Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility
Fed Signals Neither a Rate Hike nor a Cut Is Likely Soon
gvw_ap_news
By Associated Press
Published 6 years ago on
May 1, 2019

Share

WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve left its key interest rate unchanged Wednesday and signaled that it’s unlikely to either raise or cut rates in coming months amid signs of renewed economic health but unusually low inflation.

The Fed left its benchmark rate — which influences many consumer and business loans — in a range of 2.25% to 2.5%. Its low-rate policy has helped boost stock prices and supported a steadily growing economy.

“The committee is comfortable with our current policy stance.” — Chairman Jerome Powell

A statement from the Fed spotlighted its continuing failure so far to lift annual inflation to at least its 2% target rate. The Fed’s preferred 12-month inflation barometer is running at about 1.5%. In pointing to persistently low inflation, the statement might have raised expectations that the Fed’s next rate change, whenever it happens, could be a rate cut. The Fed cuts rates when it’s trying to stimulate inflation or growth.

But at a news conference later, Chairman Jerome Powell declined to hint of any potential coming rate cut. He suggested that the current too-low inflation readings may be transitory or might not be fully capturing real-world price increases.

“The committee is comfortable with our current policy stance,” Powell said.

His comments appeared to deflate a modest stock market rally that occurred after the Fed issued its statement, with its mention of unusually low inflation.

Fed Expresses More Upbeat View of  Economy

The Fed also made a technical adjustment Wednesday to reduce the interest it pays banks on reserves as a way to keep its benchmark rate inside its approved range, rather than at the upper end of that range.

The central bank’s decision to make no change in its rate policy — approved on a 10-0 vote — had been expected despite renewed pressure from President Donald Trump for the Fed to cut rates aggressively to help accelerate economic growth.

The Fed expressed a more upbeat view of the economy, saying “economic activity rose at a solid rate.” In March, the Fed had said it appeared that growth had slowed from the fourth quarter of last year.

The generally brighter outlook for the economy and the stock market represents a sharp rebound from the final months of 2018, when concerns about a possible global recession and fear of further Fed rate increases had darkened the economic picture. Stock prices tumbled late last year, especially after the Fed in December not only raised rates for the fourth time in 2018 but suggested that it was likely to keep tightening credit this year.

Yet starting in January, the Fed engineered an abrupt reversal, suggesting that it was finished raising rates for now and might even act this year to support rather than restrain the economy. Its watchword became “patient.” And investors have responded by delivering a major stock market rally.

The market gains have also been fed by improved growth prospects in China and some other major economies and by the view that a trade war between the world’s two biggest economies, the United States and China, is nearing a resolution.

Investors See No Probability of Rate Hike This Year

Last week, the government reported that the U.S. economy grew at a surprisingly strong 3.2% annual rate in the January-March quarter. It was the best performance for a first quarter in four years, and it far surpassed initial forecasts that annual growth could be as weak as 1% at the start of the year.

Indeed, for all of 2019, growth is expected to total around 2.2%, down from last year’s 2.7% gain, as the effects of the 2017 tax cuts and billions of dollars in increased government spending fade.

If economic prospects were to brighten further, could Fed officials rethink their plans to suspend further rate hikes and perhaps resume tightening credit?

Possibly. But investors don’t seem to think so. According to data tracked by the CME Group, investors foresee zero probability that the Fed will raise rates anytime this year. And in fact, their bets indicate a roughly 64% likelihood that the Fed will cut rates before year’s end.

One factor in that dovish view is that the economy might not be quite as robust as the latest economic figures suggest. The first quarter’s healthy 3.2% annual growth rate was pumped up by some temporary factors — from a surge in restocking of companies’ inventories to a narrowing of the U.S. trade deficit — that are expected to reverse themselves. If so, this would diminish the pace of growth and likely hold down inflation.

Indeed, for all of 2019, growth is expected to total around 2.2%, down from last year’s 2.7% gain, as the effects of the 2017 tax cuts and billions of dollars in increased government spending fade.

Trump Presses Fed to Cut Rates

At the same time, the Fed is still struggling to achieve one of its mandates: To produce inflation of roughly 2%. This week, the government reported that the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge rose just 1.5% in March from 12 months earlier. Many analysts say they think the Fed won’t resume raising rates until inflation hits or exceeds its 2% target.

Too-low inflation is seen as an obstacle because it tends to depress consumer spending, the economy’s main fuel, as people delay purchases in anticipation of flat or even lower prices. It also raise the inflation-adjusted cost of a loan.

In the meantime, President Donald Trump has attacked Powell’s leadership as being too restrictive toward rates and has pressed the Fed to cut rates — something few mainstream economists favor.

On Tuesday, Trump tweeted that the U.S. economy has “the potential to go up like a rocket” if the Fed would only slash rates and resume the emergency bond buying programs it unveiled after the Great Recession to ease long-term loan rates to stimulate spending and growth.

Powell has so far stuck to his long-standing position that the Fed will keep pursuing its goals of maximum employment and stable inflation without regard to outside influence.

DON'T MISS

What to Know About Pam Bondi, Trump’s New Pick for Attorney General

DON'T MISS

North Korean Leader Says Past Diplomacy Only Confirmed US Hostility

DON'T MISS

Democrats Strike Deal to Get More Biden Judges Confirmed Before Congress Adjourns

DON'T MISS

Newsom Gaslights on Potential Gas Price Hikes in Fresno Visit

DON'T MISS

Automakers to Trump: Please Require Us to Sell Electric Vehicles

DON'T MISS

President Biden Welcomes 2024 NBA Champion Boston Celtics to White House

DON'T MISS

Ohtani Makes History With 3rd MVP, Judge Claims 2nd AL Honor

DON'T MISS

Trump Chooses Pam Bondi for Attorney General Pick After Gaetz Withdraws

DON'T MISS

Average Rate on a 30-Year Mortgage in the US Rises to Highest Level Since July

DON'T MISS

Cutting in Line? American Airlines’ New Boarding Tech Might Stop You at Now Over 100 Airports

UP NEXT

Bomb Cyclone Kills 1 and Knocks Out Power to Over Half a Million Homes Across the Northwest US

UP NEXT

Volunteers Came Back to Nonprofits in 2023, After the Pandemic Tanked Participation

UP NEXT

New Study: Proposed Trump Tariffs Could Cost US Consumers $78 Billion a Year

UP NEXT

Riders Stuck in Midair for Over 2 Hours on Knott’s Berry Farm Ride

UP NEXT

Shouting Racial Slurs, Neo-Nazi Marchers Shock Ohio’s Capital

UP NEXT

More Logging Is Proposed to Help Curb Wildfires in the US Pacific Northwest

UP NEXT

Scientists Fear What’s Next for Public Health if RFK Jr. Is Allowed To ‘Go Wild’

UP NEXT

Warren Slams Biden Admin for Failing to Hold Israel Accountable on Gaza Aid

UP NEXT

Suicides in the US Military Increased in 2023, Continuing a Long-Term Trend

UP NEXT

New FDA Rules for TV Drug Ads: Simpler Language and No Distractions

Newsom Gaslights on Potential Gas Price Hikes in Fresno Visit

11 hours ago

Automakers to Trump: Please Require Us to Sell Electric Vehicles

11 hours ago

President Biden Welcomes 2024 NBA Champion Boston Celtics to White House

11 hours ago

Ohtani Makes History With 3rd MVP, Judge Claims 2nd AL Honor

12 hours ago

Trump Chooses Pam Bondi for Attorney General Pick After Gaetz Withdraws

12 hours ago

Average Rate on a 30-Year Mortgage in the US Rises to Highest Level Since July

13 hours ago

Cutting in Line? American Airlines’ New Boarding Tech Might Stop You at Now Over 100 Airports

13 hours ago

MLB Will Test Robot Umpires at 13 Spring Training Ballparks Hosting 19 Teams

13 hours ago

Death Toll in Gaza From Israel-Hamas War Passes 44,000, Palestinian Officials Say

13 hours ago

Jussie Smollett’s Conviction in 2019 Attack on Himself Is Overturned

13 hours ago

What to Know About Pam Bondi, Trump’s New Pick for Attorney General

NEW YORK — Pam Bondi, the former Florida attorney general, was chosen Thursday by Donald Trump to serve as U.S. attorney general hours after...

9 hours ago

9 hours ago

What to Know About Pam Bondi, Trump’s New Pick for Attorney General

10 hours ago

North Korean Leader Says Past Diplomacy Only Confirmed US Hostility

10 hours ago

Democrats Strike Deal to Get More Biden Judges Confirmed Before Congress Adjourns

11 hours ago

Newsom Gaslights on Potential Gas Price Hikes in Fresno Visit

President Joe Biden with Mary Barra, the chief executive of General Motors, at the Detroit Auto Show, Sept. 14, 2022. President-elect Donald Trump has promised to erase the Biden administration’s tailpipe rules designed to get carmakers to produce electric vehicles, but most U.S. automakers want to keep them. (Doug Mills/The New York Times)
11 hours ago

Automakers to Trump: Please Require Us to Sell Electric Vehicles

11 hours ago

President Biden Welcomes 2024 NBA Champion Boston Celtics to White House

12 hours ago

Ohtani Makes History With 3rd MVP, Judge Claims 2nd AL Honor

Former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi, speaks before Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump arrives to speak at a campaign rally at First Horizon Coliseum, Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024, in Greensboro, NC. (AP/Alex Brandon)
12 hours ago

Trump Chooses Pam Bondi for Attorney General Pick After Gaetz Withdraws

Help continue the work that gets you the news that matters most.

Search

Send this to a friend