A recent shift in the 2024 presidential race forecast has moved Minnesota from a state leaning toward Vice President Kamala Harris to a toss-up, according to a Newsweek report.

As of Monday, the polling aggregator reclassified Minnesota, which had been listed as “lean Harris” since July 27. This development signals that former President Donald Trump could potentially gain ground in a state that has consistently voted Democratic in the last 12 presidential elections. Minnesota’s governor, Tim Walz, is also Harris’ running mate.

Real Clear Polling now projects Trump with 219 Electoral College votes and Harris with 215, leaving 104 Electoral College votes still in play. Minnesota’s 10 votes are crucial, as the race tightens in battleground states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

The last time Minnesota was listed as a toss-up by Real Clear Polling was in March. Other forecasting outlets, however, still give Harris a slight edge. A recent Minnesota Star Tribune/MPR News/KARE 11 poll of 800 likely voters, conducted from September 16 to 18, shows Harris with a 5-point lead, at 48% to 43%, with a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points. Another MinnPost-Embold Research poll from early September showed similar results.

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Despite Harris’ lead, experts caution that undecided voters could swing toward Trump. “It’s quite possible — in Minnesota and elsewhere — that two-thirds of the 5 percent to 10 percent undecided will break in favor of Trump,” said Larry Jacobs of the University of Minnesota’s Center for the Study of Politics and Governance.

Real Clear Polling gives Harris a 5.3% lead over Trump, while other forecasts, like 538 and Cook Political Report, still categorize Minnesota as a likely Democratic win.

Read more at Newsweek.