It is hard to pinpoint how many Americans will tune in Tuesday night to watch the first and only scheduled debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.

But here’s an educated guess.

First of all, this is not the Super Bowl. The NFL championship game routinely draws north of 110 million viewers, essentially the high-water mark of live televised events. For the non-sporting crowd, the audience of 106 million people who watched the “M*A*S*H” finale in 1983 is nearly impossible to achieve in the era of smartphones and the internet.

But the “Seinfeld” finale? Not impossible.

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The record for a presidential debate is 84 million viewers, for the first meeting in 2016 between Hillary Clinton and Trump. So Tuesday’s bout between Harris and Trump — which will be simulcast on nearly every major network — could theoretically draw an audience akin to the final episodes of “Seinfeld” (76.3 million) and “Cheers” (80 million).

Trump’s presence alone suggests a large audience will tune in: He has participated in three of the four most-watched general-election debates since 1976.

His first meeting with Joe Biden in 2020 drew 73.1 million viewers, according to Nielsen, making it No. 3 on the list. His final meeting with Clinton in 2016 was seen by 71.6 million people, putting it at No. 4. (Both of those events, incidentally, were moderated by anchor Chris Wallace. He is not moderating on Tuesday.)

The numbers from those events were all the more remarkable because the debates took place in the age of smartphones and streaming. Nielsen data mostly reflects a traditional TV audience; it does not encompass viewers who watch on YouTube livestreams or on a subscription app such as HBO Max. (Those who watch on YouTube TV or Hulu Live, however, will be counted. It’s complicated.)

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The debate in June between Biden and Trump was arguably the most consequential televised debate in U.S. history. Biden’s shaky performance set off a Democratic panic that led him to drop out of the race.

It was seen live by 51.3 million people, an audience comparable to a major NFL playoff game, and, so far, it remains the most-watched moment of the 2024 presidential campaign.

And yet, based on Nielsen ratings, it was the least-watched debate since George W. Bush and John Kerry’s second meeting in 2004.

Several elements worked against Biden and Trump in June. Their debate happened far earlier in the calendar than usual, at a time of year when many Americans were away on vacations. Overall TV viewership is higher in the autumn than in summer, when the sun sets later and outdoor activities are legion.

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And the electorate itself was in a kind of malaise, with many Americans uneasy about a rerun election and unenthusiastic about their choices.

A lot has happened since then. A sizable share of voters are eager to learn more about Harris. And Election Day is now less than two months away.

All of which is to say: Records are made to be broken.

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This article originally appeared in The New York Times.

By Michael M. Grynbaum/Damon Winter
c. 2024 The New York Times Company