In February, agricultural analysts predicted a quiet year as they expected pistachio trees to take a year off from heavy production. Then the world changed.

Now, pistachio growers are preparing for three years of tumult as the 2026 crop could be 36% smaller than anticipated. That would send prices beyond the current highs as farmers prepare for what David Magaña, senior analyst with RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness, said could be a crop failure.

Magaña said things had looked stable in February, with profitability outlook steadily growing.

“Since then, obviously, we had a challenging pollination season in California that is going to reduce crop size in ’26 by about half if we compare it to the crop size of ’25,” Magaña said.

Global Demand Surges

With new demand for the nut surging globally and Iran, the second largest producing country beset by war, international consumers are eating up pistachios no matter the price.

But the reduced ’26 crop will make it difficult to keep consumers sated on the nut, possibly undoing inroads made by marketers in recent years.

Jim Zion, managing partner with Fresno-based Meridian Growers, said over the next three years, growers will have to be strategic about keeping sellers supplied. He predicts buyers to prioritize bulk pistachios over confectionary treats such as Dubai chocolate.

“We’re going to have a short supply, so it’s going to be pretty tight until we get into the ’27 crop,” Zion said. “So right now, we’ll just try to make sure we keep as many buyers happy as possible.”

Even High Prices May Not Make Up for Crop Losses

Coming off of a record crop for 2025-26, growers knew that the upcoming harvest would be small, Magaña said.

Trees have to recover from the 1.6 billion pounds they produced last year, and so researchers forecast about 1.1 billion pounds for 2026.

Two weeks after Magaña published his February report, however, the U.S. went to war with Iran. Two weeks after that, record heat in March caused male trees to blossom before their female counterparts, causing pollination failures in orchards across the Valley.

Emerging technologies allow growers to collect pollen from male trees and distribute it later to female trees, Magaña said. That tech is still not widespread and reliable, as that pollen has a short shelf life.

As harvest begins this week, growers will likely see far more “blanks” — meaning hulls with no meat.

Highest Pistachio Prices Since 2015

Now, experts expect between 700 million and 800 million pounds in the upcoming season, likely driving the current $5-a-pound price higher for next year, Zion said. Pistachio prices haven’t been that high since 2015, another year considered a crop failure.

Sellers are talking with clients about that possibility, he said.

Pollination failures aren’t evenly distributed, however, dividing growers into haves and have-nots.

Zion said the Arizona crop is “almost non-existent” due to hot spring weather.

In California, mid-state growers seem to have done OK, but south to Kings County, “it looks pretty poor down there,” Zion said.

“Let’s say you get $3 a pound for your product, but you only have a thousand pounds, where normally you’d have two or 3,000 pounds and maybe you get $2 a pound, you’re better off,” Zion said.

Shrinking Market Could Limit Dubai Chocolate

That drastically reduced supply comes as the world has been gobbling up U.S. nuts. Dubai chocolate opened up new uses for pistachios.

The rise of weight-loss GLP-1 medications also attracted new consumers, Magaña said.

“Consumers under GLP-1 tend to trade up to go for more premium items that have a higher protein content, higher fiber content, and products that are more natural. That means less processing. Pistachios check all those boxes,” Magaña said.

Years of drought in Turkey and Iran have slowed those historical powerhouses. War in Iran has complicated the ability of growers in that country to move product. That means very little carryover from this year’s bumper crop to keep store shelves supplied.

So when the upcoming selling season hits, buyers will scramble to buy up what they can. Meanwhile, sellers will have to find a price that satisfies growers, processors, and consumers.

Zion said conversations about upcoming pricing is underway with buyers.

The problem for pistachios is they’re still considered an emerging product in the snack world. Grocery stores will always have a place for potato chips and peanuts, but if pistachio growers can’t keep store shelves stocked, grocers will find something else to put in their place.

“It can be worked negatively if we’re not on the shelves, which is why I think you’re going to see a lot of these buyers hold back on new product developments in anticipation,” Zion said. “They’re just going to do the bare minimum to keep it on top of the shelf.”

Zion expects the confectionary business — including the beloved Dubai chocolate —to be hardest hit as marketers focus on selling the familiar in-shell and kernel bulk nuts.

Rollercoaster of Supply

Magaña and Zion expect a following bumper crop for ’27, even bigger than ’25. However, that will depend on the expected super El Niño does for California weather.

Poor pollination this year means producing trees have had extra time to rest, Magaña said, which will likely boost production if the weather favors the trees.

Trees like cold weather as they can go into dormancy and further rest, but they haven’t gotten much cold weather in recent years.

While El Niño will likely bring strong rains, it will also likely bring warmer weather. So predicting the ’27 crop will be especially difficult, Magaña said.

If predictions hold true, production could surpass 2 billion pounds, he added. With a 1.7 billion pound processing capacity, growers will scrambling to sell. And the constant ups-and-downs could make buyers weary.

“You will likely have two problems,” Magaña said. “A lack of processing capacity, and some customers that you didn’t sell pistachios to this year, now you want to sell record-crop pistachios.”