While the world waits to see if an uneasy peace through the Strait of Hormuz holds, the impacts of diesel and fertilizer prices have already hit Fresno County ag.

Normalizing fuel prices following the three-way ceasefire between Iran, Israel, and the U.S. is yet to materialize. On Thursday, oil rose nearly 5% as doubts remain about the ability of that peace to last, Reuters reports.

For farmers with tractors going through fields every day, it adds to the stressors Central Valley growers already face, said Jasbir Sidhu, a Kerman almond farmer and co-founder of Punjabi American Growers Group.

Beyond fuel prices, costs for fertilizer — a natural gas byproduct — has surged globally, too.

“It’s not just the diesel, it’s the fertilizers, it’s every commodity that requires freight,” Sidhu said.

Iran Second Largest Producer of Urea: Rosenbusch

Sidhu said he’s seen diesel prices rise 30% since the start of the conflict at the end of February.

This comes as the almond bloom ends and the nut begins to fill out the hull. For farmers sending tractors through the rows to spray herbicides and foliars, that means paying that much more.

For all crops using fertilizers, farmers have seen spikes in prices.

Corey Rosenbusch, president and CEO of the Fertilizer Institute, said the last few months have created global chaos for fertilizer sellers and buyers.

About 40% of urea exports and 50% of sulfur exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The natural gas that goes through the strait not only helps provide energy to create fertilizer but also are essential ingredients for ammonia, urea, and phosphates.

He says there are at least 24 vessels that cannot get through the narrow pass.

“It’s hitting the U.S. farmer hard. As an example, even Iran itself is the second largest exporter of urea,” Rosenbusch said. “And so a grower in the United States might say ‘we don’t use any Iranian urea,’ but when you’re that significant and you’re moving 10% of total global supply, it’s basic economics.”

US Will Need 2 Million Tons of Urea This Spring

Across the country, Rosenbusch estimates the country had about 20% of its spring fertilizer needs already in warehouses ready to sell. U.S. natural gas production can cover much of the country’s  domestic ammonia needs, but about 20% will have to come from global sources, he said.

Rosenbusch says the country will use about 1 million tons of urea in April.

And it’s not just U.S. growers scrambling. India had tendered about 1.5 million tons, about a third of which was supposed to come through the strait.

“Now they’re scrambling to find products for spring planting,” Rosenbusch said.

In total, he forecasts a need of 2 million tons of urea for spring. Farmers in the Midwest growing staple crops may opt for less nitrogen dependent crops such as soybeans. Others may forego a crop altogether and hope crop insurance can cover the losses, he said.

Iranian Conflict Has Hurt That Country’s Nut Exports

The Iranian conflict has benefitted pistachio prices. That’s because as the second largest producer of the nut behind the U.S., Iran has shut down its exports during the war.

Adam Orandi, CEO of ARO Pistachios in Terra Bella, said a 50-cent-per-pound-price increase to growers has strengthened the value of the nut, helping growers who face similar input pressures. Wholesalers experienced about a 75-cent bump.

Global markets are hungry for the nut, driven not only by the conflict but also in alternative pistachios uses such as Dubai chocolate.

“Farming in general has really taken a blow and is suffering but pistachios, I believe, we’re doing a little bit better than most,” Orandi said.