Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility

Suspect Identified in Ambush Shooting That Killed 2 Idaho Firefighters

9 hours ago

Will Valadao Spoil Trump’s Plan for July 4th ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ Signing?

10 hours ago

Shaver Lake and Reedley 4th of July Shows Are Wednesday. Who Else Is Celebrating?

14 hours ago

Elon Musk Says Senate Bill Would Destroy Jobs and Harm US

14 hours ago

Israel Strikes Pound Gaza, Killing 60, Ahead of US Talks on Ceasefire

15 hours ago

Trump’s Administration Finds Harvard Violated Students’ Civil Rights, WSJ Reports

15 hours ago

How Did the Supreme Court Rule? Here’s a Look at the Big Cases

3 days ago
Walters: Newsom Budget Surplus Gets Reality Check
dan_walters
By Dan Walters, CalMatters Commentary
Published 4 years ago on
May 18, 2021

Share

Gavin Newsom loves superlatives, even when they are unwarranted, and a strong surge in state revenues gave him the opportunity last week to indulge his peculiarity.

Repeatedly, the governor boasted about a $75 billion budget surplus that in combination with wad of federal pandemic aid would finance a “$100 billion California Comeback Plan” of new and expanded services, including cash payments to millions of families as part of a $267 billion budget.

“This is a generational budget,” Newsom said. “This is an historic, transformational budget. This is not a budget that plays small ball. We’re not playing in the margins. We are not trying to fail more efficiently.”

Dan Walters

Opinion

Budget Analyst Says Surplus is Closer to $38 Billion

However, the Legislature’s budget analyst, Gabe Petek, has a sharply different take. He says the true surplus that can be spent or saved over two years is more like $38 billion — still a very substantial sum but lacking the political punch of the numbers Newsom threw out.

Why the difference? It’s one of semantics. To arrive at his big number, Newsom counted money that is already committed by law to be spent or saved, such as constitutionally required aid to schools.

“The governor’s estimate includes constitutionally required spending on schools and community colleges, reserves, and debt payments,” Petek told legislators. “We do not consider these spending amounts part of the surplus because they must be allocated to specified purposes.”

Petek Cautions Newsom on Lavish Spending Plan

Petek also does not agree with Newsom’s plans for lavish new spending, saying it might cripple the state’s ability to balance the budget once the revenue bubble bursts and federal aid dries up.

“Despite a historic surge in revenues, the governor continues to rely on budget tools from last year,” Petek said. “Specifically, he uses $12 billion in reserve withdrawals and borrowing to increase spending. The state will need these tools to respond to future challenges, when federal assistance might not be as significant. We urge the Legislature not to take a step back from its track record of prudent budget management.”

Petek’s cautionary analysis obviously will not sit well with Newsom, whose expansive budget is aimed, in part, at countering a campaign to recall him by applying grease to some of the state’s squeakiest political wheels. But it also may not please his bosses in the Legislature, who not only support Newsom’s spending plans but want to go further.

Reminiscent of Gray Davis Before Recall

The situation is more than slightly reminiscent of what happened 18 years ago when one of Newsom’s predecessors, Gray Davis, also faced a recall.

Davis barely won re-election in 2002, and immediately afterwards told Californians that the state budget faced horrendous deficits that would require steep spending cuts and new taxes. He evidently believed that maximizing the fiscal crisis would make Californians more willing to accept the taxes, but it backfired badly.

Davis was accused of hiding the massive deficit as he sought re-election and Elizabeth Hill, the Legislature’s budget analyst at the time — much as Petek is doing now — revealed that Davis’ deficit number was much overstated.

Davis, as with Newsom’s surplus figure today, arbitrarily included extraneous figures that didn’t rightfully belong. His clumsy effort to manipulate public opinion jump-started the recall campaign, which resulted in his ouster a year later.

Both situations illustrate the invaluable role that Petek’s office plays in calling out governors when they engage in creative bookkeeping to advance their political goals. It has a well-earned and jealously guarded reputation for playing it straight and while its advice is not always followed, it gives the media and the larger public a consistent guide to what’s really happening in the state’s increasingly convoluted finances.

CalMatters is a public interest journalism venture committed to explaining how California’s state Capitol works and why it matters. For more stories by Dan Walters, go to calmatters.org/commentary.
[activecampaign form=19]

DON'T MISS

What Are Fresno Real Estate Experts Predicting for 2025 and Beyond?

DON'T MISS

First California EV Mandates Hit Automakers This Year. Most Are Not Even Close

DON'T MISS

Clovis Police Seek Public’s Help in Finding Missing 82-Year-Old Woman

DON'T MISS

Fresno Woman Killed in Head-On Collision, CHP Investigating

DON'T MISS

Musk Vows to Punish Lawmakers Who Back Trump’s Spending Bill

DON'T MISS

Fresno Man Sentenced to Nearly 6 Years for $4.2 Million Tech Startup Fraud

DON'T MISS

Bryan Kohberger Pleads Guilty in Murders of Four Idaho Students, ABC News Reports

DON'T MISS

Wildfire Near Lake Madera Country Estates Burns 12 Acres, Now 100% Contained

DON'T MISS

Fresno County CHP Arrest Two in Interstate 5 Drug, Gun, and Counterfeit Money Bust

DON'T MISS

California Seizes Over 600,000 Pounds of Illegal Fireworks. Newsom Calls for Safe Celebrations

DON'T MISS

Where Trade Talks Stand With Major US Partners Ahead of Tariffs-Hike Deadline

DON'T MISS

Labor Icon Huerta Breaks Ground on Fresno Park Bearing Her Name

UP NEXT

I Detest Netanyahu, but on Some Things He’s Actually Right

UP NEXT

Much of LA’s Community of Immigrants Is Hiding, Leaving a Hole in the Fabric of the City

UP NEXT

Things Netanyahu Might Say if Injected With Truth Serum

UP NEXT

California Politicians Ignore Ag’s Troubles, but Boost Movie Business

UP NEXT

Trump’s Courageous and Correct Decision to Bomb Iran

UP NEXT

How the Attacks on Iran Are Part of a Much Bigger Global Struggle

UP NEXT

Groceries Are Now a Luxury. So Is Breathing.

UP NEXT

California Politicians Agree on School Money, but Poor Test Scores Need Attention

UP NEXT

Sen. Alex Padilla: This Is How an Administration Acts When It’s Afraid

UP NEXT

Bay Area Transit Systems Want More Money. But Their Payrolls Soared as Ridership Declined

Fresno Man Sentenced to Nearly 6 Years for $4.2 Million Tech Startup Fraud

7 hours ago

Bryan Kohberger Pleads Guilty in Murders of Four Idaho Students, ABC News Reports

7 hours ago

Wildfire Near Lake Madera Country Estates Burns 12 Acres, Now 100% Contained

8 hours ago

Fresno County CHP Arrest Two in Interstate 5 Drug, Gun, and Counterfeit Money Bust

8 hours ago

California Seizes Over 600,000 Pounds of Illegal Fireworks. Newsom Calls for Safe Celebrations

8 hours ago

Where Trade Talks Stand With Major US Partners Ahead of Tariffs-Hike Deadline

8 hours ago

Labor Icon Huerta Breaks Ground on Fresno Park Bearing Her Name

8 hours ago

DOJ Announces Arrest, Indictments in North Korean IT Worker Scheme

8 hours ago

Fresno Man Arrested in Clovis for Sex-Related Crimes Against Minor

9 hours ago

Dyer’s Lobbying Works. Fresno Gets $100M for Downtown From State

9 hours ago

Clovis Police Seek Public’s Help in Finding Missing 82-Year-Old Woman

The Clovis Police Department is asking for the public’s help in locating an at-risk missing adult last seen on Thursday. Pathmani Goonawarde...

6 hours ago

Clovis Police are searching for Pathmani Goonawardena, 82, who went missing nearly three weeks ago and was last seen driving a white Volvo near Copper and Auberry, possibly en route to Coarsegold. (CHP)
6 hours ago

Clovis Police Seek Public’s Help in Finding Missing 82-Year-Old Woman

fresno
6 hours ago

Fresno Woman Killed in Head-On Collision, CHP Investigating

President Donald Trump and Elon Musk attend a press conference in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., May 30, 2025. (Reuters File)
7 hours ago

Musk Vows to Punish Lawmakers Who Back Trump’s Spending Bill

7 hours ago

Fresno Man Sentenced to Nearly 6 Years for $4.2 Million Tech Startup Fraud

Bryan Koberger, who is accused of killing four University of Idaho students, listens during a hearing to overturn his grand jury indictment in Moscow, Idaho, U.S., October 26, 2023. (Reuters File)
7 hours ago

Bryan Kohberger Pleads Guilty in Murders of Four Idaho Students, ABC News Reports

The Blanca Fire, burning 12 acres northwest of Lake Madera Country Estates in Madera County, remains active with 0% containment and no reported injuries or structural damage as the cause is under investigation as of Monday, June 30, 2025. (CalFire)
8 hours ago

Wildfire Near Lake Madera Country Estates Burns 12 Acres, Now 100% Contained

Fresno County CHP arrested two on Interstate 5 after finding about one kilogram of suspected cocaine, a loaded ghost gun, and counterfeit money during a vehicle search on Sunday, June 29, 2025. (CHP)
8 hours ago

Fresno County CHP Arrest Two in Interstate 5 Drug, Gun, and Counterfeit Money Bust

Gov. Newsom warns Californians to celebrate the Fourth of July safely, emphasizing zero tolerance for illegal fireworks which have surged to over 600,000 pounds seized this year. (Shutterstock)
8 hours ago

California Seizes Over 600,000 Pounds of Illegal Fireworks. Newsom Calls for Safe Celebrations

Help continue the work that gets you the news that matters most.

Search

Send this to a friend