Are Gavin Newsom and Alex Padilla going to swap jobs next year?

It’s a live political possibility. It’s also the big, undiscussed storyline behind all the media leaks that Padilla, California’s senior U.S. senator, is considering a run for governor next year.

If Padilla were to join the gubernatorial race, he’d become a favorite in a weak field of seven Democrats (currently led by former Congresswoman Katie Porter, of Orange County) and two Republicans (a scandal-plagued county sheriff and a former Fox News host from England).

If Padilla were to win the governorship, he’d succeed the term-limited Newsom at the end of 2026.

This is when the swap would come in. As the new governor, Padilla would get to fill the open Senate seat—to appoint his own successor, who could serve for two years, until the 2028 election.

Padilla Owes Newsom

What if Newsom wanted the Senate opening? If he did, Padilla would be all but certain to appoint him to it. The two men are allies and share some political advisers. Most of all, Padilla owes Gov.  Newsom, who appointed Padilla to the Senate in 2021, when Kamala Harris’ election to the vice presidency vacated the seat.

Here’s guessing that Newsom will find some value in a two-year Senate term, in 2027 and 2028.

The seat would give Newsom an official post from which to continue his relentless fight against Donald Trump and the MAGA Republicans. And it would provide the former governor both Washington experience and an East Coast home base in his likely run for the Democratic presidential primary nomination in 2028.

Should he fail to get the nod from the party — or if it becomes apparent that an authoritarian Trump administration won’t allow 2028 to be a free and fair election—Newsom could run for election to the Senate seat in 2028.

Would the Swap Benefit California?

So, now that I’ve outlined the political path to Gov. Padilla and Sen. Newsom, I’ll ask: Would this be good for California?

That’s a harder question. Padilla, an MIT graduate, might be the smartest person in California politics. And Newsom is perhaps the country’s most energetic politician, a ceaseless producer of both creative ideas and dumb blunders.

But political swaps like this are hardball insider moves that inspire cynicism and can backfire with the public. Especially if it begins to seem as if elites, not Californians, are picking our rulers, as the veteran Los Angeles political strategist Dan Schnur warned in a recent piece about redistriting, “When Voters Don’t Matter.”

The perception that the voters no longer matter is growing, with Newsom, Padilla, and other Democrats pushing a partisan gerrymander on this November’s special election ballot (Prop 50, which would add five Democratic seats in the House of Representatives). A Padilla-Newsom switch on top of that proposition might be tempting fate.

Swaps That Backfired

There is precedent for a high-profile California political swap going unexpectedly south.

In 1958, Republicans were nearly as dominant in California government as the Democrats are now. Since 1896, only one Democrat had been elected governor (the atheist Culbert Olson, in an electoral accident).

Gov. Goodwin Knight, a popular Republican moderate from Los Angeles, was preparing to run for re-election in 1958.  But California’s senior senator, the conservative Republican William Knowland, owner of the Oakland Tribune, announced that he would challenge Knight for governor.

Knowland saw the governorship as a better perch from which to run for president in 1960, according to the author Miriam Pawel. Knowland also wanted to block his rival California Republican, Richard Nixon, from the presidency.

Under pressure from Knowland allies, Gov. Knight dropped out of the governor’s race to make way for Sen. Knowland. Knight then joined the race to fill Knowland’s Senate seat.

This swap of campaigns was dubbed “The Big Switch.” And it backfired spectacularly. The Democrats, led by their gubernatorial candidate, Pat Brown, argued that Republicans were playing political games and taking voters for granted.

The election saw record turnout. Both Knowland and Knight lost, in twin upsets that ended their political careers. The era of Republican dominance of state government was over.

Win It All or Lose It All?

Today’s overconfident California Democrats may dismiss this history. But Newsom and Padilla may be playing political musical chairs at a time of historic volatility in our state and country. The Republicans’ robust embrace of authoritarianism has put the very republic at risk. And the Democratic party is losing ground, as Latinos, men, and the young see it as weak and ineffectual.

California’s political ground is shaking and shifting beneath our feet. Big plans and big swaps could bear fruit—or backfire, as coalitions rise and fall.

Padilla and Newsom might switch their way into extending Democratic dominance in California, as they continue the righteous fight against Trumpism.

Or, with too much political maneuvering, they could lose it all.

About the Author

Joe Mathews writes the Connecting California column for Zócalo Public Square.