In California’s Central Valley, the state’s third-largest school district, Fresno Unified, has steadily lost students in recent years while neighboring districts have all gained them.

Lower birth rates are driving enrollment declines across many California districts. But in Fresno, demographics tell only part of the story. Families are choosing where to live and enroll their children based on school performance, district reputation, access to educational programs and housing availability, reshaping enrollment across the Fresno area.

These local dynamics underscore a broader finding from a May 2026 Getting Down to Facts Stanford report: each community’s experience is shaped by its own mix of demographics, school choice, and local conditions.

California’s K-12 school enrollment dropped by nearly 75,000 students in the 2025-26 school year, continuing a decline that started well before the pandemic.

Even so, enrollment trends vary. As many districts are shrinking, others have stabilized or are growing — sometimes within the same county or city, according to the Getting Down to Facts report.

The Fresno area illustrates that contrast. Since 2021-22, when schools reopened after the pandemic, Fresno Unified’s enrollment has dropped from 69,524 to 66,824 students. During the same period, neighboring districts grew, and fueled a local school construction boom. Enrollment in Clovis Unified rose from 41,954 to 43,254, becoming the state’s 11th-largest school district. Central Unified increased enrollment from 15,729 to 16,008, and Sanger Unified grew from 11,630 to 12,103 students.

Families Come to the Fresno Area for Affordability

Housing is one reason neighboring districts are growing while Fresno Unified has not. High housing costs in California’s coastal regions are pushing families to the more affordable Central Valley, where the Fresno area remains one of the few places many can still afford to buy a home, said Darren Rose, president and CEO of the Building Industry Association of Fresno and Madera Counties. For many homebuyers, the local school district is a major factor in deciding where to live.

Families moving to Fresno have four large public school districts to choose from. Fresno Unified serves most of the city, especially its central and southern neighborhoods, while Clovis Unified covers part of the north, Central Unified the west and Sanger Unified the southeast.

Much of the area’s planned residential development falls within the boundaries of the Central and Clovis unified school districts, whereas Fresno Unified has relatively little land available for new housing.

“It’s very limited in places to build future homes,” Rose said.

Housing is only part of the equation, however. Families also weigh school quality, district reputation, and academic opportunities when deciding where to enroll their children.

Fresno Unified, where more than 89% of students are socioeconomically disadvantaged, has struggled to get most of them to grade-level proficiency, though there have been improvements. In 2025, 37% of students met state English standards, and 27% met math standards.

Families Base School Choice on District Reputation, Community Perception

Meanwhile, Clovis Unified consistently posts some of the highest student achievement scores in California, with nearly 68% of students meeting English standards, and 54% meeting math standards in 2025.

Those results helped persuade Quadratulah Ayer and his family to settle within Clovis Unified, after moving from Modesto in 2022. He said his five children have thrived academically over the last four years.

The district offers dozens of academic, athletic and Career Technical Education (CTE) programs, including 21 broad pathways to expose students to careers.

“Parents are looking for opportunities for their students and their families, and we have been able to provide that,” Clovis Unified spokesperson Kelly Avants said.

Sanger Unified also benefits from a strong reputation. Ranetta Bron, a parent of three, moved to Sanger from Madera, a larger city north of Fresno, in 2014 when her oldest was about to start kindergarten. She wanted the small-town atmosphere and close-knit school community.

“I really heard great things about the Sanger community, and how everyone is in that same spirit of just sharing responsibilities for all the kids growing up,” Bron said. She said she found a school community that believed in raising children as a village.

The school district also exposes students to the agriculture industry early on, another draw for Bron. Two of the Sanger K-8 schools her children attended, for example, incorporated agriculture with hands-on learning in gardens, greenhouses and outdoor spaces and lessons at each grade level. At the high school level, her 15- and 17-year olds have access to programs and clubs, career pathways and dual enrollment, “so that they can have better footing when they graduate high school,” Bron said.

Once an underperforming school district, Sanger Unified has ranked higher in English and math proficiency than the state average over the past decade. About 53% of Sanger Unified students demonstrated proficiency in English compared to nearly 49% statewide in 2025. In math, 40% were proficient or above compared to 37% of students statewide.

Fierce Competition

Families aren’t just choosing among the traditional K-12 school districts. Charter schools have become another major competitor for students.

The share of California public school students attending charter schools has grown from 9% in 2014–15 to 12.5% in 2024-25, according to the Public Policy Institute of California.

Fresno Unified has tracked where students go after leaving the district. Its analysis found that most former students enroll in charter schools, followed by neighboring districts, including Clovis, Madera, Central, and Sanger unified school districts. Others move elsewhere in California, leave the state, enroll in online charter schools or move out of the country.

To retain students, Fresno Unified has expanded career technical education and specialized programs beginning in elementary school.

The district offers K-6 career-focused initiatives, for example. Fresno Unified has created and grown pathway programs over the years, including its Teacher Academy programs and cosmetology/barbering enrichment courses. The district has opened facilities designed to increase student opportunities for hands-on learning in the high-demand industries of manufacturing or technology.

Stanford’s Getting Down to Facts report says districts can help slow enrollment declines by offering distinct academic programs that encourage students to stay.

Already, Fresno Unified has visual and performing arts and science and technology magnet elementary schools; environmental science and interdisciplinary middle schools; and dual enrollment, health science and business high schools.

Despite Student retention, City Changes Affect Enrollment

Even as districts compete for students, future housing development may have an even greater impact on where families enroll their children. A decades-old plan to develop large swaths of mostly agricultural farmland may further exacerbate Fresno Unified’s enrollment decline.

The proposed Southeast Development Area, or SEDA, plan would add more than 40,000 homes in Southeast Fresno, an area within the attendance boundaries of the Clovis and Sanger school districts. Both the Fresno and Central Unified school boards have officially opposed SEDA, which could redistribute families, resulting in declining enrollment in long-standing neighborhood schools.

Fresno Unified anticipates school mergers or other actions affecting at least 10 campuses due to potential declines so far.

“The result, if this plan were to be approved, is that it will kill the third-largest school district in the state of California,” Manuel Bonilla, president of the Fresno Teachers Association, told EdSource.

Central Unified, arguing that it would shift students away from established neighborhood schools, in its resolution opposing the project, said “housing policy must be aligned with, not in conflict with, the long-term stability and success of the communities and schools already here.”

The SEDA plan has stalled but is expected to be reintroduced by Fresno Mayor Jerry Dyer this August, The Fresno Bee reported.

Experts and community members say a solution to possible enrollment shifts lies in collaboration between school district leaders and local officials.

And as California prepares for years of declining enrollment, local decisions such as those on housing and community investment may increasingly determine which districts grow — and which continue to shrink.