The Air Force pulled off an upset victory over Fresno State, defeating the Bulldogs 36-28 at Falcon Stadium on Saturday night. Fresno State, which has now faced back-to-back losses to Mountain West opponents they were predicted to beat, saw its conference championship hopes officially extinguished with the defeat.

The Falcons entered the game 1-7, having yet to beat an FBS team this season and without a win since their season opener in August.

The loss drops Fresno State to 5-5 overall and 3-3 in Mountain West play, dimming prospects for any postseason ambitions.

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Early Momentum Shifts

Fresno State struck first in Saturday’s game against Air Force, but an early setback nearly stalled their momentum. Bulldogs quarterback Mikey Keene was sacked on third-and-goal, only to see the drive extended by a defensive pass interference penalty. Running back Elijah Gilliam capitalized, bulldozing into the end zone to give Fresno State a 7-0 lead with 11:01 left in the first quarter.

Air Force responded with a clock-consuming drive, capped by running back Dylan Carson’s first touchdown of the season to tie the game at 7-7 with just 11 seconds remaining in the first.

In the second quarter, Fresno State went three-and-out on their next drive, allowing Air Force to reclaim control. A facemask penalty on Bulldogs cornerback Julian Neal kept the Falcons’ drive alive, and quarterback Quentin Hayes connected with receiver Cade Harris on a crossing route, putting Air Force ahead 14-7 with 4:45 remaining. It marked the Falcons’ longest drive of the season.

Fresno State quickly answered with its own highlight, as Keene found wide receiver Mac Dalena streaking down the sideline for a 73-yard touchdown, their longest play of the season, tying the game at 14-14 with 3:47 left in the half.

The Bulldogs defense held on Air Force’s fourth-down attempt with 2:23 remaining, with linebacker Tuasivi Nomura stopping the Falcons’ run and turning the ball over on downs. Keene then hit receiver Jalen Moss, who dove over the pylon for a touchdown, putting Fresno State up 21-14 with 1:37 left in the second quarter.

The Falcons answered by driving into field goal range, where kicker Matthew Dapore made it 21-17 as time expired in the half. Air Force closed the half with 172 rushing yards.

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Falcons Dominate Second Half

Air Force, previously outscored 68-0 by opponents in the third quarter this season, found their rhythm after halftime, rallying to defeat Fresno State 36-28.

The Falcons opened the third quarter with a field goal, narrowing Fresno State’s lead to 21-20 at 9:46. Bulldogs quarterback Mikey Keene threw his 11th interception of the season when linebacker Blake Fletcher made a diving catch after a deflection, giving Air Force another scoring opportunity.

On fourth-and-goal, quarterback Quentin Hayes ran it in, though a failed two-point conversion left Air Force with a 26-21 lead at 2:30. Fresno State attempted to respond on fourth down, but Keene’s pass to running back Elijah Gilliam fell short of the marker, turning the ball over on downs.

In the fourth quarter, Air Force continued their ground attack, with Hayes scoring his second rushing touchdown to extend the lead to 33-21 with 8:51 remaining. Fresno State’s hopes faded further when Keene was sacked on consecutive plays, ending their drive on a fourth-down attempt.

Air Force looked to run down the clock but added a final field goal, with kicker Dapore becoming the program’s all-time leading scorer as the Falcons stretched their lead to 36-21. Fresno State managed a quick response, with Keene finding Dalena in the end zone to close the gap to 36-28 with just 38 seconds left.

The Bulldogs attempted an onside kick, but Air Force recovered, sealing their hard-fought victory.

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Analyzing the Upset

This loss may sting most for Fresno State, which found itself overwhelmed by Air Force’s relentless ground attack and plagued by roster gaps on defense.

The Falcons posted the highest number of rushing attempts in an FBS game this season, with the Bulldogs’ defense unable to counter their triple-option offense. Fresno State’s front seven struggled to gain any penetration, leaving little resistance against Air Force’s 344 rushing yards.

Missing key defensive players, the Bulldogs were further weakened. Cornerback Cam Lockridge, who was expected to return after sitting out the first half following a targeting penalty against Hawai’i, missed the entire game. Linebacker Phoenix Jackson, last week’s Mountain West Defensive Player of the Week, was out due to illness, and safety Dean Clark sat with a groin injury.

Despite an interception, quarterback Mikey Keene put together a strong performance, completing 23 of 26 passes for 289 yards and three touchdowns. However, the Bulldogs were held to -5 rushing yards, underscoring the challenge of matching Air Force’s physicality on the ground.

A win would have made Fresno State bowl-eligible for the fourth straight season. The Bulldogs still have a chance to secure eligibility when they host Colorado State at Valley Children’s Stadium after a bye week. Yet with a season pattern of losing to expected underdogs, this latest performance suggests Fresno State may again struggle to capitalize.