Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility

Prime Minister of Yemen’s Houthi Government Killed in Israeli Strike

3 days ago

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott Signs Law Redrawing Congressional Maps

4 days ago

US Air Force will Offer Military Funeral Honors to Slain Capitol Rioter

4 days ago

US Republican Senator Joni Ernst Will Not Run for Re-Election, CBS News Reports

4 days ago

Wall Street Falls as Dell, Nvidia Drive Tech Losses

4 days ago

US Denies Visas to Palestinian Officials Ahead of UN General Assembly

4 days ago

Minneapolis Children Revealed Courage, Absorbed Fear During Church Shooting

5 days ago

Ford Recalls Nearly 500,000 Vehicles Over Brake Fluid Leak

5 days ago

Fresno-Bound Passenger Says Delta Attendant Slapped Him, Seeks $20M

5 days ago
What Happens 'Behind the Curtain'? California Keeps Key Virus Data Under Wraps
gvw_ap_news
By Associated Press
Published 5 years ago on
January 22, 2021

Share

Gov. Gavin Newsom has from the start said his coronavirus policy decisions would be driven by data shared with the public to provide maximum transparency.

But with the state starting to emerge from its worst surge, his administration won’t disclose key information that will help determine when his latest stay-at-home order is lifted.

State health officials said they rely on a very complex set of measurements that would confuse and potentially mislead the public if they were made public.

After Newsom, a Democrat, imposed the nation’s first statewide shutdown in March, his administration developed reopening plans that included benchmarks for virus data such as per capita infection rates that counties needed to meet to relax restrictions.

It released data models state officials used to project whether infections, hospitalizations and deaths are likely to rise or fall.

As cases surged after Thanksgiving, Newsom tore up his playbook. Rather than a county-by-county approach, he created five regions and established a single measurement — ICU capacity — as the determination for whether a region was placed under a stay-at-home order.

In short order, four regions — about 98% of the state’s population — were under the restrictions after their capacity fell below the 15% threshold. A map updated daily tracks each region’s capacity.

At the start of last week, no regions appeared unlikely to have the stay-at-home order lifted soon because their capacity was well below 15%. But within a day, the state announced it was lifting the order for the 13-county Greater Sacramento area.

Suddenly, outdoor dining and worship services were OK again, hair and nail salons and other businesses could reopen, and retailers could have more shoppers inside.

Local officials and businesses were caught off guard. State officials did not describe their reasoning other than to say it was based on a projection for ICU capacity.

State Officials Projected Future Capacity Using a Combination of Models

“It was a good surprise, but we just didn’t see it coming,” California Restaurant Association president and CEO Jot Condie said. “We just don’t know what happens behind the curtain. It’s created logistical difficulties for the industry,” which scrambled to rehire staff and order food.

State health officials relied on a complex formula to project that while the region’s intensive care capacity was below 10%, it would climb above 15% within four weeks. On Thursday, it was 8%, roughly the same as when the order was lifted.

“What happened to the 15%? What was that all about?” asked Dr. George Rutherford, an epidemiologist and infectious-diseases control expert at University of California, San Francisco. “I was surprised. I assume they know something I don’t know.”

State officials projected future capacity using a combination of models.

“At the moment the projections are not being shared publicly,” Department of Public Health spokeswoman Ali Bay said in an email.

California Health and Human Services Agency spokeswoman Kate Folmar said officials are committed to transparency, providing twice-weekly updates on whether certain regions can relax restrictions. But she said projected ICU capacity is based on multiple variables including available beds and staffing that change regularly.

“These fluid, on-the-ground conditions cannot be boiled down to a single data point — and to do so would mislead and create greater uncertainty for Californians,” she said in a statement.

Condie’s association won in court last month after a judge ordered Los Angeles County to provide data supporting its restaurant dining closure order. No data existed, the county acknowledged.

“They’re making projections and decisions that have great consequence to people’s lives,” Condie said of state health officials. “It’s a public agency, so it’s just curious why they wouldn’t share the data, especially with the local health officers. They need advance warning as well.”

San Bernardino County spokesman David Wert said officials there aren’t aware of the models the state is using.

“If they do exist, the county would find them helpful,” he said.

Computer Models Must Take Into Account So Many Factors

Adding to the complexity, the state uses a weighted percentage to determine ICU capacity. COVID-19 patients tend to need longer care, penalizing regions like Southern California that have a higher proportion.

So when the state says Southern California and San Joaquin Valley regions have 0% ICU capacity, it means the bulk of patients in the ICUs are COVID-19 patients, not that there are no ICU beds, Rutherford said.

Dr. Lee Riley, chairman of the University of California, Berkeley School of Public Health infectious disease division, said he would base reopening decisions on current coronavirus cases rather than ICU projections, partially because most people who are hospitalized never require intensive care.

California Health and Human Services Secretary Dr. Mark Ghaly this week cited slowing hospital and skilled nursing home admissions and lower positivity and transmission rates as “rays of hope” for overburdened hospitals.

Yet the data model that he has repeatedly pointed to as key to planning among an array on the state’s website still shows hospitalizations bumping up over the next month, though projections flatten more each day.

The model is based on historical infection data that follows a pattern where about 12% of those with the virus get hospitalized and 12% of them end up in the ICU. The model’s projections do not account for changes in conditions, such as more vaccinations or a lifted stay-at-home order.

Computer models must take into account so many factors that they may be valuable only on a much smaller scale, experts said, perhaps to allow local officials to spot outbreaks or target vaccination campaigns.

“It doesn’t make sense to talk about projections for the whole state,” Riley said. The computer model Ghaly has been citing seems to be accurate “only afterwards, like Monday morning football … so I don’t take the modeling that seriously.”

While the San Francisco Bay Area seems to be improving, for example, Riley expects holiday-related cases to continue plaguing hard-hit Southern California for at least a couple more weeks and keep ICU space extremely tight.

Yet the state’s public model shows a roughly 30% decline in Southern California ICU patients over the next month even as hospitalizations flatten and deaths climb. The model shows a smaller but still significant decline in the equally hard-hit San Joaquin Valley.

“My reading of the tea leaves,” Rutherford said, “is that we’re at the very cusp of entering a period of falling case numbers.”

RELATED TOPICS:

DON'T MISS

What Are Fresno Real Estate Experts Predicting for 2025 and Beyond?

DON'T MISS

First California EV Mandates Hit Automakers This Year. Most Are Not Even Close

DON'T MISS

Tulare County Authorities Investigate Porterville Shooting

DON'T MISS

Trump’s World Liberty Token Falls in First Day of Trading

DON'T MISS

Bessent Expects Supreme Court to Uphold Legality of Trump’s Tariffs but Eyes Plan B

DON'T MISS

Trump Says Rudy Giuliani Will Receive Top US Civilian Honor

DON'T MISS

Aid Flotilla for Gaza Departs Barcelona After Stormy Weather Turnaround

DON'T MISS

Fresno County Garnet Fire Grows to 18,748 Acres in Sierra National Forest

DON'T MISS

US Judge Blocks Deportations of Unaccompanied Migrant Children to Guatemala

DON'T MISS

Israel Pounds Gaza City Suburbs, Netanyahu to Convene Security Cabinet

DON'T MISS

Thousands in Australia March Against Immigration, Government Condemns Rally

DON'T MISS

Trump Says He Will Order Voter ID Requirement for Every Vote

UP NEXT

Dollar Trades Lower With Fed Cut In View, On Course For Monthly Drop

UP NEXT

California Schools Reverse Truancy Trends. Improving Reading Scores Could Be Next

UP NEXT

High-Speed Rail Hits a New Snag as Lawmakers Reject Proposal to Expedite Construction

UP NEXT

Lawsuit Links CA Teen’s Suicide To Artificial Intelligence

UP NEXT

Hearing Ends Without Ruling On Trump’s Firing Of Fed Governor Cook

UP NEXT

Gov. Newsom Launches New Task Force To Clear CA Homeless Encampments

UP NEXT

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott Signs Law Redrawing Congressional Maps

UP NEXT

U.S. News Releases Best High School Rankings. How Did Fresno Schools Do?

UP NEXT

Feds Add Third Charge for Bobby Salazar. Restaurant Owner Denies Them All in Court.

UP NEXT

Fresno vs. Clovis: Which City Is Cheaper to Live in Right Now?

Trump Says Rudy Giuliani Will Receive Top US Civilian Honor

11 hours ago

Aid Flotilla for Gaza Departs Barcelona After Stormy Weather Turnaround

11 hours ago

Fresno County Garnet Fire Grows to 18,748 Acres in Sierra National Forest

2 days ago

US Judge Blocks Deportations of Unaccompanied Migrant Children to Guatemala

2 days ago

Israel Pounds Gaza City Suburbs, Netanyahu to Convene Security Cabinet

2 days ago

Thousands in Australia March Against Immigration, Government Condemns Rally

2 days ago

Trump Says He Will Order Voter ID Requirement for Every Vote

2 days ago

Greta Thunberg Joins Flotilla Heading for Gaza With Aid

2 days ago

Chicago Mayor Says Police Will Not Aid Federal Troops or Agents

2 days ago

Post-War Gaza Plan Sees Relocation of Population, ‘Digital Token’ for Palestinian Land: Washington Post

2 days ago

Tulare County Authorities Investigate Porterville Shooting

Tulare County sheriff’s deputies are investigating a shooting that left a man injured in Porterville on Monday afternoon. Deputies were call...

9 hours ago

A man was hospitalized after being shot Monday, Sept. 1, 2025, afternoon in Porterville, and Tulare County sheriff’s detectives are investigating. (Tulare County SO)
9 hours ago

Tulare County Authorities Investigate Porterville Shooting

Zach Witkoff, Co-Founder and CEO of World Liberty Financial, Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump pose before they ring the opening bell to celebrate the closing of ALT5’s $1.5 billion offering and adoption of its $WLFI Treasury Strategy at the Nasdaq Market, in New York City, U.S., August 13, 2025. (Reuters File)
9 hours ago

Trump’s World Liberty Token Falls in First Day of Trading

U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent pays his bill during a Labor Day visit to McLean Family Restaurant in McLean, Virginia, U.S., September 1, 2025. (Reuters/Brian Snyder)
9 hours ago

Bessent Expects Supreme Court to Uphold Legality of Trump’s Tariffs but Eyes Plan B

Former New York City Mayor and former lawyer for U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, Rudy Giuliani walks outside United States District Court in Manhattan, where a judge will consider a request by two Georgia election workers to whom he owes $148 million for defamation to hold him in civil contempt for failing to turn over his assets, in New York City, U.S., January 3, 2025. (Reuters File)
11 hours ago

Trump Says Rudy Giuliani Will Receive Top US Civilian Honor

Swedish activist Greta Thunberg departs with other activists on the Global Sumud Flotilla, a humanitarian expedition to Gaza, from the port of Barcelona, Spain August 31, 2025. The Sagrada Familia is seen in the background. (Reuters File)
11 hours ago

Aid Flotilla for Gaza Departs Barcelona After Stormy Weather Turnaround

Photo: USDA - Forest Service Tanker 40 at Fresno Air Attack Base. The Fresno County Garnet Fire in the Sierra National Forest has burned 18,748 acres and is 8% contained as crews make progress on containment lines while bracing for possible thunderstorms early this week. (Sam Wu/USFS)
2 days ago

Fresno County Garnet Fire Grows to 18,748 Acres in Sierra National Forest

U.S. flag and Judge gavel are seen in this illustration taken, August 6, 2024. (Reuters File)
2 days ago

US Judge Blocks Deportations of Unaccompanied Migrant Children to Guatemala

Smoke rises from Gaza after an explosion, as seen from the Israeli side of the border, August 31, 2025. (Reuters/Amir Cohen)
2 days ago

Israel Pounds Gaza City Suburbs, Netanyahu to Convene Security Cabinet

Search

Help continue the work that gets you the news that matters most.

Send this to a friend