Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility

Prime Minister of Yemen’s Houthi Government Killed in Israeli Strike

2 days ago

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott Signs Law Redrawing Congressional Maps

3 days ago

US Air Force will Offer Military Funeral Honors to Slain Capitol Rioter

3 days ago

US Republican Senator Joni Ernst Will Not Run for Re-Election, CBS News Reports

3 days ago

Wall Street Falls as Dell, Nvidia Drive Tech Losses

3 days ago

US Denies Visas to Palestinian Officials Ahead of UN General Assembly

3 days ago

Minneapolis Children Revealed Courage, Absorbed Fear During Church Shooting

4 days ago

Ford Recalls Nearly 500,000 Vehicles Over Brake Fluid Leak

4 days ago

Fresno-Bound Passenger Says Delta Attendant Slapped Him, Seeks $20M

4 days ago
Trump Is Winning Big With His Base, But There's No Sign That He's Broadening Support
gvw_ap_news
By Associated Press
Published 2 years ago on
February 26, 2024

Share

Getting your Trinity Audio player ready...

VoteCast surveys reveal a shift in Republican party’s policy stance.

Nikki Haley’s supporters are a minority within the GOP.

Republican party now favors some big government programs.


WASHINGTON — Donald Trump appears close to invincible in the Republican primaries and caucuses, but despite his commanding victories, the front-runner’s strength among general election voters remains unclear.

VoteCast shows that Trump, the former president, has galvanized the core of the GOP electorate in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. His voters so far are overwhelmingly white, mostly older than 50 and generally without a college degree. This, however, is very different than the electorate he could face in November, when he’d have to appeal to a far more diverse group and possibly win over supporters of former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley. Her pull has been limited in the GOP primaries – but her candidacy may foreshadow problems for Trump.

VoteCast reveals that a large portion of Trump’s opposition within the Republican primaries is comprised of voters who abandoned him before this year.

It also highlights a Republican party that has made an about-face on central policy issues, favoring some big government programs and retreating from commitments abroad.

VoteCast is a series of surveys conducted among 1,597 Republican caucus voters in Iowa, 1,989 New Hampshire voters who took part in the Republican primary and 2,466 Republican primary voters in South Carolina. The surveys were conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

Haley’s Coalition: Anti-Trump Republicans and 2020 Biden Voters

Haley was Trump’s lone major challenger by South Carolina, but the gauntlet of the early states highlighted the limitations of her campaign pitch.

Some of Haley’s supporters in New Hampshire and South Carolina were voters who told VoteCast they identified as Democrats or independents. More importantly, these voters tended to have backed Biden in 2020. In South Carolina and Iowa, about 4 in 10 Haley voters supported Biden nearly four years ago. Roughly half of her New Hampshire voters voted for Biden.

The challenge for Haley is that this group is a minority within the GOP. They constituted anywhere between 11% and 24% of GOP voters in each of the three contests, putting a low ceiling on her support. Many of Haley’s remaining supporters in each state said they voted third party or didn’t vote in the 2020 general election, also a distinct minority of voters in GOP nominating contests.

The Republican Electorate Remains Overwhelmingly White

So far, almost all of Trump’s backing has come from white voters, who made up the vast majority of the electorate in the first few head-to-head Republican contests — even in diverse South Carolina. Those results give us few clues about whether Trump can cut into the margins that Democrats have traditionally enjoyed with Black and Hispanic voters.

Trump’s performance shows his resilience among voting groups that were strongly behind him in previous elections. Nearly 6 in 10 of the votes he received in 2020 came from white people without a college degree, a margin he exceeded in the first head-to-head primaries and caucuses. More than 6 in 10 of his voters in the early states were also over 50. Trump also maintained high levels of support with evangelical Christians and people living in small towns and rural areas, groups that have significant weight within Republican primaries but comprise a smaller share of the general electorate.

The New Republican Party

It’s official: The age of a small-government, hawkish Republican Party appears to have ended. Instead, Republican primary voters strongly support domestic policies that require significant government investment, like maintaining the current age of 67 for Social Security eligibility and building a border wall between the U.S. and Mexico. And they’re showing less enthusiasm for intervention in conflicts with traditional U.S. rivals like Russia.

In the lead-up to the primaries, Republican candidates clashed over these issues, testing whether long-held GOP positions like shrinking the size of entitlement programs and taking a strong hand in foreign conflicts still resonate with the party’s base. The result of the first head-to-head Republican contests shows how Trump has shaped today’s Republican Party.

Trump’s stances resonate strongly with his base: According to the three surveys, roughly 7 in 10 Trump voters support an end to continued aid to Ukraine, approximately 8 in 10 want to preserve Social Security as-is and about 9 in 10 want a wall along the U.S. southern border.

Trump’s Hardest Tests Are Yet to Come

Trump has enjoyed a favorable audience in the Republican contests, one he won’t be able to count on in November if he wins the nomination.

Roughly 7 in 10 of the voters in the primaries and caucuses identified as conservative. But in 2020, conservatives were less than 40% of the general electorate; the rest were roughly split between liberals and moderates. Just 36% of moderates voted for Trump in 2020 and only 8% of liberals did.

And some potential weak spots for Trump are already showing. At least 2 in 10 of the voters in South Carolina’s Republican primary and the Iowa caucuses said they won’t back Trump in November, while approximately 3 in 10 in New Hampshire felt that way.

In each of the early states, Trump either lost or split voters with a college degree to Haley. Nor were the suburbs – where the plurality of general election voters live – particularly welcoming to him in this year’s GOP contests. He split the suburban vote with his opponents in Iowa and New Hampshire and won the suburbs in South Carolina by a smaller margin than in the state as a whole.

But those are just some of the challenges Trump will confront in the coming months – in the early states, anywhere between one-quarter and nearly 4 in 10 Republican voters say that he broke the law in one or more of the criminal cases against him.

RELATED TOPICS:

DON'T MISS

What Are Fresno Real Estate Experts Predicting for 2025 and Beyond?

DON'T MISS

First California EV Mandates Hit Automakers This Year. Most Are Not Even Close

DON'T MISS

Fresno County Garnet Fire Grows to 18,748 Acres in Sierra National Forest

DON'T MISS

US Judge Blocks Deportations of Unaccompanied Migrant Children to Guatemala

DON'T MISS

Israel Pounds Gaza City Suburbs, Netanyahu to Convene Security Cabinet

DON'T MISS

Thousands in Australia March Against Immigration, Government Condemns Rally

DON'T MISS

Trump Says He Will Order Voter ID Requirement for Every Vote

DON'T MISS

Greta Thunberg Joins Flotilla Heading for Gaza With Aid

DON'T MISS

Chicago Mayor Says Police Will Not Aid Federal Troops or Agents

DON'T MISS

Post-War Gaza Plan Sees Relocation of Population, ‘Digital Token’ for Palestinian Land: Washington Post

DON'T MISS

Labor Day Quiz: Do You Know What a Knocker-Upper Is?

DON'T MISS

Bulldogs Check All the Boxes in Runaway Win Over Georgia Southern

UP NEXT

US Judge Blocks Deportations of Unaccompanied Migrant Children to Guatemala

UP NEXT

Israel Pounds Gaza City Suburbs, Netanyahu to Convene Security Cabinet

UP NEXT

Thousands in Australia March Against Immigration, Government Condemns Rally

UP NEXT

Trump Says He Will Order Voter ID Requirement for Every Vote

UP NEXT

Greta Thunberg Joins Flotilla Heading for Gaza With Aid

UP NEXT

Chicago Mayor Says Police Will Not Aid Federal Troops or Agents

UP NEXT

Post-War Gaza Plan Sees Relocation of Population, ‘Digital Token’ for Palestinian Land: Washington Post

UP NEXT

Labor Day Quiz: Do You Know What a Knocker-Upper Is?

UP NEXT

Bulldogs Check All the Boxes in Runaway Win Over Georgia Southern

UP NEXT

Judge Blocks Pillar of Trump’s Mass Deportation Campaign

Thousands in Australia March Against Immigration, Government Condemns Rally

20 hours ago

Trump Says He Will Order Voter ID Requirement for Every Vote

20 hours ago

Greta Thunberg Joins Flotilla Heading for Gaza With Aid

20 hours ago

Chicago Mayor Says Police Will Not Aid Federal Troops or Agents

20 hours ago

Post-War Gaza Plan Sees Relocation of Population, ‘Digital Token’ for Palestinian Land: Washington Post

20 hours ago

Labor Day Quiz: Do You Know What a Knocker-Upper Is?

20 hours ago

Bulldogs Check All the Boxes in Runaway Win Over Georgia Southern

1 day ago

Judge Blocks Pillar of Trump’s Mass Deportation Campaign

2 days ago

Classic Cars Will Still Need a Smog Test in California After Lawmakers Reject Jay Leno Bill

2 days ago

Visalia Driver Arrested for DUI After Multiple Crashes and Pedestrian Injured

2 days ago

Fresno County Garnet Fire Grows to 18,748 Acres in Sierra National Forest

A lightning-sparked wildfire, the Garnet Fire, in the Sierra National Forest has burned 18,748 acres in Fresno County and remains at 8% cont...

19 hours ago

Photo: USDA - Forest Service Tanker 40 at Fresno Air Attack Base. The Fresno County Garnet Fire in the Sierra National Forest has burned 18,748 acres and is 8% contained as crews make progress on containment lines while bracing for possible thunderstorms early this week. (Sam Wu/USFS)
19 hours ago

Fresno County Garnet Fire Grows to 18,748 Acres in Sierra National Forest

U.S. flag and Judge gavel are seen in this illustration taken, August 6, 2024. (Reuters File)
19 hours ago

US Judge Blocks Deportations of Unaccompanied Migrant Children to Guatemala

Smoke rises from Gaza after an explosion, as seen from the Israeli side of the border, August 31, 2025. (Reuters/Amir Cohen)
19 hours ago

Israel Pounds Gaza City Suburbs, Netanyahu to Convene Security Cabinet

Demonstrators hold a banner during the 'March for Australia' anti-immigration rally, in Sydney, Australia, August 31, 2025. REUTERS/Hollie Adams
20 hours ago

Thousands in Australia March Against Immigration, Government Condemns Rally

President Donald Trump walks on the grounds of the Trump National Golf Club in Sterling, Virginia, U.S., August 30, 2025. (Reuters/Nathan Howard)
20 hours ago

Trump Says He Will Order Voter ID Requirement for Every Vote

Activists Yasemin Acar, Greta Thunberg and Thiago Avila attend a press conference before the departure of the Global Sumud Flotilla, a humanitarian expedition to Gaza, at the port of Barcelona, Spain August 31, 2025. (Reuters/Eva Manez)
20 hours ago

Greta Thunberg Joins Flotilla Heading for Gaza With Aid

National Guard troops wear gas masks during protests against federal immigration sweeps, in Los Angeles, California, U.S., June 12, 2025. (Reuters File)
20 hours ago

Chicago Mayor Says Police Will Not Aid Federal Troops or Agents

A view of tents sheltering Palestinians displaced by the Israeli military offensive, in Gaza City, August 23, 2025. (Reuters File)
20 hours ago

Post-War Gaza Plan Sees Relocation of Population, ‘Digital Token’ for Palestinian Land: Washington Post

Search

Help continue the work that gets you the news that matters most.

Send this to a friend