On Sept. 14, after showing Marco Rubio, America’s secretary of state, the massive, 2,000-year-old blocks of the Western Wall at Jerusalem’s holiest site, Binyamin Netanyahu declared the alliance between their countries to be “as strong and as durable as the stones…we just touched.” Unfortunately, he is wrong.

As Israel becomes isolated over its war in Gaza, it depends increasingly on America. During the current UN General Assembly old friends, including Australia, Britain, Canada and France, will recognize a Palestinian state, even as Israel’s expansion of settlements in the West Bank makes real statehood less likely. America is all that stands between Israel and a pariah status that would have dire implications for its diplomatic, legal and military security.

For all Mr. Netanyahu’s blithe assurances that relations with America are perfectly solid, they are not. The prime minister has riled the Trump administration and is ignoring cracks deep within the foundations of the alliance. Democratic voters have long been drifting away from America’s most indulged ally. Republican voters are increasingly losing faith, too. A sudden loss of popular American support would be a catastrophe for Israel—a small country of 10m people in a dangerous and hostile neighborhood.

The polling in America is startling. The share of Americans who back Israel over the Palestinians is at a 25-year low. In 2022, 42% of American adults held an unfavorable view of Israel; now 53% do. A recent YouGov/Economist poll finds that 43% of Americans believe Israel is committing genocide in Gaza. In the past three years unfavourable views of Israel among Democrats over 50 rose by 23 percentage points. Among Republicans under 50, support is evenly divided, compared with 63% for Israel in 2022. Between 2018 and 2021 the share of evangelicals under the age of 30 who backed Israelis over Palestinians plunged from 69% to 34%. Pollsters think that shift has endured.

To understand why this matters, go back to the years when America’s bond with Israel was a powerful amalgam of values and interests. Both are democracies founded by pioneers seeking refuge from persecution. Both believed that their country was exceptional: one a shining city on a hill, the other a light unto the nations. At the same time, their interests overlapped. During the cold war, Israel was a bulwark against Soviet expansion in the Arab world. After the Soviet collapse, they were still allied against Iran. After the attacks of September 11th 2001, they were united by a loathing of Islamist terrorism.

What Has Gone Wrong?

For Democrats, the falling-out is over values — especially among the young. Democrats tend to project their dismay at America’s history of slavery and neo-colonialism onto oppressed Palestinians and Israeli settlers, even though the comparison is strained. This has been exacerbated by a rightward shift in Israeli politics. Furthermore, Mr. Netanyahu has put Israel firmly in the Republican camp, partly in the hope that Republicans will attack any Democratic administration that presses him over settlements or peace talks.

The falloff in support among Republican voters is not so much about clashing beliefs as divergent interests. Anger about using taxpayers’ money to support Ukraine spills over to the $300 billion  or so America has given Israel since independence in 1948. Israel’s strikes on Qatar and Syria have undermined Mr. Trump’s attempts to create a regional peace. Led by a president who knows where the money is, some in the donor class are gravitating towards the Gulf monarchies.

The war in Gaza has made all this worse. When Americans see photographs of starving children, they rightly shudder. Some Republican commentators, such as Tucker Carlson, resent the idea that Israel might drag America into another Middle Eastern war by attacking Iran. Whenever Israel is criticized, its defenders hurl accusations of antisemitism — not always fairly. With overuse, a heinous charge is losing its sting. That is bad for Jews everywhere, including in Israel.

Optimists will call this scaremongering. Israeli and American governments have fallen out in the past. Their soldiers are closer than ever, fighting together in June for the first time, against Iran. When the Gaza war is done and a new Israeli prime minister takes office, Israel’s interest in being close to America will once again assert itself. Israel’s ascendancy in the Middle East will mean that America cannot afford to ignore it, they say.

That is complacent. Long-run shifts in public opinion are more dangerous than rows between governments. Although they are slow to gather momentum, they are hard to reverse. When voters change their minds, political taboos can suddenly crumble. Even today, some Israeli analysts fear that Joe Biden will be the last instinctively Zionist American president.

Military support is underpinned by a decade-long agreement. The current one, which supplies Israel with $3.8 billion a year, runs out in 2028 and should be being renegotiated. But Israel is worried that Mr. Trump will refuse to hand over money and is looking to repackage the agreement as a “partnership”. The cash matters less than sharing technology and guaranteeing access to advanced weapons — particularly in war.

A New Vision

It is wrong to assume that a successor to Mr. Netanyahu can put things right. Israel is a democracy too; and it is a divided one in which many voters embrace the nationalist-religious right. Gaza will be a running sore, even when the fighting stops. Powerful factions are bent on expanding settlements and annexing Gaza and parts of the West Bank.

This week Mr. Netanyahu talked of Israel as a “super-Sparta”, ready to stand alone. As Israel fights on in Gaza and attacks Arab capitals at will, it is betting that military domination over the Middle East will make it more secure. That muscle-bound, autarkic vision is a tragic misconception. It could eventually drive away its irreplaceable protector. For Israel, no strategic blunder could be more dangerous.

By  The Economist/Amit Elkayam

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