Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility

7.3 Magnitude Earthquake Strikes Off Alaska Coast. No Danger to California

8 hours ago

Federal Immigration Crackdown Threatens California’s Historic Housing Reforms

13 hours ago

US House Clears Procedural Hurdle on Cryptocurrency Legislation

13 hours ago

Fresno County Lifts Evacuation Order for Max Fire Near Pine Flat Lake

14 hours ago

Newsom Calls Trump a ‘Son of a B***h’ Over ICE Raids and Guard Deployment

14 hours ago

Trump Indicated to Republican Lawmakers He Will Fire Fed’s Powell, CBS Reports

15 hours ago

Wall Street Steadies as Investors Assess Inflation Data, Earnings

16 hours ago

Trump Administration Sued by US States for Cutting Disaster Prevention Grants

16 hours ago

Open Mic Contest Offers Fans a Chance to Perform at Outside Lands 2025

18 hours ago

PBS and NPR Mount Last-Ditch Fight to Save Federal Funding

2 days ago
Democrats Poised to Flip Key California House Seats, New Poll Suggests
News
By News
Published 10 months ago on
September 24, 2024

New poll shows Democrats narrowly leading in four of six battleground California House races, with Central Valley contests particularly close. (GV Wire Composite/Paul Marshall)

Share

Getting your Trinity Audio player ready...

New polling data suggests Democrats are narrowly leading in four of California’s six most closely-watched swing districts for the U.S. House of Representatives. The survey, exclusively shared with Politico, was conducted by researchers from three California universities.

Central Valley Battlegrounds Show Tight Margins

In the Central Valley, Democrat Rudy Salas is leading Republican incumbent David Valadao by four points, 43% to 39%, in CA-22 (Bakersfield and Kern County). This represents the largest margin of any swing-seat challenger in the poll. In the neighboring CA-13 (Merced County), Democrat Adam Gray holds a slim two-point lead over Republican incumbent John Duarte, approximately 44% to 42%.

Christian Grose, the lead pollster and a political science professor at USC, cautioned that both leads fall within the poll’s 6% margin of error for these districts. He noted, “The rural Central Valley is notoriously difficult to poll due to low voter engagement.”

Democratic Enthusiasm vs. Republican Resilience

The survey also found that Democratic voters tend to be much more excited than their Republican counterparts about the House candidates on the ballot. Grose suggested this enthusiasm, combined with higher turnout in a presidential election year, could help Democrats flip seats in the Central Valley and Orange County suburbs.

However, Grose also pointed out that most Republican incumbents in purple districts are polling far better than former President Donald Trump and Republican Senate candidate Steve Garvey. This suggests Republicans could offset Democratic momentum by convincing voters to cast split ballots.

The poll, conducted from September 14-21, provides a rare glimpse into these battleground races, which aren’t often surveyed. As Grose summarized, “If the Democrats control the House in 2024, it’s probably because four or five of these districts flip. It truly is so close that everything on the margins can make a difference.”

Read more at Politico

RELATED TOPICS:

DON'T MISS

What Are Fresno Real Estate Experts Predicting for 2025 and Beyond?

DON'T MISS

First California EV Mandates Hit Automakers This Year. Most Are Not Even Close

DON'T MISS

Trump Says He Is Ending Government Funding California’s High-Speed Rail Project

DON'T MISS

Bakersfield Tax Return Preparer Pleads Guilty in $25 Million Fraud Scheme

DON'T MISS

Congressional Hopeful Lorenzo Rios Says No to PBS Funding. Once Led Local Station

DON'T MISS

US Attorney Beckwith Dismissed by Trump Admin, Replaced With Sanchez

DON'T MISS

Trump Says He Would Love for Fed Chair Powell to Resign

DON'T MISS

Trump Says Coca-Cola Agreed to Use Real Cane Sugar in US

DON'T MISS

7.3 Magnitude Earthquake Strikes Off Alaska Coast. No Danger to California

DON'T MISS

US Renewable Power Transmission Project Under Fire From Farmers

DON'T MISS

Fresno Detectives Nab Murder Suspect With Help From Riverside Sheriff’s Deputies

DON'T MISS

Bains Is Challenging Valadao. An Early Look at Fundraising.

UP NEXT

Bakersfield Tax Return Preparer Pleads Guilty in $25 Million Fraud Scheme

UP NEXT

Congressional Hopeful Lorenzo Rios Says No to PBS Funding. Once Led Local Station

UP NEXT

US Attorney Beckwith Dismissed by Trump Admin, Replaced With Sanchez

UP NEXT

Trump Says He Would Love for Fed Chair Powell to Resign

UP NEXT

Trump Says Coca-Cola Agreed to Use Real Cane Sugar in US

UP NEXT

7.3 Magnitude Earthquake Strikes Off Alaska Coast. No Danger to California

UP NEXT

US Renewable Power Transmission Project Under Fire From Farmers

UP NEXT

Fresno Detectives Nab Murder Suspect With Help From Riverside Sheriff’s Deputies

UP NEXT

Bains Is Challenging Valadao. An Early Look at Fundraising.

UP NEXT

Trump, White House Race to Stem Epstein Conspiracy Fallout

US Attorney Beckwith Dismissed by Trump Admin, Replaced With Sanchez

7 hours ago

Trump Says He Would Love for Fed Chair Powell to Resign

8 hours ago

Trump Says Coca-Cola Agreed to Use Real Cane Sugar in US

8 hours ago

7.3 Magnitude Earthquake Strikes Off Alaska Coast. No Danger to California

8 hours ago

US Renewable Power Transmission Project Under Fire From Farmers

9 hours ago

Fresno Detectives Nab Murder Suspect With Help From Riverside Sheriff’s Deputies

10 hours ago

Bains Is Challenging Valadao. An Early Look at Fundraising.

11 hours ago

Trump, White House Race to Stem Epstein Conspiracy Fallout

12 hours ago

Wired Wednesday: Judge Gives Green Light to 4-Story NW Fresno Apt. Complex

12 hours ago

Federal Immigration Crackdown Threatens California’s Historic Housing Reforms

13 hours ago

Trump Says He Is Ending Government Funding California’s High-Speed Rail Project

WASHINGTON – President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that he is ending government funding for California’s High-Speed Rail...

7 hours ago

A drone view of a California High-Speed Rail Bridge where it crosses through Fresno, California, U.S. June 8, 2025. (Reuters)
7 hours ago

Trump Says He Is Ending Government Funding California’s High-Speed Rail Project

7 hours ago

Bakersfield Tax Return Preparer Pleads Guilty in $25 Million Fraud Scheme

7 hours ago

Congressional Hopeful Lorenzo Rios Says No to PBS Funding. Once Led Local Station

7 hours ago

US Attorney Beckwith Dismissed by Trump Admin, Replaced With Sanchez

President Donald Trump looks on at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., July 16, 2025. (Reuters/Umit Bektas)
8 hours ago

Trump Says He Would Love for Fed Chair Powell to Resign

Coca-cola soda is shown on display during a preview of a new Walmart Super Center prior to its opening in Compton, California, U.S., January 10, 2017. (Reuters File)
8 hours ago

Trump Says Coca-Cola Agreed to Use Real Cane Sugar in US

8 hours ago

7.3 Magnitude Earthquake Strikes Off Alaska Coast. No Danger to California

Windmills line a hillside in Palm Springs, California, U.S., November 29, 2019. (Reuters File)
9 hours ago

US Renewable Power Transmission Project Under Fire From Farmers

Help continue the work that gets you the news that matters most.

Search

Send this to a friend