WASHINGTON — U.S. intelligence agencies have assessed that Russia could provide targeting information to Houthi rebels in Yemen, whose attacks in the Red Sea have disrupted global shipping, but do not believe Moscow has taken such a step, according to U.S. officials.

Russia has provided small arms and limited assistance to the Houthis. And for weeks, U.S. officials have said Russia is considering providing the group with missiles should the West escalate the war in Ukraine.

Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout has been negotiating with the Houthis to sell them advanced missiles, though a deal has not yet been completed, officials say. The United States swapped Bout in the prisoner exchange that freed WNBA star Brittney Griner from a Russian prison in December 2022.

In September, U.S. intelligence agencies assessed that if the U.S. and European countries allowed Ukraine to use their weapons for strikes deeper into Russia, President Vladimir Putin would respond by authorizing covert, lethal attacks.

While such retaliation could include stepped-up Russian sabotage operations in Europe, officials said Russia also sees the Houthis as an effective and disruptive force that had successfully pressured international shipping.

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Houthi Attacks Drive up Shipping Costs

Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have driven up shipping costs and forced the United States and its allies to increase their naval presence in the region. Fighting the Houthis has led to some of the most intense combat deployments for the U.S. Navy in years.

The United States has conducted numerous retaliatory strikes against the Houthis, but the operations do not appear to have significantly dented the Houthis’ ability to strike ships or launch attacks against Israel. Indeed, two Navy SEALs were lost at sea and died in an operation to interdict Iranian weapons shipments to the Houthis.

The Houthis have emerged this year as one of Iran’s most potent proxy forces. Iran has supplied many of their weapons, but U.S. officials say Iran does not have as much control of the group as it has over its other proxies, such as Shiite militias in Iraq.

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Russia’s cooperation with the Houthis could make them even more potent. Iran is unlikely to object, as it has increasingly assisted Russia in the war in Ukraine. Iranian drone makers have been a crucial supplier to the Russian military.

Houthi drone and missile attacks against U.S. naval ships have fallen wide of the mark, but Russian arms and targeting information could increase their accuracy.

Russian missile production initially slowed when U.S. and European sanctions went into effect immediately after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. But in the ensuing months, Russia was able to restart and expand production, replacing parts it had previously bought from Europe and the U.S. with dual-use Chinese supplies.

On Thursday, The Wall Street Journal reported that Russia had provided the Houthis with targeting information this year, citing European defense officials.

But U.S. officials said they had collected no intelligence that Putin had yet provided such intelligence to the Houthis. The officials said such a transfer remains a possibility, and U.S. intelligence agencies believe Putin is considering it.

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But, officials said, Putin is carefully calibrating how he escalates his covert war against the West. He does not want the United States and Europe to help Ukraine expand the war deeper into Russian territory, nor does he want to trigger a bigger, direct war with NATO.

To avoid an escalation he cannot control, U.S. officials said, Putin is trying to increase pressure on the West through groups like the Houthis and covert attacks planned by his intelligence agencies.

U.S. officials hope to deter Russia from assisting the Houthis by highlighting the possibility that it might do so. Exposing Russia’s covert assistance could make it more difficult for Moscow to escalate its covert operations against the West.

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This article originally appeared in The New York Times.

By Julian E. Barnes/Kenny Holston
c. 2024 The New York Times Company