Fresno County Elections Clerk James Kus wants a 100% turnout for the Nov. 5 election, and his staff is preparing for such a scenario.

Practically and historically, that won’t happen. Preparations, from mailings to setting up voting centers, are underway.

The voting season for the Nov. 5 election starts Monday, Oct. 7.

That is the date Fresno County will mail ballots to approximately 511,000 registered voters, in-person voting starts, and drop boxes are open. The mailing, Kus said, costs the county $66,000 in postage.

Every registered voter will receive a ballot, which can be returned by postal mail — no stamps required.

Strictly speaking, voting has already started. The county mailed ballots to overseas military personnel between Sept. 6 and Sept 21.

Starting Oct. 7, voters can cast ballots in person at the county election office (2221 Kern Street in downtown Fresno). More voting centers will open throughout the county on Oct. 26 and Nov. 2.

Ballots must be returned by Nov. 5 at 8 p.m. Ballots postmarked by Nov. 5 and received by Nov. 12 will count.

Results must be certified by Dec. 3.

How Many Voters Will Turn Out?

Election data shows presidential years draw better than midterm elections, and November elections draw better than primaries.

The 2020 general election saw a 75% voter turnout, the highest since 2008. That was still below the 81% statewide turnout for 2020.

Fresno State political science professor Thomas Holyoke doubts there will be a large turnout this year.

“As for Fresno County voter turnout, it has historically been on the low side and I doubt this election is going to change that. I don’t get the impression that the presidential election resonates strongly with voters here,” Holyoke said.

Holyoke said there are pockets of Trump and Harris supporters, “but I don’t think that overall there is a lot of interest in either candidate. That alone will depress turnout.”

A “dud” election for U.S. Senate — where Democrat Adam Schiff is favored over Republican Steve Garvey — may also hold back local turnout.

The professor said it is up to local candidates  — for Congress and other local races — to attract voters to the polls.

“Whomever is better organized at the grassroots level is likely to carry the day in a low-turn out election,” Holyoke said.