KYIV, Ukraine — For much of the past four years, Hungary was a persistent source of irritation for Ukraine. An outlier in Europe, Hungary maintained friendly relations with Russia while blocking critical European Union funding for Ukraine and stalling Ukraine’s path toward integration into the bloc.

After the election defeat Sunday of Viktor Orban, Hungary’s longtime prime minister and the architect of its pro-Kremlin policy, many Ukrainians were hoping for a turning point.

One Ukrainian lawmaker celebrated in Budapest’s streets by chanting, “Russians, go home!” — a slogan embraced by supporters of Peter Magyar, the victorious opposition leader. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine struck a more diplomatic tone in a congratulatory message to Magyar on social media, but the Ukrainian leader’s hope for improved ties was clear.

“Ukraine has always sought good-neighbourly relations with everyone in Europe and we are ready to advance our cooperation with Hungary,” Zelenskyy wrote.

In the immediate term, Sunday’s election result could deliver a much-needed financial boost for Ukraine. Since February, Orban has blocked a loan of 90 billion euros (about $105 billion) to Ukraine, leaving the government at risk of running out of funds by the end of spring. His defeat is expected to clear the way for the loan to be disbursed.

“It looks as if this sort of Trojan horse for Russia within the EU may disappear,” said Andreas Umland, a policy fellow at the new European Policy Institute in Kyiv, Ukraine. “That was the main problem of Ukraine: Hungary functioned not as a EU member but as an agent of Russia within the EU.”

Maygar’s Clear Anti-Russian Stance

In the longer term, it is unclear how Magyar’s victory might benefit Ukraine.

Magyar adopted a clear anti-Russian stance during his campaign, separating himself from Orban, who was aligned ideologically with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and relied on Russia for critical energy imports.

But Magyar has stopped short of endorsing additional financial aid to Ukraine, and he has opposed an accelerated timeline for the country’s integration into the EU, saying Ukraine should meet all the standard requirements before being admitted. The Hungarian electorate has been divided on both of those issues.

Ukraine has long had a complex relationship with Hungary, with which it shares a 64-mile border. Tensions have often centered on the sizable ethnic Hungarian minority in Ukraine’s Zakarpattia region — up to 150,000 people. Disputes over language and education rights have strained ties, which Orban has exacerbated through an assertive policy of backing Hungarian minorities abroad.

The relationship hit a low during the war as Hungary, while initially condemning Russia’s aggression, maintained friendly ties with the Kremlin and increasingly worked against Ukraine’s interests in Europe. In particular, Budapest consistently blocked the opening of EU accession talks for Ukraine, cementing its reputation as a spoiler in Kyiv and becoming a recurrent target of criticism by Ukrainian officials.

“Every ‘Viktor’ who lives off European money while trying to sell out European interests deserves a smack upside the head,” Zelenskyy said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, this year, in a reference to Orban.

The tensions worsened before the Hungarian election, with Orban making hostility to Ukraine a centerpiece of his campaign.

Orban Accused Ukraine of Trying to Hurt Hungary’s Economy

Orban accused Ukraine of delaying repairs to a pipeline crossing its territory that carries Russian fuel to Hungary and Slovakia. He called this an effort to damage Hungary’s economy and to blackmail it into supporting Ukraine in the war.

In response, Budapest blocked the 90 billion euro loan. It went on to veto new EU sanctions against Russia, and then it seized millions of euros in cash and gold from Ukrainian armored bank vehicles traveling through Hungary, suggesting the money was of dubious origin.

Hungary’s blocking of the loan has been a burden for Ukraine, which desperately needs the funds to sustain its war effort as the fighting continues and peace negotiations have largely fizzled out. A ceasefire for Orthodox Easter, brokered with Russia over the weekend, appeared to largely falter, with each side accusing the other of violations.

About two-thirds of the loan money had been earmarked for purchasing weapons, while the rest was intended to support the Ukrainian budget and economy. Without the funds, a top Ukrainian lawmaker warned in February, Ukraine may be headed toward a “financial tragedy.”

Whether Hungary will shift from spoiler to supporter of Ukraine remains to be seen, however.

Public opinion in Hungary remains skeptical of fully backing Kyiv. A recent poll by the European Council on Foreign Relations found that 60% of Hungarians were opposed to financial support for Ukraine from their government. Magyar’s supporters were evenly divided on the issue.

Hungary Is Dependent on Russian Oil

Hungary also remains highly dependent on Russian oil. The Center for the Study of Democracy, a Bulgaria-based research group, found in a recent report that Hungary’s reliance on Russian crude had risen during the war in Ukraine to 93% of its imports last year, from 61% in 2021.

That means that Magyar, who has vowed to wean Hungary off Russian oil but has also acknowledged that he cannot do so quickly, is likely to have to press for the reopening of the pipeline carrying Russian oil to Hungary through Ukraine. The potential for friction is high since Ukraine has been reluctant to restore an oil route that effectively generates revenue for its adversary in the war.

“We shouldn’t be idealistic,” said Tetiana Horbatiuk, 39, a social media marketing manager and resident of Kyiv. “First of all,” she added, “Magyar will act in the interests of his own country, not Ukraine.”

One longer-term source of friction will be Ukraine’s wish for fast-track accession to the EU. Ukrainian officials have expressed hope that Orban’s departure will help lift Hungary’s veto on opening accession talks.

But Magyar has also opposed a speedy path into the bloc for Ukraine. And some European diplomats have privately acknowledged the benefit of Hungary’s spoiler role in negotiations that lack unanimous support among member states. They note that integrating Ukraine would be complex given the country’s size and economic challenges.

On that issue, Umland said that skeptical European members would not be able to “hide behind Hungary anymore.”

(Olha Konovalova contributed reporting.)

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This article originally appeared in The New York Times.

By Constant Méheut/Tierney L. Cross

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