With voters heading to the polls Tuesday, some of the final surveys of the 2026 midterm campaign show Democrats ahead in closely watched U.S. Senate contests in Texas, Kansas, and Michigan, while the latest public polling in Georgia also gives Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff an advantage.

A New York Times/Siena College poll released Sunday surveyed likely voters across seven Senate battlegrounds through Nov. 1, providing some of the final polling snapshots before Election Day.

The results showed especially competitive races in states that have historically favored Republicans, although several of the margins remain close enough that sampling error could alter the picture.

Texas

In Texas, Democratic state Rep. James Talarico received 50% support among likely voters, compared with 43% for Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, according to the Times/Siena poll.

The Texas survey had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

Texas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1988, making the race one of the most closely watched contests in the battle for control of Congress.

The Times/Siena result follows several other late October polls showing a narrower contest. A University of Texas Texas Politics Project poll tracker shows a YouGov survey conducted Oct. 26-29 giving Talarico 51% to Paxton’s 47%, while an earlier CNN/SSRS survey had Talarico at 49% and Paxton at 43%.

Kansas

The newest Times/Siena poll also showed a competitive Senate contest in Kansas, where Democrat Adam Hamilton received 49% support to Republican Sen. Roger Marshall’s 44%.

Libertarian David Graham received 4%.

The Kansas survey’s margin of sampling error was plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, meaning the difference between Hamilton and Marshall was only slightly larger than the poll’s sampling error.

Other recent surveys have produced similarly close results. A Decision Desk HQ compilation of Kansas polls shows a YouGov poll conducted Oct. 26-29 with Hamilton at 50% and Marshall at 49%, while an Emerson College survey conducted Oct. 26-28 had Hamilton ahead 49% to 45%.

A Washington Post-Schar School survey conducted Oct. 22-26 showed a larger difference, with Hamilton at 52% and Marshall at 43%.

Michigan

Michigan’s latest Times/Siena survey showed a larger gap.

Democrat Abdul El-Sayed received 53% support among likely voters, compared with 42% for Republican Mike Rogers. The survey had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

The finding was consistent with the direction of other recent Michigan polling, though the size of El-Sayed’s advantage has varied considerably.

A Michigan polling compilation shows a Research Co. survey completed Nov. 1 with El-Sayed at 48% and Rogers at 46%. A YouGov poll completed Oct. 29 had El-Sayed ahead 51% to 47%, while a Rasmussen Reports survey showed him ahead 49% to 44%.

Michigan is the only Democratic-held Senate seat among the seven states surveyed in the final Times/Siena battleground poll.

Georgia

Georgia was not included in the final Times/Siena battleground survey.

The newest public Georgia Senate poll located Monday was an Echelon Insights survey listed by Inside Elections conducted Oct. 16-23.

It showed Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff at 55% and Republican Rep. Mike Collins at 40% among 508 likely voters.

The survey, conducted for NetChoice, had a margin of error of plus or minus 5.2 percentage points.

An earlier Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll conducted by the University of Georgia found a smaller difference. That survey, conducted Oct. 7-15 among 1,000 likely voters, put Ossoff at nearly 48% and Collins at 40%, with about 12% undecided.

The University of Georgia poll had a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.

Senate Control on the Line

The final surveys come as both parties make their closing appeals ahead of Tuesday’s election, with control of the Senate dependent on contests across a relatively small group of states.

Democrats must protect their existing Senate seats while flipping at least four Republican-held seats to take control of the chamber.

The final Times/Siena surveys showed Democratic candidates ahead in Kansas, Texas, Michigan, Ohio, and Maine, while the differences in Alaska and Iowa were considerably narrower. Several of those contests remain within or near their surveys’ margins of error.

Polling measures voter preferences at the time surveys are conducted and is not a prediction of election results.

—

Connect with Anthony W. Haddad on social media. Got a tip? Send an email.