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Gov. Gavin Newsom’s plan to redraw California’s congressional map has kicked off a game of musical chairs as candidates evaluate which districts they’ll run in and see new possibilities to jump into districts that were previously not competitive.

Some have already announced plans to switch districts if voters approve the new maps in November.

“Chaos breeds opportunity in politics, and that’s what we’re experiencing right now,” said Katie Merrill, a veteran Democratic political strategist and campaign consultant. “It’s basically opening more doors than it’s closing.”

Voters in November will be asked to approve Newsom’s proposal to toss out the congressional maps drawn four years ago by California’s independent citizens redistricting commission and temporarily adopt partisan maps that gerrymander districts to favor Democrats. Newsom’s pitch came in response to President Donald Trump’s demand that Republican states redraw their maps to solidify House Republicans’ precarious majority in 2026. If the GOP loses the House, Trump would face considerable roadblocks to his agenda and also subject his administration to Democratic scrutiny — and potentially impeachment.

Marni von Wilpert, a Democratic San Diego city councilmember who flipped the city’s most conservative district blue in 2020, is diving headfirst through one of those newly opened doors. The 42-year-old former congressional staffer for the House labor committee recently announced she would challenge Republican Rep. Darrell Issa, an 11-term incumbent, in the new proposed 48th District.

“When the lines were redrawn, it did open up a valuable opportunity,” von Wilpert told CalMatters. She said that a younger LGBTQ Democrat like her stood a much stronger chance of toppling Issa under the proposed maps, which add more registered Democrats to the voter pool.

Several Democratic congressional hopefuls and at least one Republican have signaled that they too would switch districts should voters adopt the new maps. Democrats Brandon Riker, Anuj Dixit and Abel Chavez, who all filed to run against longtime incumbent Republican Rep. Ken Calvert, have announced they’ll switch to run against Issa if voters approve the maps in November.

Dixit, a voting rights attorney, declared on social media that he would fight to pass Newsom’s redistricting plan and challenge Issa.

Riker, an entrepreneur who previously ran for lieutenant governor of Vermont in 2016, chose less overtly pro-Prop. 50 language and instead committed to running in whichever district contained his home base of Palm Springs.

“Both Calvert and Issa are voting against California families and dodging their constituents,” Riker said in a statement. “No matter where the boundaries fall, I got in this race to represent my community in Palm Springs,” he added. “If we don’t put a stop to Trump’s madness, Californians will suffer.”

Riker said he would continue campaigning actively in both districts until voters settled the maps in November. Chavez, a former teacher and now president of his local school board in Nuevo, similarly defended his decision to switch districts as a choice to represent his home community and refrained from any pro-Prop. 50 language in his social media announcement.

Even Republican Kevin Lincoln is eyeing a district swap should voters approve the new maps.

Lincoln, the former mayor of Stockton, has already launched a rematch campaign against Democratic incumbent Rep. Josh Harder, to whom he lost in 2024. But if voters embrace the new maps, Lincoln has indicated he might instead challenge the more vulnerable Democratic Rep. Adam Gray, whose district under the new maps is gerrymandered to capture part of Stockton’s downtown core.

Prop. 50 Delay Is a Boon to Democrats

Rather than wait for a final verdict on Prop. 50, candidates are forging ahead with voter engagement and fundraising as best they can, even without a guarantee that the new maps will prevail. That’s the correct strategy for Democrats, said Merrill, the Democratic strategist, given that there will be plenty of time for fundraising and endorsement gathering after Nov. 4.

“Everybody should jump out there and start the race,” Merrill said. “They have to sort of stake their ground so they freeze other candidates from jumping in. They send signals to the endorsing groups and donors about what they’re intending to do.”

The fight for Prop. 50 which is expected to cost hundreds of millions of dollars that might otherwise flow toward individual candidates — could actually benefit Democrats even though it delays their ability to fundraise and gather endorsements.

Merrill noted that House Majority PAC, a super PAC aligned with House Democratic leadership, has already contributed $5 million to the Yes on Prop. 50 campaign. But, Merrill noted, if the group can get five new Democratic seats out of California, that investment pales in comparison to what would otherwise have been multimillion-dollar fights in each of the state’s previously competitive districts.

“For them, it’s the most efficient use of money you can think of,” Merrill said of the super PAC

But for Republican challengers, who will face an even steeper battle if voters approve the redrawn maps, the expensive Prop. 50 fight risks siphoning crucial funds that would otherwise go to candidates.

“We need money today, not tomorrow, because money begets money, and momentum begets momentum,” said Sam Oh, a Republican campaign consultant who works with Lincoln’s campaign as well as with incumbent Republican Rep. Young Kim.

In 2020 and 2022, Oh helped Kim and former Republican Rep. Michelle Steel oust incumbent Democrats in two Orange County swing seats. The new proposed maps shift far more Democrats into those districts to shore up support for vulnerable incumbent Reps. Dave Min and Derek Tran, who defeated Steel in 2024 to flip the seat blue.

If they want competitive races next November, Oh said, Republican donors should give to candidates directly in addition to supporting the anti-Prop. 50 campaign.

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This article was originally published on CalMatters and was republished under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives license.