Michael Maher is optimistic that the remaining votes in his congressional race against incumbent Jim Costa (D-Fresno) will flip his way.

The Kingsburg Republican spoke with reporters Wednesday afternoon as the latest election returns showed Costa leading by 1,009 votes, or 0.8%.

“I’m being told by many people we have a very significant path to victory. I think it’s going to be a roller coaster,” Maher said at his Kingsburg campaign office on Wednesday.

He compared his situation with John Duarte (R-Modesto), who was down on Election Day in 2022, before being declared the winner.

“Every time the update has come out, we continue to get closer and closer and closer. And typically, the ballots that do come in later tend to favor the Republican candidate,” Maher said.

First elected in 2004, Costa ran for his 10th term. He hasn’t had a race this close since 2014, when Johnny Tacherra actually went to Washington for orientation but Costa eventually won that race.

Costa’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment by GV Wire.

Lack of Outside Support

Campaign finance records show Costa raising more than double against Maher, at $1.5 million. He also spent twice as much on the campaign.

Maher did not benefit from outside spending from Republican groups like neighboring Republicans David Valadao (R-Kings County) and John Duarte (R-Modesto).

Open Secrets reports only $157 from third-parties supported Maher.

“It is a race that was looked at as an easy win (for Costa). It was a race that hasn’t been on people’s radar. I thought they were missing it. I really feel like nationally we constantly overlook the Central Valley,” Maher said.

How Many Votes Remain?

It is unclear exactly how many votes remain in CA-21, which includes Fresno (78% of voters) and Tulare (22% of voters) counties. The district is 41% Democrats, a 14-point registration advantage over Republicans.

Maher believes there are up to 70,000 ballots outstanding. Paul Mitchell, vice president of election analyst Political Data, said about 100,000.

“And they will shift Democratic,” Mitchell said.

Immigration and Trump

Maher talked about his support for establishing legal identification cards for immigrants.

“This is a way that actually provides a lot more checks and verifications and also is a service to everyone,” Maher said.

He acknowledged that might conflict with the immigration viewpoints of President-elect Donald Trump.

“I hope his immigration views align with mine,” Maher said.