WASHINGTON — The U.S. economic landscape would look even bleaker if not for America's consumers. The economy slowed in the spring, and many analysts think the weakness will continue in the months ahead. Yet consumer spending, which drives about 70% of growth, accelerated in the April-June quarter at the fastest...
74% of Economists in Survey Expect 2021 Recession
WASHINGTON — A strong majority, 74%, of U.S. business economists appear sufficiently concerned about the risks of some of President Donald Trump’s economic policies that they expect a recession in the U.S. by the end of 2021. The economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics, in a report released Monday,...
Walters: Is a Recession on Our Horizon?
We live in volatile economic times, with global markets reacting moment by moment to the latest bits of data and the utterances of central bankers and politicians — even the tweets from the White House. California’s economy is much too big — the fifth largest in the world, we are...
US Stocks Steady After Plunge, but Caution Reigns
NEW YORK — Stocks around the world remained stuck in the spin cycle Thursday, as worries about a possible recession collided with hopes that the strongest part of the U.S. economy — shoppers spending at stores and online — can keep going. The S&P 500 moved between modest gains and...
Walters: California’s Other Fiscal Crisis
Gov. Gavin Newsom and his predecessor, Jerry Brown, have repeatedly stressed the need to build state budget reserves to cushion the impact of the next recession, whenever it hits. Thanks to a vibrant economy, they’ve squirreled away nearly $20 billion in various reserve accounts. When recession hits, however, the state...
Is Historically Low Unemployment Near in Fresno County?
Could Fresno County soon see its lowest monthly unemployment rate in more than a generation? In data released Friday by California's Employment Development Department, Fresno County had an unadjusted unemployment rate of 6.4% in May. In state records that date back to January 1990, the county's jobless rate dipped that...
Is a Recession Coming? One Key Indicator Shouts Yes.
What happens when the interest rate for a 3-month Treasury bill is higher than the interest rate for a 10-year note? Many investors and economists sound the alarm about a coming recession. That's what happened Tuesday as the 3-month bill yield rose to 2.36% while the 10-year note yield dropped to...
When the Next Recession Hits, Will California Be Able to Count on Washington?
They don’t call it the Golden State for nothing, at least not lately. California’s fiscal health is in extraordinary shape. Income tax receipts surpassed expectations for the pivotal month of April. Projections of a $21 billion-plus surplus are not out of the question. Nearly 3 million jobs have been added since the depths of...
Stocks Fall as Bond Market Flashes a Recession Warning
By Matt Phillips The bond market smells a recession. On Friday, stock investors caught a whiff, too. Economic forecasters and Wall Street traders have been watching for months as interest rates on long-term U.S. government bonds have dropped toward the rates on short-term debt. Investors normally demand higher yields to buy...
Newsom's First Budget Is $144B. And It Increases 'Rainy Day' Fund.
SACRAMENTO — California Gov. Gavin Newsom proposed a $144 billion general fund budget in his first spending plan Thursday, up 4 percent from the current year. The new governor's budget includes $13.6 billion to build the state's reserves and to pay down state debt and its growing pension liability. It's...