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Over the last half-century or so, California has had six elections for governor when the office was being vacated.

Understandably, such incumbent-free elections to run the nation’s most populous and economically powerful state have drawn serious candidates, mostly holders of other high-profile offices who declared themselves as soon as decorum would allow.

When, for example, Republican Ronald Reagan’s two terms as governor were ending in 1974, the Democratic secretary of state, Jerry Brown, narrowly defeated the Republican state controller, Houston Flournoy.

This bit of political history is offered because the end of Gavin Newsom’s governorship is approaching rapidly. In scarcely a year, California voters will choose a new governor. The June 2 primary, which will determine the two finalists, is just eight months away.

Yet the field of would-be governors remains very unsettled.

For months voters, political media and potential campaign financiers waited for former Vice President Kamala Harris to decide whether, after losing the presidency to Donald Trump, she would seek the governorship.

Harris finally said no, with a rather odd remark: “I don’t want to go back in the system. I think it’s broken.” She may have been referring to national politics, but since the issue was California’s governorship, she could also have been implying the state was broken after many years of dominance by her Democratic Party.

Harris’ decision, whatever her motives, did not settle the question about who will be running for governor next year. There are declared candidates, of course, but none scores very high in preliminary polling.

Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis had been one of the first to declare her candidacy but shortly after Harris announced her decision, Kounalakis dropped out, opting instead to run for state treasurer.

Waiting for Padilla, Caruso to Decide

With those two out of the picture, former Congresswoman Katie Porter became the frontrunner, more or less by default, but with underwhelming support — 17% in a poll by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies, released in late August. Her standing may have reflected nothing more than name recognition from her losing campaign for U.S. senator last year.

This week Toni Atkins, former president pro tem of the state Senate, also ended her campaign, saying she could see no pathway to victory. A few other Democrats remain, most notably former Biden administration official and state Attorney General Xavier Becerra and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa.

Mostly, however, we are seeing just preliminary skirmishing among those still in the race, because we’re still waiting to see who else might run.

After the departure of Harris and Kounalakis, another name popped up in media speculation: U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla.

It’s difficult to understand why Padilla, who holds one of the nation’s most coveted political offices and could remain in the Senate for the rest of his life, would want to seek no more than eight years as governor.

Does he really want to deal with California’s plethora of infinitely difficult, unresolved issues, such as homelessness, housing shortages, water supply uncertainty, economic stagnation and, perhaps trickiest of all, a chronic multibillion-dollar budget deficit?

Were Padilla to give up his Senate seat for the governorship, as Republican Pete Wilson did in 1990, the only logical motive would be civic duty — he thinks California needs him to weather its crises.

Meanwhile, we’re waiting for another potential candidate, Rick Caruso, to also declare intentions. The very wealthy Los Angeles businessman ran a credible but unsuccessful race for mayor of his city after switching his party identification from Republican to Democrat and could draw support from moderate voters and interest groups of both parties. He says he’s weighing a race.

This article was originally published on CalMatters and was republished under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives license.