The concept of an “October Surprise” — a major, late-breaking event that could alter the course of a presidential election — has been a fixture in American politics for decades. As the 2024 election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris approaches, political observers are speculating about what unexpected developments might emerge.

The 2024 campaign has already seen its share of surprises, including Biden’s withdrawal and endorsement of Harris, and two assassination attempts on Trump. According to Michael DuHaime, a Republican strategist, any potential October Surprise is likely to be issue-based rather than personal, given both candidates’ long public careers.

“The real surprise will be not about them, but an issue perhaps they have yet to prepare for,” DuHaime told Newsweek.

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Past October Surprises have included the “Access Hollywood” tape and WikiLeaks email releases in 2016, and Trump’s COVID-19 diagnosis in 2020. However, some experts believe the most impactful surprise for 2024 has already occurred.

“It happened in July,” said election forecaster Rachel Bitecofer, referring to the switch from Biden to Harris. “There’s nothing that I can imagine that would shake this cycle from where it’s going to be.”

Others, like crisis communications expert James Haggerty, expect a flurry of attempts to sway voters: “You’re more likely to see an ‘October Spaghetti on the Wall’ approach — throw it out there and see what sticks.”

As early voting becomes more prevalent, the impact of late-breaking news may be diminished. Ultimately, the effectiveness of any October Surprise will depend on how it resonates with key voting blocs and whether it can shift the dynamics of an already unpredictable race.

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