WASHINGTON — Deaths from starvation will likely pass famine levels in northern Gaza as soon as next month owing to Israel’s “near-total blockade” of food and other aid, the U.S.-created global food-crisis monitor said on Tuesday.

The finding by the Famine Early Warning System Network appeared to expose a rift within the Biden administration over the extent of starvation in northern Gaza, with the U.S. ambassador to Israel, Jacob Lew, disputing part of the data used in reaching the conclusion and calling the stepped-up famine warning “irresponsible.”

Northern Gaza has been one of the areas hardest-hit by fighting and Israel’s restrictions on aid throughout its 14-month war with Hamas militants. Israel at one point increased the number of aid deliveries it permitted into northern Gaza under pressure from President Joe Biden.

But the U.N. and aid groups say Israel recently has blocked almost all aid again. Only nine U.N. trucks have been able to bring in food and water over the past 2 1/2 months, Oxfam says.

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Israel’s Stance on Aid Deliveries

Israel says it has been operating in recent months against Hamas militants still active in northern Gaza. It says the vast majority of the area’s residents have fled and relocated to Gaza City, where most aid destined for the north is delivered. But some critics, including a former defense minister, have accused Israel of carrying out ethnic cleansing in Gaza’s far north, near the Israeli border.

FEWS Net said unless Israel changes its policy, it expects the number of people dying of starvation and related ailments in northern Gaza to reach between two and 15 per day sometime between next month and March.

The internationally recognized mortality threshold for famine is two or more deaths a day per 10,000 people.

Cindy McCain, the American head of the U.N. World Food Program, in a Dec. 15 appearance on CBS’ “Face the Nation” called for political pressure to get food flowing to Palestinians trapped in north Gaza.

“We need unfettered access. We need a ceasefire and we need it now,” she said. “We can’t … sit by and just allow these people to starve to death.”

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US Support and Political Implications

FEWS Net was created by the U.S. Agency for International Development in the mid-1980s to warn of global food crises.

The United States, Israel’s main backer, provided a record amount of military support in the first year of the war. At the same time, the Biden administration repeatedly urged Israel to allow more access to aid deliveries in Gaza overall, and warned that failing to do so could trigger U.S. restrictions on military support. The administration recently said Israel was making improvements and declined to carry out its threat of restrictions.

Military support for Israel’s war in Gaza is politically charged in the United States. Republicans and some Democrats have staunchly opposed any effort to limit U.S. support over the suffering of Palestinian civilians trapped in the conflict. The Biden administration’s reluctance to do more to press Israel for improved treatment of civilians undercut support for Democrats in last month’s elections.

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US Ambassador Challenges Famine Warning

Lew, the U.S. ambassador, challenged the famine warning in a posting on social media, saying it was based on “outdated and inaccurate” data.

He pointed to uncertainty over how many of the 65,000 people remaining in northern Gaza had fled in recent weeks, saying that skewed the findings. FEWS said its famine assessment holds even if as few as 10,000 remain there.

“We work day and night with the U.N. and our Israeli partners to meet humanitarian needs — which are great — and relying on inaccurate data is irresponsible.,” Lew wrote.