MEXICO CITY — Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said Thursday she is confident that a tariff war with the United States can be averted.

But her statement — the day after she held a phone call with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump — did not make clear who had offered what.

“There will be no potential tariff war,” Sheinbaum said flatly when asked about the issue at her daily morning news briefing.

Conflicting Statements on Migration Control

On Wednesday, Trump wrote that Sheinbaum had agreed to stop unauthorized migration across the border into the United States. She wrote on her social media accounts the same day that “migrants and caravans are taken care of before they reach the border.”

But whether that constituted a promise, a pledge or a simple statement of reality remains unclear. In recent years, migrants who have been unable to obtain permission to cross Mexico have joined together in caravans to walk or hitchhike north toward the U.S. border, seeking safety in numbers.

In fact, apart from the first caravans in 2018 and 2019 — which were provided buses to ride part of the way north — no caravan has ever reached the border walking or hitchhiking in any cohesive way.

For years, migrant caravans have often been blocked, harassed or prevented from hitching rides by Mexican police and migration agents. They have also frequently been rounded up or returned to areas near the Guatemalan border. So, Sheinbaum’s statement appears to reflect a reality that has been true for some time.

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Biden Hopes for Reconsideration of Tariff Plans

U.S. President Joe Biden on Thursday said he hoped Trump would rethink his plan to impose tariffs on Mexico and Canada, saying it could “screw up” relationships with close allies.

“I hope he rethinks it. I think it’s a counterproductive thing to do,” he told reporters in Nantucket, Massachusetts.

Trump had earlier threatened to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada until those countries satisfactorily stop illegal immigration and the flow of illegal drugs such as fentanyl into the United States. He also said Chinese imports would face additional tariffs of 10% until Beijing cracks down on the production of materials used in making fentanyl.

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Economic Concerns and Potential Retaliation

Despite Sheinbaum’s confidence — she described the phone conversation with Trump as “excellent” — many Mexicans worry that U.S. tariffs could affect a wide range of iconic Mexican products and threaten entire regional economies.

In western Mexico, no crop supplies an income for so many small growers as avocados, and Mexico is the main supplier of the fruit for the U.S. market. But avocado growers, pickers and packers worry that U.S. consumers, faced with 25% higher prices, may just skip the guacamole.

And earlier this week, Sheinbaum said Mexico was preparing a list of retaliatory tariffs if Trump went ahead with his plans for import duties.

If Mexico, Canada and China faced the additional tariffs proposed by Trump on all goods imported to the United States, that could be roughly equal to $266 billion in tax collections, a number that does not assume any disruptions in trade or retaliatory moves by other countries.

The cost of those taxes would likely be borne by U.S. families, importers and domestic and foreign companies in the form of higher prices or lower profits.