Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility
Demography Drives Destiny and Right Now California Is Losing
dan_walters
By Dan Walters, CalMatters Commentary
Published 6 months ago on
November 20, 2024

California's stagnant population threatens its political influence as demographic shifts point to the potential loss of five congressional seats after the 2030 census. (AP File)

Share

Getting your Trinity Audio player ready...

Kamala Harris could count on winning California’s 54 electoral college votes as she campaigned for president, and the state’s voters delivered. In fact, California’s electoral votes were almost a quarter of the 226 she won nationwide, 44 short of what she needed to defeat Donald Trump.

Dan Walters Profile Picture
Dan Walters

CalMatters

Opinion

Simultaneously, however, Harris’s party fell short of regaining control of the House of Representatives, thanks in part to failing to flip as many seats in California as party leaders, such as Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi, had hoped.

Those outcomes illustrate the powerful role that the nation’s most populous state plays in determining who controls the federal government.

Looking ahead, however, California’s clout in both presidential and congressional elections — and therefore in the rooms where post-election policy decisions are made — is shrinking. It’s a stark reminder of the old adage that demography drives destiny.

California experienced strong population growth for the first 150 years of the state’s existence, largely due to migration from other states and nations and a high birthrate. The state’s decades-long expansion reached a high point in the 1980s when its population exploded by more than 25%, from 23.8 million to 30 million, due to strong foreign immigration and a new baby boom.

There was a newborn every minute.

The decade’s population growth granted it seven new congressional seats after the 1990 census, increasing from 45 to 52. In 1992, Bill Clinton claimed the state’s 54 electoral votes, becoming only the fourth Democrat to win the state in the 20th century.

Democratic nominees have continued to win California’s electoral votes in every presidential election since, but they could no longer count on a new harvest every decade.

Population Decline Threatens Political Influence

Population growth began to slow in the late 1990s, thanks largely to out-migration of Southern California aerospace workers and their families as defense spending dried up after the breakup of the Soviet Union.

It gained one seat after the 2000 census, but population growth stagnated during the 2010 decade, with a net increase of 2.4 million, just 10% of what occurred in the 1980s.

The state lost a congressional seat after the 2020 census, so California now has 52 districts. The COVID-19 pandemic and other factors, such as a declining birthrate and increasing death rate, have led to population stagnation since then.

“California lost 433,000 people between July 2020 and July 2023,” the Public Policy Institute of California calculated. “Most of the loss occurred during the first year of the pandemic and was driven by a sharp rise in residents moving to other states. But fewer births, higher deaths and lower international migration also played a role.”

That’s where we are now: roughly 39 million, a bit under the 2020 census number. But the future looks like slow growth at best, which means the state will likely lose four or more congressional seats, and therefore electoral votes, after the 2030 census.

A 2023 analysis by the liberal Brennan Center estimated that California will lose four seats, while the conservative American Redistricting Project pegged the likely loss at five seats.

It’s a major chunk of a wider shift of population, congressional seats and electoral votes from blue states — New York will also be a big loser — to red states such as Texas and Florida, whose economies are growing smartly and where housing is affordable.

By either 2030 projection, were the 2032 Democratic nominee for president to carry the same states that Harris did this year, he or she would win 12 fewer electoral votes.

Demography is destiny.

About the Author

Dan Walters has been a journalist for nearly 60 years, spending all but a few of those years working for California newspapers. He began his professional career in 1960, at age 16, at the Humboldt Times. CalMatters is a public interest journalism venture committed to explaining how California’s state Capitol works and why it matters. For more columns by Dan Walters, go to calmatters.org/commentary.

Make Your Voice Heard

GV Wire encourages vigorous debate from people and organizations on local, state, and national issues. Submit your op-ed to bmcewen@gvwire.com for consideration.

RELATED TOPICS:

DON'T MISS

What Are Fresno Real Estate Experts Predicting for 2025 and Beyond?

DON'T MISS

First California EV Mandates Hit Automakers This Year. Most Are Not Even Close

DON'T MISS

FDA Approves Moderna’s New Lower-Dose COVID-19 Vaccine

DON'T MISS

Cabrera, Three Relievers Combine to Lead Marlins to Win Over Giants

DON'T MISS

Spike in Steel Tariffs Could Imperil Trump Promise of Lower Grocery Prices

DON'T MISS

Dodgers’ Mookie Betts Out With Broken Toe After Late-Night Bedroom Mishap

DON'T MISS

California Gubernatorial Candidate Steve Hilton Vows to Repeal Transgender Athlete Law

DON'T MISS

Trans Athlete Competes in California Championships in Clovis Despite National Controversy

DON'T MISS

Tim Walz Urges Democrats to Fight Back Harder Against ‘Bully’ Trump

DON'T MISS

US Defense Secretary Warns Indo-Pacific Allies of ‘Imminent’ Threat From China

DON'T MISS

Hamas Responds to the US Ceasefire Proposal for Gaza While Seeking Amendments

DON'T MISS

No. 15 Overall Seed UCLA Eases Past Fresno State Behind a Season-High 22 Hits

UP NEXT

Medicaid Work Rules Could Leave a Million Californians With No Health Insurance

UP NEXT

Newsom Tussles With Local Officials Over Homelessness

UP NEXT

How Trump’s Vow to Revoke Chinese Student Visas Could Hurt California

UP NEXT

A Program Paying CA Jurors $100 a Day Would End Due to Newsom’s Budget Cuts

UP NEXT

‘I’m Really Scared’: Elderly and Disabled Californians Could Lose Medi-Cal Over $2,000 Limit

UP NEXT

California’s War Over Charter Schools Rages On in Court

UP NEXT

Why Did the California Senate Shunt a Cost-Cutting Housing Bill?

UP NEXT

Fresno’s Crime Beat Didn’t Prepare Me for What I Saw on a Ride Along

UP NEXT

The MAGA Revolution Threatens America’s Most Innovative Place

UP NEXT

California’s High Living Costs and Rampant Poverty Sharpen Its Economic Divide

Ancient DNA Reveals a New Group of People Who Lived Near Land Bridge Between the Americas

14 hours ago

FDA Approves Moderna’s New Lower-Dose COVID-19 Vaccine

1 day ago

Cabrera, Three Relievers Combine to Lead Marlins to Win Over Giants

1 day ago

Spike in Steel Tariffs Could Imperil Trump Promise of Lower Grocery Prices

1 day ago

Dodgers’ Mookie Betts Out With Broken Toe After Late-Night Bedroom Mishap

1 day ago

California Gubernatorial Candidate Steve Hilton Vows to Repeal Transgender Athlete Law

1 day ago

Trans Athlete Competes in California Championships in Clovis Despite National Controversy

1 day ago

Tim Walz Urges Democrats to Fight Back Harder Against ‘Bully’ Trump

2 days ago

US Defense Secretary Warns Indo-Pacific Allies of ‘Imminent’ Threat From China

2 days ago

Hamas Responds to the US Ceasefire Proposal for Gaza While Seeking Amendments

2 days ago

Townsizing? Land Snorkeling? A User’s Guide to the Latest Travel Lingo

For your next trip, have you considered townsizing? What about choosing a detour destination? And instead of forest-bathing, maybe it’...

14 hours ago

14 hours ago

Townsizing? Land Snorkeling? A User’s Guide to the Latest Travel Lingo

14 hours ago

Trump Trade War Has Already Had Huge Effect on California Ports

14 hours ago

Cambodian American Chefs Are Finding Success and Raising Their Culture’s Profile. On Their Terms

14 hours ago

Ancient DNA Reveals a New Group of People Who Lived Near Land Bridge Between the Americas

1 day ago

FDA Approves Moderna’s New Lower-Dose COVID-19 Vaccine

1 day ago

Cabrera, Three Relievers Combine to Lead Marlins to Win Over Giants

1 day ago

Spike in Steel Tariffs Could Imperil Trump Promise of Lower Grocery Prices

1 day ago

Dodgers’ Mookie Betts Out With Broken Toe After Late-Night Bedroom Mishap

Help continue the work that gets you the news that matters most.

Search

Send this to a friend