El Niño could produce record-breaking rain and snow this winter, according to the latest analysis from the Climate Prediction Center.

In its recent update, the arm of the National Weather Service said that “El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27.”

What does “very strong” mean?

“During the October-December 2026 season, there is a 69% chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950,” the CPC stated.

The asterisk in the forecast, if you want to call it that, is CPC’s statement that “with an event of this magnitude, the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño are larger, but they are not guaranteed.”

UC climate scientist Daniel Swain also said that California could experience a historic El Niño.

Record-Shattering Potential

“Based on the numbers I’m seeing — the numbers that other climate and weather folks are seeing — are frankly pretty extraordinary,” Swain said on his YouTube channel. “If they come to pass, they’ll blow all historical (records) out of the water.”

In case you missed it, my latest livestream update on the very strong developing #El Niño event was recorded & is now available. In it, I focus on current observations, just-released new forecasts for fall and winter, and California to global implications. https://t.co/GWm0DRDKMA

— Daniel Swain (@Weather_West) August 10, 2026

Some meteorologists, including Swain, say that California could see light to average rain in the fall before El Niño produces what is expected to be heavy amounts of rain and snow during winter. In addition, there is speculation that the snow line could rise to higher elevations in the Sierra and Coast Ranges because of warmer Pacific Ocean temperatures.