on an extended riff about Trump and argued that the president cared more about his White House renovation projects than about making life more affordable for Americans.

Trump told reporters that Obama had been a “lousy president.”

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This article originally appeared in The New York Times.

By Patricia Mazzei/Victor J. Blue
c. 2026 The New York Times Company