President Donald Trump takes questions from reporters after signing an executive order in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, March 31, 2026. (Doug Mills/The New York Times)
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Diplomacy between Washington and Tehran has not collapsed despite Vice President JD Vance’s abrupt departure from talks in Islamabad, with discussions potentially resuming there within days, according to reporting by Trita Parsi.
The Iran ceasefire appears to have shifted leverage back toward President Donald Trump, who entered the standoff facing rising gasoline prices at home and limited escalation options abroad. Analysts say each potential U.S. move risked Iranian retaliation against U.S. assets and Gulf energy routes.
The ceasefire, however, may allow Trump to disengage without Tehran’s approval, while Iran retains influence over the Strait of Hormuz but faces pressure to secure sanctions relief and a durable end to hostilities.
While Iran previously believed it held its strongest negotiating position since 1979, the balance may be tilting as Washington signals it can walk away. Trump can now frame withdrawal as a strategic exit, shifting regional and economic consequences.
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