Four days before the midterm elections, a new wave of polling is sharpening the picture of the fight for Congress, with several Republican-held Senate seats remaining highly competitive and the House battlefield expanding.

Democrats continue to hold a sizable advantage in national congressional polling. The RealClearPolling average has Democrats at 51.4% and Republicans at 43.2%, an 8.2 percentage-point margin.

Recent surveys included in the average range from a 4-point Democratic advantage in Harvard-Harris polling to 9-point advantages in surveys from Cygnal, Economist/YouGov and Reuters/Ipsos.

The generic congressional ballot asks voters which party they would support for Congress without naming specific candidates. It provides a national snapshot but does not determine how individual House districts or Senate races will break.

House Battlefield Expands

The House map has shifted since GV Wire’s Tuesday look at the congressional landscape.

The Cook Political Report’s latest House ratings list 18 races as Toss Ups. Cook rates 186 seats Solid Democratic, 18 Likely Democratic, and 18 Lean Democratic. On the Republican side, 164 seats are Solid Republican, 14 are Likely Republican, and 17 are Lean Republican.

Cook also moved a dozen House races toward Democrats on Friday, further expanding the battlefield with four days remaining before Election Day.

Among Cook’s 18 Toss Ups are California’s 22nd Congressional District, where incumbent David G. Valadao, R-Hanford, faces Randy Villegas, and competitive seats in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Montana, North Carolina, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas, and Virginia.

Kansas Senate Race Nearly Even

One of the closest Senate contests is Kansas, where Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton is trying to unseat Republican Sen. Roger Marshall.

The latest RealClearPolling average in Kansas has Hamilton at 46.1% and Marshall at 45.9%, a difference of just 0.2 percentage points.

A CNN survey conducted Oct. 20-26 showed Hamilton ahead 49%-45%. Other recent polls have produced much tighter results, including an InsiderAdvantage survey showing Marshall ahead by 1 point and a Trafalgar Group poll showing the candidates tied.

Kansas is one of seven Senate contests rated Toss Ups in the Cook Political Report’s Senate ratings, along with Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas.

Talarico Holds Narrow Texas Polling Advantage

Texas also remains closely contested, with Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton competing for an open Senate seat.

The latest RealClearPolling average in Texas has Talarico at 48.6% and Paxton at 46.5%, a 2.1-point difference.

CNN’s latest survey showed Talarico ahead 49%-43%, while Texas Southern University/YouGov had him ahead 49%-47%. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 20-21 showed the race tied at 45%.

Other October surveys have also shown a close contest, including an Emerson poll with Talarico ahead by 1 point and a Fox News survey showing a tie.

El-Sayed’s Michigan Advantage Widens

Michigan is one of the most important Democratic-held seats on the map, and recent polling has shown Democrat Abdul El-Sayed with an advantage over Republican Mike Rogers.

The RealClearPolling average in Michigan has El-Sayed at 48.8% and Rogers at 45.6%, a 3.2-point margin.

Two of the newest surveys showed larger gaps. CNN had El-Sayed ahead 49%-42%, while CBS News/Mitchell showed him leading 51%-44%.

A Detroit News/Glengariff survey had El-Sayed ahead by 6 points, while InsiderAdvantage showed a much closer 47%-46% race.

Maine Remains Tight

Republican Sen. Susan Collins is also in a close race against Democrat Troy Jackson in Maine.

The RealClearPolling average has Jackson at 48.7% and Collins at 47.3%, a 1.4-point difference.

CNN polling conducted Oct. 20-26 showed Jackson ahead 49%-45%, while Marist had him ahead 49%-47%. A Trafalgar Group survey showed the race tied at 47%.

Fox News also found a tie, 49%-49%, illustrating how little separation there has been between the candidates in recent polling.

Brown Leads Husted in Ohio Polling

Former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown continues to hold a narrow polling advantage over Republican Sen. Jon Husted in Ohio’s special election.

The RealClearPolling average has Brown at 47.9% and Husted at 45.3%, a 2.6-point difference.

A Suffolk University survey conducted Oct. 21-26 showed Brown ahead 47%-44%, while InsiderAdvantage produced the same 3-point margin.

Fox News showed Brown ahead 52%-47%, although Rasmussen Reports earlier in October had Husted leading 49%-47%.

Iowa Is Essentially Even

Few races are closer than Iowa’s contest between Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek.

The RealClearPolling average has Hinson at 46% and Turek at 45.5%, a difference of half a percentage point.

The newest co/efficient survey, conducted Wednesday, showed Hinson ahead 48%-46%. InsiderAdvantage also had Hinson ahead by 2 points.

But other October surveys have gone in the opposite direction, including polling from Cook Political Report, YouGov and Marist that showed Turek ahead.

Seven Senate Toss Ups

The Cook Political Report currently rates seven Senate elections as Toss Ups: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas.

Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats, while Democrats hold 45 and two independents caucus with Democrats. That means Democrats would need a net gain of four seats to secure 51 seats.

With competitive Republican-held seats spanning Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Texas, while Democrats defend Michigan, the battle for the chamber remains concentrated in a relatively small group of closely contested states.

And with polling margins in several races sitting at only a few percentage points, Tuesday’s results could differ from the final polling averages within normal polling error.

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