Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility
Podcast: What Happens to Housing Costs After the Big Quake Hits?
gvw_calmatters
By CalMatters
Published 5 years ago on
July 19, 2019

Share

California was lucky. Again.


Opinion
Matt Levin
CALmatters

The major earthquakes that rattled the Mojave Desert town of Ridgecrest earlier this month — a magnitude 6.4 temblor on July 4th followed a few days later by a whopping 7.1 quake felt throughout Southern California — were far from major population centers. Damage to people and property was relatively minimal. Even Ridgecrest itself, with most if its single-family housing constructed under updated building codes, surprised earthquake engineers by emerging from the twin quakes with scrapes and bruises but no serious devastation.
For the past quarter-century, dozens of earthquakes in more remote parts of the state have stirred the low-level anxiety that Californians closer to the coast have lived with since the 1989 Loma Prieta quake collapsed a segment of the Bay Bridge, and the 1994 Northridge quake crumbled key Los Angeles-area freeways. Residents near the San Andreas or Hayward or Puente Hills fault lines follow a familiar routine after these more-distant temblors: Call loved ones feeling the aftershocks, make a mental note to re-stock the earthquake kit with bottled water, and spend the next few days hoping they’ll be on vacation when “the big one” finally happens.
But for a state in the midst of a housing affordability crisis that experts say is primarily due to a shortage of available homes and apartments, the Ridgecrest quakes provoke another unsettling thought — one that was less pressing decades ago when places like Los Angeles and San Francisco were far cheaper to live in. When the inevitable happens and a big quake hits a major city, what will happen to housing costs?

Familiar Figure in California Housing Circles

The wildfires that have devastated smaller California cities in recent years provide a window into what could happen. Since last November’s Camp Fire ravaged the small Central Valley town of Paradise, the neighboring city of Chico has struggled to find available housing for evacuees. Demand for rental housing has skyrocketed and home prices have soared.

“The wildfires have really given us something to go by in really understanding what the impact on communities can be after disasters.” Maiclaire Bolton Smith, seismologist for the real estate data firm CoreLogic
“The wildfires have really given us something to go by in really understanding what the impact on communities can be after disasters,” Maiclaire Bolton Smith, seismologist for the real estate data firm CoreLogic, said on “Gimme Shelter: The California Housing Crisis Podcast.”
“The need for rental properties may increase because of just supply and demand, given the fact that there will be a lot of people needing places to live” and diminished supply, she said.
But the possible scale of damage from a major earthquake — and the displaced Californians who would need of temporary and/or permanent housing—is far larger than what even the most devastating wildfires have wrought.
The United States Geological Survey forecasts that a magnitude 7.0 earthquake on the Hayward Fault, which runs through Oakland, could temporarily displace up to 400,000 people in the East Bay and Silicon Valley.
A CoreLogic simulation of a major San Andreas quake – one big enough to strike both Northern and Southern California simultaneously — estimates as many as 3.5 million single-family homes could be damaged.
That’s a familiar figure in California housing circles: It’s the exact same number Gov. Gavin Newsom has said he wants to build by 2025 to ease the state’s housing shortage.
On this episode of “Gimme Shelter,” CalMatters’ Matt Levin and the Los Angeles Times’ Liam Dillon discuss how “the big one” could exacerbate California’s housing crisis.

CalMatters.org
 is a nonprofit, nonpartisan media venture explaining California policies and politics.

DON'T MISS

What to Know About Pam Bondi, Trump’s New Pick for Attorney General

DON'T MISS

North Korean Leader Says Past Diplomacy Only Confirmed US Hostility

DON'T MISS

Democrats Strike Deal to Get More Biden Judges Confirmed Before Congress Adjourns

DON'T MISS

Newsom Gaslights on Potential Gas Price Hikes in Fresno Visit

DON'T MISS

Automakers to Trump: Please Require Us to Sell Electric Vehicles

DON'T MISS

President Biden Welcomes 2024 NBA Champion Boston Celtics to White House

DON'T MISS

Ohtani Makes History With 3rd MVP, Judge Claims 2nd AL Honor

DON'T MISS

Trump Chooses Pam Bondi for Attorney General Pick After Gaetz Withdraws

DON'T MISS

Average Rate on a 30-Year Mortgage in the US Rises to Highest Level Since July

DON'T MISS

Cutting in Line? American Airlines’ New Boarding Tech Might Stop You at Now Over 100 Airports

UP NEXT

How Trump Can Earn a Place in History That He Did Not Expect

UP NEXT

Demography Drives Destiny and Right Now California Is Losing

UP NEXT

Defining Deviancy Down. And Down. And Down.

UP NEXT

How Three Trump Policy Decrees Could Affect California Farmers

UP NEXT

Donald Trump Is Already Starting to Fail

UP NEXT

I Can’t Wait for Matt Gaetz’s Confirmation Hearings

UP NEXT

Let the Games Begin: 2026 Campaign for CA Governor Looms

UP NEXT

Why Trump’s Deportations Will Drive Up Your Grocery Bill

UP NEXT

Dems Still Dominate California, but Their Voters Have Drifted to the Right

UP NEXT

If You Thought Trump Wasn’t Serious About Deportations, Look at His First Appointments

Newsom Gaslights on Potential Gas Price Hikes in Fresno Visit

6 hours ago

Automakers to Trump: Please Require Us to Sell Electric Vehicles

6 hours ago

President Biden Welcomes 2024 NBA Champion Boston Celtics to White House

6 hours ago

Ohtani Makes History With 3rd MVP, Judge Claims 2nd AL Honor

6 hours ago

Trump Chooses Pam Bondi for Attorney General Pick After Gaetz Withdraws

7 hours ago

Average Rate on a 30-Year Mortgage in the US Rises to Highest Level Since July

7 hours ago

Cutting in Line? American Airlines’ New Boarding Tech Might Stop You at Now Over 100 Airports

7 hours ago

MLB Will Test Robot Umpires at 13 Spring Training Ballparks Hosting 19 Teams

8 hours ago

Death Toll in Gaza From Israel-Hamas War Passes 44,000, Palestinian Officials Say

8 hours ago

Jussie Smollett’s Conviction in 2019 Attack on Himself Is Overturned

8 hours ago

What to Know About Pam Bondi, Trump’s New Pick for Attorney General

NEW YORK — Pam Bondi, the former Florida attorney general, was chosen Thursday by Donald Trump to serve as U.S. attorney general hours after...

4 hours ago

4 hours ago

What to Know About Pam Bondi, Trump’s New Pick for Attorney General

5 hours ago

North Korean Leader Says Past Diplomacy Only Confirmed US Hostility

5 hours ago

Democrats Strike Deal to Get More Biden Judges Confirmed Before Congress Adjourns

6 hours ago

Newsom Gaslights on Potential Gas Price Hikes in Fresno Visit

President Joe Biden with Mary Barra, the chief executive of General Motors, at the Detroit Auto Show, Sept. 14, 2022. President-elect Donald Trump has promised to erase the Biden administration’s tailpipe rules designed to get carmakers to produce electric vehicles, but most U.S. automakers want to keep them. (Doug Mills/The New York Times)
6 hours ago

Automakers to Trump: Please Require Us to Sell Electric Vehicles

6 hours ago

President Biden Welcomes 2024 NBA Champion Boston Celtics to White House

6 hours ago

Ohtani Makes History With 3rd MVP, Judge Claims 2nd AL Honor

Former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi, speaks before Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump arrives to speak at a campaign rally at First Horizon Coliseum, Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024, in Greensboro, NC. (AP/Alex Brandon)
7 hours ago

Trump Chooses Pam Bondi for Attorney General Pick After Gaetz Withdraws

Help continue the work that gets you the news that matters most.

Search

Send this to a friend