In this year’s most competitive Senate races, some candidates are winning over voters with strong platforms or personal appeal, while others are benefiting from voters’ disdain for the opposing party. The latest New York Times/Siena polls of battleground Senate races asked voters to describe why they support their preferred candidate. They were also asked which party they wanted to control the Senate in the fall. Comparing the answers to those questions can help us understand what makes a strong — or weak — candidate across states.

Candidates More Popular Than Their Parties

Across the six states polled — Alaska, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas — 4% of voters supported a candidate who was not from the party they wanted to control the Senate. In exceedingly close races, that could be the difference between winning and losing.

In Alaska, for example, 41% of voters prefer Democratic control of the Senate, but 45% of voters said they planned to vote for Mary Peltola — a 4-percentage-point overperformance by the Democratic candidate. That overperformance by the Democratic candidate held true in every state polled other than Maine, where the poll was conducted before Graham Platner withdrew from the race following a rape accusation.

To win the chamber, Democrats would need to flip the Republican-held seats in four of these six states — five of which backed President Donald Trump in 2024. If the election were held today, the polls found that Republicans would retain control.

However, the Democratic overperformance by candidates in several states could be a sign that some voters who don’t necessarily want Democrats running Congress are still open to backing the party’s candidate in their state. In North Carolina, Alaska and Ohio, for example, the Democratic nominees were boosted by positive views of the candidates.

Republicans have their own well-liked candidates in Maine and Alaska. But in some races, such as Iowa and Ohio, the Republican candidates’ support was more tied to party-line support and concerns about their Democratic opponents.

Candidates Whose Support Is More About Their Personal Appeal

Roy Cooper in North Carolina and Peltola in Alaska, both Democrats, and Susan Collins, the Republican incumbent in Maine, earned the highest shares of support driven by perceptions of their character, which was the top driver of support for each candidate. This may stem in part from the reputations they have built holding statewide office. They also garnered among the highest favorability numbers in the survey.

Thirty percent of the supporters of Peltola, the first Alaska Native elected to Congress, pointed to her character as their main reason for choosing her, compared with just 15% for her opponent, Dan Sullivan. Even so, she is still narrowly trailing him by 2 percentage points.

Alaska voter, supporting Democratic candidate Mary Peltola: “I feel like she has more Alaskan values and represents Alaskans’ interests.” — Woman, 50s, prefers Democratic Senate control

Alaska voter, supporting Peltola: “She does things for Alaska.” — Man, 60s, prefers Republican Senate control

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In North Carolina, a state that Trump carried in each of the last three presidential elections, the poll found a 7-percentage-point lead for Cooper, the state’s former governor. Thirty-six percent of Cooper’s supporters pointed to his character as their reason for supporting him — the highest share of any candidate in the survey — while just 2% of his supporters cited dislike of Michael Whatley, the Republican nominee, as their main motivation.

Cooper, however, is outperforming preference for Democratic Senate control by just 1 percentage point. His lead may be a reflection of the state’s broader political environment being relatively beneficial to Democrats, as well as voters’ unfamiliarity with Whatley, whom more than 40% of likely voters had not heard of.

N.C. voter, supporting Democratic candidate Roy Cooper: “He listens to and supports the community.” — Woman, 30s, prefers Democratic Senate control

N.C. voter, supporting Cooper: “Experience as governor.” — Man, 40s, prefers Republican Senate control

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About a third of Collins’ supporters cited her character as their reason for backing her — nearly 20 percentage points higher than the share of voters who said the same about the next-closest Republican nominee, Ashley Hinson of Iowa.

But a quarter of Collins’ supporters said they were motivated by dislike of Platner. The candidate chosen to replace Platner may be well positioned against Collins, given that the poll showed that Platner was leading the race before his exit. But Collins is seen as effective in bringing money and resources to the state and is not viewed as too extreme by most voters, according to the poll.

Maine voter, supporting Republican candidate Susan Collins: “Consistency, reliability and trustworthiness.” — Man, 40s, prefers Republican Senate control

Maine voter, supporting Collins: “She has a lot of influence now, and I think she’s done a good job.” — Woman, 90s, prefers Democratic Senate control

Candidates Whose Support Is More About Their Policies

For Sullivan and Platner, their backers were more likely to cite policy positions, rather than character, as the motivation behind their support.

One-third of voters supporting Sullivan said policy was their primary reason for backing him, the highest share of any candidate in the surveys and the single biggest factor contributing to his support. The share of Peltola’s supporters that was tied to policy was not far behind, at 23%, but still ran second to character.

Alaska voter, supporting Democratic candidate Mary Peltola: “She wants to keep people from stock trading on the floor so that senators and representatives couldn’t do stock trades.” — Woman, 60s, prefers Republican Senate control

Alaska voter, supporting Republican candidate Dan Sullivan: “He pays attention to our veterans, supports immigration laws and will stand behind the development of the natural gas line.” — Man, 50s, prefers Republican Senate control

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In Maine, roughly a quarter of supporters for both Platner and Collins cited their preferred candidate’s policy positions as their reason for voting for them. That was the top reason listed for Platner, but it was almost 10 percentage points behind the most cited reason for support of Collins: her character.

Platner was the only candidate in these polls to have a notable share of supporters cite change as their rationale, suggesting that a meaningful portion of his coalition was either looking to move on from Collins’ nearly 30-year Senate tenure or was motivated by dissatisfaction with the current Democratic establishment, rather than direct support of his platform or his character.

Maine voter, supporting Republican candidate Susan Collins: “Susan Collins is more of a moderate candidate and can break with her party when needed.” — Man, 40s, prefers Democratic Senate control

Maine voter, supporting Democratic candidate Graham Platner: “It’s time for a change, and Susan Collins lost me with Brett Kavanaugh.” — Man, 70s, prefers Democratic Senate control

Maine voter, supporting Collins: “Because she is not a socialist and doesn’t push that agenda.” — Woman, 50s, prefers Republican Senate control

Candidates Whose Support Is More About Dislike Of Their Opponent

The closest of the six races that were polled was in Texas, where James Talarico and Ken Paxton were tied, even as voters were 6 percentage points more likely to prefer that Republicans retain control in the Senate.

That difference is being driven, in part, by deep dislike for Paxton, whose personal controversies — including his wife’s decision to file for divorce on “biblical grounds” and past corruption charges — have made headlines in the state for years. Paxton was the least popular candidate across the six states polled, with voters more likely to have an unfavorable than a favorable view of him by more than 10 percentage points.

In total, 29% of Talarico’s supporters specifically listed something negative about Paxton as the main driver of their support for the Texas Democrat, with a vast majority of this group pointing specifically to concerns about Paxton’s character.

Even among Republicans, nearly a quarter said the scandals surrounding Paxton meant they could not support him or they were questioning their support.

To be sure, an equally large swath of Paxton’s supporters drew on dislike of Talarico as their main reason for support. Talarico has been tagged as too liberal and out of touch by Republicans. But the 39% of Talarico’s supporters who noted a positive reason for backing him, compared with the 34% of Paxton’s supporters who said the same, may be providing enough of a boost to make the race even.

Texas voter, supporting Republican candidate Ken Paxton: “James Talarico is a heretic. He’s a liar. He’s a snoozer. He talks a good game, but there’s no truth at all.” — Woman, 60s, prefers Republican Senate control

Texas voter, supporting Paxton: “Probably because he’s a Republican.” — Man, 60s, prefers Republican Senate control

Texas voter, supporting Democratic candidate James Talarico: “Untrustworthiness and inconsistency. Ken Paxton is self-serving, I believe.” — Woman, 40s, unsure whom she prefers for Senate control

Texas voter, supporting Talarico: “He’s the candidate besides Ken Paxton.” — Man, 40s, prefers Republican Senate control

Candidates Whose Support Is More About Party Allegiances

The polls were intended to get a sense of what was driving the races five months out from the general election, and in some states the findings were that the candidates were not widely known. In those circumstances, many voters default to voting based on party loyalty.

Whatley, the Republican candidate in North Carolina, was the least-known Senate candidate across the six states. The poll found that dislike of Cooper and support for the party were effectively tied as the top reasons for his support.

In Iowa more so than any other state, neither candidate was especially well known: 25% of voters there said they had not heard of Hinson, the Republican nominee, or said they could not give an opinion of her. Thirty-five percent said the same about Josh Turek, the Democrat.

Republicans have seized on that opportunity. Republican-aligned super political action committees have dumped millions of dollars into the state to support Hinson, who has aligned herself closely with Trump. The top reason for her support — cited by nearly one-third of her backers — was purely to support the Republican Party.

Across the six states, Turek, a self-described “prairie populist,” was the Democrat with the most supporters who said they were backing him because of support for the party, though that reason still came in second to positive views of his policies.

The poll found that Hinson had a 2-percentage-point edge, while voters preferred Republican control of the Senate by 5 percentage points, showing that candidate quality may still be playing a role.

Fourteen percent of Turek’s supporters said they were backing him because they had a negative view of Hinson’s character, compared with just 5% of Hinson’s supporters who said the same about Turek.

Iowa voter, supporting Democratic candidate Josh Turek: “I feel that the Republican Party has lost its way.” — Man, 40s, prefers Democratic Senate control

Iowa voter, supporting Turek: “I don’t trust a thing that Hinson does.” — Man, 70s, prefers Democratic Senate control

Iowa voter, supporting Republican candidate Ashley Hinson: “I’m never going to vote for a Democrat again in my life.” — Man, 40s, prefers Republican Senate control

Iowa voter, supporting Hinson: “Because everything Josh Turek says is a lie.” — Man, 40s, prefers Republican Senate control

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Results of New York Times/Siena polls of 3,659 likely voters in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas conducted June 15-29. Respondents in each state were asked to describe in their own words “the main reason” they were supporting a Senate candidate, if they had said earlier in the poll that they were voting for or leaning toward voting for that candidate in November. The responses displayed have been lightly edited.

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This article originally appeared in The New York Times.

By Caroline Soler/Ruth Igielnik/Christine Zhang/Michael A. McCoy

c.2026 The New York Times Company