As they’ve done for decades, almond growers are voting on whether to continue to fund the Almond Board of California. The vote comes after years of collapsing prices caused by oversupply — from excessive plantings and backlogs caused by shipping chokeholds following the pandemic.

Experts now see prices stabilizing as global demand for the nut strengthens.

Every five years, the U.S. Department of Agriculture sends out ballots to California’s almond growers to see if they will pay an additional three cents per pound to fund the quasi-governmental agency.

The Modesto-based Almond Board helps growers sell the nut by marketing the crop in domestic and global consumer markets.

One advertising initiative has been with NFL Hall of Famer and University of Colorado coach Deion Sanders, said Rick Kushman, manager of media relations for the group. With health studies coming out about almonds, they’re emphasizing the nut’s ability to help with post-workout recoveries.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the world, the group is expanding markets culturally familiar with almonds.

“We’ve always sort of targeted people most likely to buy almonds and healthy food… but with the Deion Sanders campaign, the notion was really to open new consumers in America, and all the evidence is that it’s working,” Kushman said.

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Almond Industry Saw Opportunity with ‘Coach Prime’

After his time with the Dallas Cowboys, San Francisco 49ers, and other teams, Sanders came back in a big way with the streaming documentary “Coach Prime.” The show provides a window into Sanders’ takeover of the struggling Colorado football program and its transformation into a high-profile winner.

The Almond Board saw it as an opportunity to reach new consumers. Sanders has long used almonds as part of his workout recovery regimen, he said during ads. The testimony accompanied a study paid for by the Almond Board showing people who occasionally worked out had less fatigue after eating almonds.

“Ain’t no secret to staying in your prime, you just got to want it, baby,” Sanders says in an ad featuring Buffaloes players. “Eating almonds can help you recover from exercise, so eat your almonds. Own your prime.”

Kushman said regardless of how you feel about Sanders, he gets people interested.

“Some people don’t like Deion Sanders, but some people do, and the fact that this really high-profile guy talks about the benefits of it is something that helps, for whatever it’s worth, spokespeople really have influence,” Kushman said.

Almond Backlog Clearing

Shipping issues during the COVID-19 pandemic created historic oversupply of the nut. With a shelf life of two years, sellers know that with each season, they will have to sell some of last year’s supply — called a carryin.

But container shortages and port shutdowns in 2020 and 2021 made it hard to get almonds abroad.

In the 2022-23 crop year, the industry had in excess of 836 million pounds from the previous year, compared to 608 million the year before and 450 million the year before that, according to crop reports.

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That created a buyer’s market.

“First, we couldn’t get the products out across the world,” Kushman said. “And second, the people who were buying it knew they could not have to pay a lot.”

With those backlogs cleared up, demand has been growing consistently. California began the crop year — which starts in August — with 503 million pounds, said Michael Easterbrook, managing partner with Stratamarkets.

Foreign markets have also been clearing out inventories, helping create demand, Easterbrook said. That’s helped increase prices. Export prices at the beginning of the year were about $2.45 a pound, now up to $2.85 a pound. Last crop year’s price averaged $2.17. The $2.85 figure is the best price since Stratamarkets began tracking the data in 2020, Easterbrook said.

“There’s a lot of talk that buyers in the big consumption markets, those are U.S., Europe, India, Middle East, China, that they had kind of let inventories run down,” Easterbrook said. “So they started the crop year with pretty good demand. They all needed to buy.”

Grow Where Your Known: Deloitte to Almond Board

During the worst of the pandemic, the Almond Board contracted with Deloitte Consulting to come up with a marketing strategy, Kushman said. What the firm told them was to focus on markets  culturally familiar with the nut, rather than trying to make the almond known elsewhere.

That meant a renewed focus on India and Morocco. With India’s burgeoning youth, they can create long-time consumers, Kushman said. The subcontinent also knows the nut well, which means finding a way to incorporate it naturally into their diet.

Germany’s consumption has also been growing, Kushman said.

Last year, the industry shipped 200 million pounds for 11 straight months, a level never before seen, Kushman said. Already in this crop year, the trend has continued with two months also exceeding 200 million pounds.

“It tells you that demand is both strong and consistent,” Kushman said.

Will Tariffs Negatively Impact Almonds?

However, the industry could face new challenges with the incoming administration, as President-elect Donald Trump has vowed significant tariffs against China, Mexico, and Canada, all major consumers of almonds.

Kushman said it is too early to tell what proposed tariffs could do to the market.

A majority of the almond crop goes to export. Year-to-date, the industry exported just under 2 billion pounds of the 2.7-billion-pound harvest its shipped this year, according to the October crop report.

After Trump enacted significant tariffs against China in his first term, the country enacted retaliatory tariffs. Those hurt exports of citrus, pistachios, and almonds, among others.

Ag export values to China dropped from $15 billion to less than $10 billion in fiscal year 2019 after Chinese actions, according to the USDA Economic Research Service.

Those countries are not insignificant.

From Aug. 1 to Oct. 31, the industry has shipped 25 million pounds to Canada and Mexico and 26 million pounds to China, according to crop reports.

Almond Plantings Decrease

The increase in almond prices comes as the industry forecast an enormous crop year this year, Easterbrook said. But already, it appears to be a bit smaller than anticipated.

Bearing acreage has remained stagnant for the most part, growing year-over-year by only 9,000 acres — the smallest amount in two decades, according to the Almond Board’s November news release. Growers are pulling out non-bearing acres at a faster click, the release stated.

The size of orchards planted in 2022, 2023, and 2024 dropped by 47,000 acres to 142,000 acres.

“Three straight years of decreased acreage and sizeable orchard removals reflect a trend toward lower overall California almond acreage,” said Clarice Turner, Almond Board president and CEO in the release.

“At the same time, we continue to see strong shipments — in the past crop year, for the first time ever, we shipped more than 200 million pounds in 11 consecutive months, plus for the year, we shipped 300 million pounds more than we produced. We know global demand for California almonds continues to grow.”