Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility
California’s Economic Outlook Worsens as Newsom Travels Overseas
By admin
Published 1 year ago on
October 24, 2023

Share

While Gov. Gavin Newsom polishes his foreign policy credentials with visits to Israel and China, California is experiencing an economic slowdown that could bode ill for the final three years of his governorship.

Dan Walters with a serious expression

Dan Walters

CalMatters

Opinion

The state’s latest employment report, issued last week for September, found fewer Californians employed than there were a year earlier, while the jobless ranks had increased by 144,100. The state’s unemployment rate creeped up to 4.7%, the second highest of any state, while the labor force – Californians working or looking for work – continued to decline.

“Census figures released this week reveal the extent to which households continue to leave California,” Taner Osman, research manager at Beacon Economics, said in an analysis of the job data. “The state’s population has fallen by half-a-million people over the past three years and this is filtering through to the economy, where the labor force has shrunk and employers are struggling to find workers.”

The darkening employment picture is particularly evident in the San Francisco Bay Area, traditionally the state’s most prosperous region, whose high-income technology workers have been a major source of income taxes.

The San Jose Mercury News calculated that the nine-county region has seen declining employment for three straight months as technology companies shed staff.

“The Bay Area economy may have shifted from just treading water to a period of backsliding under the weight of higher for longer interest rates, slowing consumer and business demand, and weaker growth in Asia and around the globe,” Scott Anderson, chief U.S. economist for BMO Capital Markets, told the Mercury News.

Outflow of Higher-Income Workers from California

The state’s population loss, cited by Osman of Beacon Economics, has taken on a new and ominous aspect, according to recent research by the Public Policy Institute of California. In the past, PPIC’s demographers have said that losses generally were in lower-income Californians seeking lower costs of living. But they now see a significant outflow of higher-income workers and their families – the people who generate the lion’s share of California’s tax revenues.

The PPIC found that “an increasing proportion of higher-income Californians are also exiting the state. The ‘new normal’ of remote work in many white-collar professions has enabled some higher-income workers to move. Politics might also play a role, as conservatives are much more likely than liberals to say they have considered leaving the state.”

No matter what the motives, California’s population drain negatively affects the state’s finances. Newsom and legislators dealt with a $35 billion deficit in the 2023-24 budget enacted in June and expect another $15 billion gap for 2024-25. Sluggish revenues indicate that the shortfall could be worse.

The six-month delay in the income tax filing deadline, from April to October, made revenue forecasting more guesswork than usual. But last week the deadline was kicked back another month, to Nov. 16, meaning Newsom won’t have much hard data as he finalizes his proposed 2024-25 budget in December.

“Through Friday, October 20, the Franchise Tax Board (FTB) has collected $17.3 billion of personal income tax (PIT) and corporation tax (CT) receipts this month,” the state Assembly’s budget director, Jason Sisney, said in an email. “This is far below the $44.9 billion of FTB collections projected for the entire month of October 2023. Given the previous October 16 tax deadline announced in the spring, I expect FTB would have collected over $30 billion by now if receipts were on track to hit that $44.9 billion projection.”

So did the startlingly low income tax revenues Sisney cites stem from corporations and high-income Californians delaying their filings at the last minute, or does it signal a more fundamental impact of a weak economy?

About the Author

Dan Walters has been a journalist for nearly 60 years, spending all but a few of those years working for California newspapers. He began his professional career in 1960, at age 16, at the Humboldt Times. CalMatters is a public interest journalism venture committed to explaining how California’s state Capitol works and why it matters. For more columns by Dan Walters, go to calmatters.org/commentary.

Make Your Voice Heard

GV Wire encourages vigorous debate from people and organizations on local, state, and national issues. Submit your op-ed to rreed@gvwire.com for consideration. 

RELATED TOPICS:

DON'T MISS

What Are Fresno Real Estate Experts Predicting for 2025 and Beyond?

DON'T MISS

First California EV Mandates Hit Automakers This Year. Most Are Not Even Close

DON'T MISS

Fresno County Pushes Valley to Highest Rates of Domestic Violence Calls in CA

DON'T MISS

LA Rams Can Bolster a Contending Roster With Another Strong Showing in NFL Draft

DON'T MISS

Mijo Proves Love Is Blind and That One Eye Is More Than Enough

DON'T MISS

Taking a Mental Health Leave From Work Is an Option Most People Don’t Know About

DON'T MISS

Hey PG&E Customers, Get Ready for New ‘Transaction Fees’

DON'T MISS

Fresno County Ending ‘Squaw Valley’ Fight After Latest Court Ruling

DON'T MISS

Exclusive: Tesla to Delay US Launch of Affordable EV, a Lower-Cost Model Y, Sources Say

DON'T MISS

Clovis Reconsiders Recycling Vote. Will a Campaign Contribution Matter?

DON'T MISS

Gov. Newsom Offers $50K Reward in 2022 Kings County Homicide

DON'T MISS

Trump’s White House Launches COVID Website That Criticizes WHO, Fauci and Biden

UP NEXT

Why Is It So Expensive to Build Affordable Homes in CA? It Takes Too Long

UP NEXT

What Some Animals Endure Before We Eat Them

UP NEXT

Zakaria Warns of ‘Crony Capitalism’ in Trump’s Tariff Reversal

UP NEXT

How California Can Reduce High Concession Prices in Its Taxpayer-Funded Stadiums

UP NEXT

Why Palestinian Christians Feel Betrayed by American Christians

UP NEXT

Other States Do Housing Better Than California; a New Study Shows How They Do It

UP NEXT

Trump and Netanyahu Steer Toward an Ugly World, Together

UP NEXT

New Plan to Accelerate CA High-Speed Rail Construction Deserves Attention, Support

UP NEXT

Why Did So Many People Delude Themselves About Trump?

UP NEXT

LA Feud Is Prime Example of Constant Clashes Between CA Cities and Counties

Taking a Mental Health Leave From Work Is an Option Most People Don’t Know About

2 hours ago

Hey PG&E Customers, Get Ready for New ‘Transaction Fees’

19 hours ago

Fresno County Ending ‘Squaw Valley’ Fight After Latest Court Ruling

19 hours ago

Exclusive: Tesla to Delay US Launch of Affordable EV, a Lower-Cost Model Y, Sources Say

19 hours ago

Clovis Reconsiders Recycling Vote. Will a Campaign Contribution Matter?

20 hours ago

Gov. Newsom Offers $50K Reward in 2022 Kings County Homicide

20 hours ago

Trump’s White House Launches COVID Website That Criticizes WHO, Fauci and Biden

21 hours ago

Fresno ‘Powers Up’ the Nation’s Largest Combined Solar and Battery Storage Project

21 hours ago

Trump Admin Asserts COVID-19 Originated in Chinese Lab, Targets Fauci

22 hours ago

Vendors Back at Fresno’s Art Hop? Survey Wants to Know What You Think

22 hours ago

Fresno County Pushes Valley to Highest Rates of Domestic Violence Calls in CA

Across most of the San Joaquin Valley, calls to law enforcement to report domestic violence have remained steady — or even gone down — in re...

12 minutes ago

12 minutes ago

Fresno County Pushes Valley to Highest Rates of Domestic Violence Calls in CA

Rams
32 minutes ago

LA Rams Can Bolster a Contending Roster With Another Strong Showing in NFL Draft

Mijo, a one-eyed puppy with a heart full of love, is winning hearts everywhere and proving he's the perfect companion for any home.
47 minutes ago

Mijo Proves Love Is Blind and That One Eye Is More Than Enough

2 hours ago

Taking a Mental Health Leave From Work Is an Option Most People Don’t Know About

19 hours ago

Hey PG&E Customers, Get Ready for New ‘Transaction Fees’

19 hours ago

Fresno County Ending ‘Squaw Valley’ Fight After Latest Court Ruling

Tesla Inc. vehicle facility is pictured in Costa Mesa, California, U.S., November 1, 2023. (REUTERS/Mike Blake/File Photo)
19 hours ago

Exclusive: Tesla to Delay US Launch of Affordable EV, a Lower-Cost Model Y, Sources Say

20 hours ago

Clovis Reconsiders Recycling Vote. Will a Campaign Contribution Matter?

Help continue the work that gets you the news that matters most.

Search

Send this to a friend