Consumer confidence wavers in the US as Americans weigh near-term outlooks, impacting economic sentiment. (AP File)
- The Conference Board reports a slight dip in consumer confidence in June, with expectations for the near future showing a decline.
- Despite the drop, Americans' view of current economic conditions improved slightly, reflecting ongoing strength in the labor market.
- Analysts note that while job gains in May exceeded expectations, signs of labor market weakening are starting to emerge, warranting close monitoring.
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American consumers lost some confidence in June as expectations over the near-term future fell again.
The Conference Board, a business research group, said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index fell in June to 100.4 from 101.3 in May. The index’s decline was not quite as bad as analysts were expecting.
Understanding the Consumer Confidence Index
The index measures both Americans’ assessment of current economic conditions and their outlook for the next six months.
The measure of Americans’ short-term expectations for income, business and the job market fell to 73 from 74.9 in May. A reading under 80 can signal a potential recession in the near future.
Consumers’ view of current conditions rose in June to 141.5, up from 140.8 in May.
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Impact on the Labor Market
“Confidence pulled back in June but remained within the same narrow range that’s held throughout the past two years, as strength in current labor market views continued to outweigh concerns about the future,” said Dana Peterson, the Conference Board’s chief economist.
Even though the unemployment rate ticked up to 4% in May, America’s employers added a strong 272,000 jobs last month, a sign that companies are still confident enough in the economy to keep hiring despite persistently high interest rates.
Last month’s sizable job gain was propelled by consumer spending on travel, entertainment and other services. U.S. airports reported near-record traffic over the Memorial Day weekend.
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Signs of Weakening in the Labor Market
Despite the better-than-expected job gains in May, there is some visible weakening in the labor market: job postings for April hit their lowest level since 2021 and the number of Americans who are receiving unemployment benefits has risen for seven straight weeks.
On Monday, Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Fed, said that the labor market remained healthy but that future slowing could trigger higher unemployment, something that needs to be monitored closely.
Most economic indicators show the U.S. economy in good shape by historical standards, though there have been some signs that growth is slowing.
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The nation’s economy slowed sharply in the first quarter to a 1.3% annual pace in the face of high interest rates, down from a brisk 3.4% growth rate in the final three months of 2023.
Retail sales inched up just 0.1% in May from April as still high prices on groceries and other necessities and high interest rates curbed spending.
More cautious spending in the face of inflation has some big retailers offering discounts this summer. The latest quarterly earnings reported by big retailers show that while consumers have not stopped spending, they are becoming more price-conscious and choosy.
Consumer expectations of a recession in the next year pulled back in June after rising the previous two months, the Conference Board said.
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