A passenger holds a mobile phone while looking at a commercial airplane at San Francisco International Airport in San Francisco, California, U.S., November 6, 2025. (Reuters/Carlos Barria)
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The war in Iran has forced airlines to raise prices and cut flights. But soon, some of them, particularly in Europe, could struggle to find enough jet fuel to put planes in the sky.
Ryanair, the low-cost airline that dominates flying within Europe, said this week that its suppliers could guarantee it enough jet fuel only through most of May. The airline said fuel could be in short supply if ships laden with energy did not soon begin passing through the Strait of Hormuz on Iran’s southern coast.
“If the Iran war finishes soon, then supply will not be disrupted,” the airline said in a statement. “If the closure of the Hormuz Straits continues into May or June, then we cannot rule out risks to fuel supplies at some airports in Europe.”
Iran has effectively blocked most shipments of crude oil, jet fuel and other goods through the strait since the start of the war. After peace talks failed over the weekend, the United States imposed its own blockade to cut off Iranian exports through the strait. Iran responded Wednesday by threatening to disrupt trade across the region.
Europe is by far the biggest consumer of jet fuel shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. Shipments through the strait account for about 41% of all European jet fuel imports and about 36% of all African jet fuel imports, according to Macquarie Group, an Australian financial services firm.
As of Tuesday, global prices of jet fuel were about 80% higher than before the war, according to the Platts Jet Fuel Price Index, which is published by S&P Global Energy Platts. Airlines around the world have responded by raising ticket prices and cutting flights that are not very profitable.
Higher prices could prompt refiners to find ways to produce more jet fuel by making less of other fuels like diesel. But such changes would inflict more pain on other industries, like trucking, that are also hurting from high fuel prices.
Summer is the busiest and most profitable season for airlines. As a result, demand for jet fuel will surely rise in the weeks ahead.
If Europe can’t replace more than half the jet fuel supply it normally gets from the Middle East, shortages could materialize as soon as June, the International Energy Agency said.
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This article originally appeared in The New York Times.
By Niraj Chokshi
c. 2026 The New York Times Company
