As voters cast ballots in person across the country Tuesday, the final polls and race ratings offered one last snapshot of the fight for control of Congress before actual election results begin replacing forecasts.

Republicans entered Election Day defending the 220-215 House majority established by the 2024 election, meaning Democrats need a net gain of three seats to take control. The current House has 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats, one independent, and two vacancies.

Inside Elections’ final House projection called for Democrats to gain 20 to 30 seats.

The Senate battle is closer.

Republicans hold a 53-47 advantage, meaning Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control. Inside Elections’ final outlook projected Democratic gains of four to six seats.

Those projections are not election results. They are assessments of where the races stood before Election Day based on polling, fundraising, campaign conditions and other political factors.

Four Senate Races Enter Election Day as Toss-Ups

Inside Elections’ Senate ratings identified four races as toss-ups heading into Election Day: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Maine.

Other potentially consequential races sat just outside that category.

Inside Elections rated Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Texas as “Tilt Democratic.” North Carolina was rated “Lean Democratic,” while Georgia was “Likely Democratic.”

Nebraska and South Carolina were rated “Tilt Republican.”

The latest Senate polling collected by Inside Elections also showed several competitive contests.

In Maine, a Marist University poll conducted Oct. 22-25 showed Democrat Troy Jackson at 49% and Republican Sen. Susan Collins at 47%. An Echelon Insights poll conducted Oct. 16-23 showed Jackson ahead 51%-44%.

In Michigan, an InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Oct. 21-22 showed Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 47% and Republican Mike Rogers at 46%. A GBAO poll listed by Inside Elections showed El-Sayed at 48% and Rogers at 44%.

Texas also remained closely watched. A Texas Southern University poll conducted Oct. 21-25 showed Democrat James Talarico at 49% and Republican Ken Paxton at 47%. A YouGov poll conducted Oct. 13-21 showed Talarico at 50% and Paxton at 45%. Inside Elections entered Tuesday rating the race “Tilt Democratic.”

In Ohio, an Echelon Insights poll conducted Oct. 16-23 showed Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican Jon Husted tied at 47%. Inside Elections rated the race “Tilt Democratic.”

House Battlefield Stretches Across the Country

The battlefield for the House is much larger.

Inside Elections’ House ratings final projection called for Democrats to gain 20 to 30 seats.

Thirteen House races were rated toss-ups, including California’s 22nd District, Colorado’s 5th, Florida’s 22nd, Iowa’s 2nd, Kentucky’s 6th, Michigan’s 4th and 7th, Montana’s 1st, New York’s 17th, Pennsylvania’s 1st, Texas’ 34th and 35th, and Washington’s 3rd.

The final ratings also showed movement toward Democrats in a number of Republican-held or competitive districts.

Arizona’s 6th, Colorado’s 8th, Florida’s 14th and 25th, North Carolina’s 1st and 11th, Ohio’s 7th and 9th, Pennsylvania’s 10th, Texas’ 15th, Virginia’s 2nd, and Wisconsin’s 3rd all moved from toss-up to “Tilt Democratic” in Inside Elections’ final changes.

Meanwhile, Colorado’s 5th, Florida’s 22nd, Kentucky’s 6th, Michigan’s 4th, and Montana’s 1st moved from “Tilt Republican” into the toss-up category.

Now the Polls Give Way to Votes

Polls and race ratings provide a picture of where campaigns stood heading into Election Day, but they do not determine who will win.

Polling margins of error, turnout, and differences between the electorate modeled by pollsters and the voters who ultimately cast ballots can produce results that differ from pre-election surveys.

As votes are counted Tuesday, those forecasts will quickly give way to actual results, with a small group of closely contested House and Senate races likely to determine control of Congress.