Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility

California Republican Leader Calls for ‘Two State Solution’ Amid Redistricting Fight

9 minutes ago

Israeli Tanks Close in on Gaza City, Trump to Chair Meeting

2 hours ago

Wall Street Opens Muted in Countdown to Nvidia Earnings

3 hours ago

Fresno Leaders Voice ‘Full Support’ for Pismo’s Restaurant Manager in ICE Custody

19 hours ago

Poll: Katie Porter Holds Early Edge in California Governor’s Race

21 hours ago

Just 38% of Americans Support Trump’s Use of Troops to Police DC, Reuters/Ipsos Poll Finds

22 hours ago

Families Leave Gaza City After Night of Bombardment, Israelis Protest

1 day ago

California Farming Couple Seeks $300 Million for Aspen Estate

1 day ago

Trump Administration Cannot Sue Maryland Federal Judges Over Immigration Order, Judge Rules

1 day ago

California Republicans Sue to Block Congressional Redistricting Plan

2 days ago
Walters: Demography Is California’s Destiny
Portrait of CalMatters Columnist Dan Walters
By Dan Walters, CalMatters Commentary
Published 6 years ago on
May 12, 2019

Share

Who first declared that “demography is destiny” is uncertain, but that doesn’t detract from the aphorism’s validity—and what’s happening in California right now proves it.

Opinion

Dan Walters
CALmatters Commentary

During the 1980s, California was experiencing a strong inflow of people from other states, even stronger immigration from other countries, legal and otherwise, and an explosion of births, more than 600,000 babies a year.

The state Department of Finance released one of its periodic reports on California population trends this month, revealing that while we’re very close to 40 million residents, growth has slowed to a snail’s pace.

California added just 186,807 souls in 2018, the department’s demographers calculated, just a 0.47 % gain, the slowest in recorded history and only a quarter of the state’s growth rate during the 1980s, which was its last great population boom period before a long-term slide began.

During the 1980s, California was experiencing a strong inflow of people from other states, even stronger immigration from other countries, legal and otherwise, and an explosion of births, more than 600,000 babies a year.

All of those trends have now reversed. We lose more people to other states than we gain (Texas is the No. 1 destination for our expats); foreign immigration is close to nil; births have dropped to well under 500,000 a year; and deaths are increasing as members of the post-World War II baby boom generation become elderly.

California Will Be Lucky to Break Even in Congressional Seats

The decline in births and immigration and the aging of the baby boomers mean California, which has traditionally had a relatively young and vibrant population, is rapidly graying. We are becoming more like states in the East and the upper Midwest, while our neighboring states are more like California used to be.

The population boom of the 1980s pushed California from 24 million residents to 30 million, and after the 1990 census it was awarded seven additional congressional seats. Growth slowed in the 1990s, so we got just one new seat after the 2000 census, and none after the 2010 census.

Demographers say California will be lucky to break even in congressional seats after the 2020 census and could lose one seat — even if the count is not depressed by a very controversial citizenship question, as state officials fear.

Thus, one consequence of much slower population growth is relatively declining political influence, not only in congressional seats but in presidential electoral votes based on those seats.

The biggest impacts, however, will be felt in the socioeconomic realm. A stagnant, aging population will generate fewer workers for the state’s economy, exacerbated by low academic gains in the state’s school system and high housing costs that discourage migration to California and push educated Californians to other states.

Attracting and Training More Immigrants Vital to State’s Health Care System

Eventually, a chronic lack of trained and trainable workers will translate into less economic investment. It also will make providing services to the fast-growing numbers of elderly Californians more difficult, as a new report from the Public Policy Institute of California underscores.

Nearly a third of California’s current health care workforce is foreign-born — twice the level of the nation as a whole.

The state will need to fill more than 107,000 new health care jobs each year between 2016 and 2026, PPIC points out, and will likely be unable to fill them without a strong inflow of foreign-born workers.

Nearly a third of California’s current health care workforce is foreign-born — twice the level of the nation as a whole — and that includes 36% of physicians, 35% of registered nurses and 42% of health aides.

Attracting and training more immigrants will be vital to the viability of California’s health care system, which is also the state’s largest single economic activity, at some $400 billion a year. And what’s true about health care is also true about the state’s other major industries, including high technology.

Demography is, indeed, our destiny. We ignore it at our peril.

CALmatters is a public-interest journalism venture committed to explaining how California’s state Capitol works and why it matters. For more stories by Dan Walters, go to calmatters.org/commentary.

[activecampaign form=19]

DON'T MISS

What Are Fresno Real Estate Experts Predicting for 2025 and Beyond?

DON'T MISS

First California EV Mandates Hit Automakers This Year. Most Are Not Even Close

DON'T MISS

California Republican Leader Calls for ‘Two State Solution’ Amid Redistricting Fight

DON'T MISS

Fresno Police Find Two Narcotics Labs, Firearms in Southeast Home

DON'T MISS

Fresno County Garnet Fire Grows to More Than 9,000 Acres in Sierra National Forest

DON'T MISS

Three Dead in Minneapolis Shooting, Including Shooter, Justice Department Official Says

DON'T MISS

TikTok Owner ByteDance Sets Valuation at Over $330 Billion as Revenue Grows, Sources Say

DON'T MISS

Fresno County Fatal Collision Under Investigation Near Kerman

DON'T MISS

Israel’s Gaza Campaign Is Making It a Pariah State

DON'T MISS

Trump Administration Plans to Take Control of Washington Union Station

DON'T MISS

Israeli Tanks Close in on Gaza City, Trump to Chair Meeting

DON'T MISS

Trump Says Soros and His Son Should Be Charged With RICO

UP NEXT

Wilted Lettuce. Rotten Strawberries. Here’s What Happens When You Round Up Farmworkers.

UP NEXT

Renewal of CA Cap and Trade Program to Cut Emissions Fraught With Issues

UP NEXT

Joe Castro: A Life Cut Far Too Short, but His Legacy Marches On

UP NEXT

Why Epstein’s Furious Grip on Washington Holds

UP NEXT

I Was Preyed On for My VA Benefits. California Can Stop It

UP NEXT

My Friend Joseph Castro, Former Fresno State President and CSU Chancellor, Is Receiving Hospice Care

UP NEXT

California’s Finances Face a Perfect Storm. It Could Eventually Lead to Another Tax Hike

UP NEXT

What Trump Is Really Up to With the Military Occupation of DC

UP NEXT

Immigrant Students Shape California’s Future. Don’t Close the Door on Them

UP NEXT

Trump’s Domestic Deployments Are Dangerous. For the Military

Three Dead in Minneapolis Shooting, Including Shooter, Justice Department Official Says

1 hour ago

TikTok Owner ByteDance Sets Valuation at Over $330 Billion as Revenue Grows, Sources Say

2 hours ago

Fresno County Fatal Collision Under Investigation Near Kerman

2 hours ago

Israel’s Gaza Campaign Is Making It a Pariah State

2 hours ago

Trump Administration Plans to Take Control of Washington Union Station

2 hours ago

Israeli Tanks Close in on Gaza City, Trump to Chair Meeting

2 hours ago

Trump Says Soros and His Son Should Be Charged With RICO

2 hours ago

Wall Street Opens Muted in Countdown to Nvidia Earnings

3 hours ago

Zohran Mamdani, Rapper Turned NYC Mayoral Frontrunner, Embraces Diverse Roots

3 hours ago

California Searchers Pull Off High-Altitude Rescue of Missing Hiker

16 hours ago

California Republican Leader Calls for ‘Two State Solution’ Amid Redistricting Fight

California’s top Assembly Republican is pushing a plan to divide the state in two, describing it as a “two state solution” to ongoing redist...

9 minutes ago

California Assembly Republican Leader James Gallagher proposed splitting the state into two, calling it a “two state solution” to separate inland GOP areas from coastal Democratic strongholds amid a redistricting battle. (GV Wire Composite)
9 minutes ago

California Republican Leader Calls for ‘Two State Solution’ Amid Redistricting Fight

Fresno police discovered two narcotics labs, multiple firearms, and operating slot machines during a probation check, leading to three arrests. (Fresno PD)
27 minutes ago

Fresno Police Find Two Narcotics Labs, Firearms in Southeast Home

The Garnet Fire in Fresno County’s Sierra National Forest has burned 9,170 acres with no containment as crews focus on protecting PG&E infrastructure near Balch Camp, the U.S. Forest Service said Wednesday, August 27, 2025. (U.S. Forest Service)
1 hour ago

Fresno County Garnet Fire Grows to More Than 9,000 Acres in Sierra National Forest

Photo of caution tape
1 hour ago

Three Dead in Minneapolis Shooting, Including Shooter, Justice Department Official Says

The ByteDance logo is seen at the company's office building in Shanghai, China July 4, 2023. (Reuters File)
2 hours ago

TikTok Owner ByteDance Sets Valuation at Over $330 Billion as Revenue Grows, Sources Say

2 hours ago

Fresno County Fatal Collision Under Investigation Near Kerman

Palestinian Child Carrying Water Amid Gaza City Rubble
2 hours ago

Israel’s Gaza Campaign Is Making It a Pariah State

U.S. National Guard members patrol inside Union Station, after U.S. President Donald Trump deployed National Guard and ordered an increased presence of federal law enforcement to assist in crime prevention, in Washington, DC, U.S., August 21, 2025. (Reuters File)
2 hours ago

Trump Administration Plans to Take Control of Washington Union Station

Search

Help continue the work that gets you the news that matters most.

Send this to a friend