On Election Day, states where polls close and ballot counting begins early could offer the first concrete clues for how the rest of the night will go, with control of Congress on the line.

Here are some poll closures to watch in the first hours of election night. All times are Eastern.

4 p.m. PT: Kentucky and Indiana

President Donald Trump won Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District by 15 points in 2024, but its House race this year has been rated a toss-up by nonpartisan election forecasters. If the Democratic candidate, Zach Dembo, a former federal prosecutor and Navy veteran, beats the Republican, Ralph Alvarado, a physician and former state senator endorsed by Trump, it would signal Democrats’ strength overall.

In Indiana’s traditionally conservative 5th District, Rep. Victoria Spartz, a Republican, won by about 19 points in 2024 and is favored to retain the seat Tuesday, according to forecasters. But her lead has narrowed the area, where Democrats are usually not competitive. If the winner is her Democratic challenger, state Sen. J.D. Ford, it could signal broader Democratic victories.

Democrats do not usually win votes from rural white voters in either district, and if one or both Democratic candidates prevail, that “would indicate that we are winning in a way that is going to translate across the country in many similar districts,” said CJ Warnke, a spokesperson for the House Majority PAC, the biggest super political action committee for House Democrats.

If a Republican wins either race, it could mean that their party might mitigate its losses elsewhere.

4 p.m. PT: Florida

Republican state lawmakers redrew several congressional districts to favor their party. Despite that, analysts say many of these districts have close races. If Democrats win in the 7th, 9th, 14th, 22nd or 25th districts, it could bode well for them elsewhere.

Republican victories in these districts could mean that the party’s redistricting efforts successfully blocked a Democratic surge during a difficult year for Republicans.

Republicans are favored to win the Senate and governor’s races in Florida, according to analysts. But Democrats have lately been hopeful about the governor’s race, where David Jolly, the Democratic nominee, is challenging Rep. Byron Donalds, a Republican. If Democrats win the Senate and governor’s races, they are having a very good night.

Even if there is a victory for Donalds or the Republican incumbent in the Senate, Ashley Moody, Democrats may find that some demographic groups bear watching.

Each Hispanic and Black community in the United States is unique, but significant shifts in how the groups vote in South Florida could indicate how Democrats elsewhere, like James Talarico in the Texas Senate race, will fare. Hispanic voters, who make up about a third of the Texas electorate, are a key swing voting bloc in the state.

4 p.m. PT: South Carolina

South Carolina’s 1st District has not only been traditionally conservative-leaning, but it has also been gerrymandered by Republicans to further benefit their party. Still, the race has been rated a toss-up by analysts.

If Nancy Lacore, a Democratic former Navy admiral who was fired by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, wins the open seat over Jenny Costa Honeycutt, a Republican local council member and lawyer, it would signal that a strong Democratic candidate could win in red territory elsewhere in the country. But if Honeycutt wins, it could reflect the strength of the region’s conservative base and the redrawn district lines.

The chances of a Democratic victory in the state’s Senate race are slimmer, but the lead held by Darline Graham, who was appointed to fill the seat after the death of her brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham, has narrowed throughout her campaign. If she loses to Annie Andrews, a pediatrician running as a Democrat, that could mean that Republicans may lose their majority in the upper chamber.

4 p.m. PT: Virginia

Virginia’s 2nd District traditionally swings, and analysts said that the Democratic candidate, former Rep. Elaine Luria, was favored to flip it. The result could indicate whether a strong Republican candidate like Jen Kiggans, a two-term incumbent, can survive Democratic momentum.

Trump won the neighboring 1st District by 5 points in 2024, but analysts said the House race there this year was a toss-up. If Shannon Taylor, a Democratic prosecutor, defeats Rep. Rob Wittman, a Republican first elected in 2007, Democrats could be in for a great night.

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This article originally appeared in The New York Times.

By John Yoon/Ruth Fremson
c. 2026 The New York Times Company