Democrats enter the final week before the midterm elections with a sizable advantage in national congressional polling, while control of both chambers of Congress remains dependent on a comparatively small number of competitive races.

The RealClearPolling average of generic congressional ballot surveys Tuesday showed Democrats at 51.5% and Republicans at 43.4%, an 8.1 percentage-point Democratic advantage. Recent individual polls have shown Democratic margins ranging from 5 to 11 points.

An NPR/PBS/Marist poll released Tuesday showed Democrats leading Republicans 52% to 44% among voters asked which party they would support for Congress. Reuters/Ipsos, polling from Oct. 22 through Monday, found Democrats ahead 53% to 44%, while CBS News found a 53%-45% Democratic advantage.

The national numbers provide a broad measure of the political environment but do not translate directly into congressional seats, particularly because House elections are decided district by district and Senate races are decided statewide.

House Control Hinges on Competitive Districts

Republicans currently hold 218 House seats, compared with 214 Democrats and one independent, with two vacancies, according to the House clerk. A party generally needs 218 seats for a majority when all 435 seats are filled.

The Cook Political Report‘s latest House ratings share the number of races still in play. As of Friday, Cook classified 186 seats as Solid Democratic, 18 as Likely Democratic and 16 as Lean Democratic. It listed 168 as Solid Republican, 13 as Likely Republican and 17 as Lean Republican, with another 17 races rated Toss Up.

Several recent district-level polls also show why the House map remains competitive despite Democrats’ national polling advantage.

New York Times/Siena polling released Sunday showed Democrat Bob Harvie leading Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick 48%-46% in Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District, Democrat Janelle Stelson tied with Republican Rep. Scott Perry at 48% in Pennsylvania’s 10th District and Democratic challengers ahead by 5 points in Pennsylvania’s 7th and 8th districts.

Decision Desk HQ’s statistical forecast, gives Democrats a 80% probability of controlling the House and Republicans a 20% probability. Its model projects a 238-seat Democratic caucus, though election forecasts are estimates rather than polling results and can change as new information becomes available.

Senate Fight Comes Down to Republican-Held Seats

The Senate presents a different challenge.

Republicans currently hold 53 seats. Democrats hold 45, while independents Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine caucus with Democrats, effectively giving Democrats a 47-member coalition.

Because the vice president can break a 50-50 tie, Democrats would need to reach 51 seats to guarantee control, requiring a net gain of four seats.

Cook’s latest Senate ratings show seven races as Toss Ups: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas. Six of those seats are held by Republicans, while Michigan is held by Democrats. Cook rates Democratic-held Georgia and Republican-held North Carolina as Likely Democratic and New Hampshire and Minnesota as Lean Democratic.

Recent polling illustrates just how broad the Senate battlefield has become.

A Marist poll released Tuesday showed Democrat Graham Platner Jackson leading Republican Sen. Susan Collins 49%-47% in Maine. A Univision/YouGov poll found Democrat James Talarico ahead of Republican Ken Paxton 50%-45% in Texas, while a Detroit News/Glengariff poll showed Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leading Republican Mike Rogers 51%-45% in Michigan.

Other surveys have produced narrower margins.

Democrats Shown Ahead in Key Senate Races

RealClearPolling’s latest averages showed Democrats ahead by 1.4 points in Maine, 1.8 points in Texas, 2 points in Michigan, and 2.9 points in Ohio. Republicans held a 0.4-point average advantage in Iowa.

Democrats have been running further ahead in several other states. Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper led Republican Michael Whatley 51%-43% in a Quantus Insights North Carolina poll released Monday, while Democrat Chris Pappas led Republican Chris Sununu 50%-44% in a Rasmussen Reports New Hampshire poll.

The increasingly competitive races in states that President Donald Trump carried in 2024 have expanded the potential paths to Senate control.

Cook polling conducted Oct. 9-13 found Democrat Josh Turek leading Republican Ashley Hinson 46%-44% in Iowa, Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown ahead of Republican Sen. Jon Husted 49%-43% in Ohio, and Talarico leading Paxton 49%-44% in Texas.

Cook moved Kansas into its Toss Up category earlier this month and said its range of potential Democratic gains had expanded to between two and six seats. Democrats need four net pickups for a majority.

Decision Desk HQ’s forecast reflects the uncertainty. Its model, updated Monday, puts the Senate at a projected 51 Democratic seats and 49 Republican seats and assigns Democrats a 57% probability of controlling the chamber, compared with 43% for Republicans.

The same model gives Democrats a substantially larger advantage in the fight for the House, making the Senate the more closely divided of the two congressional contests in its simulations.