This drama is guaranteed to serve up frayed nerves, rapid heartbeats, and fiery rhetoric Tuesday at the Fresno County Board of Supervisors.

It already has been a long and winding road of detours and potholes in the future of the county’s 40-year-old half-cent transportation tax.

Yet again, there is another stop sign for backers of the Better Roads Safe Streets initiative to navigate. This week, Garry Bredefeld, chair of the supervisors, revealed to GV Wire’s Edward Smith how a board majority could halt the sales tax extension proposal in its tracks.

Bredefeld believes he was disrespected and had his ideas about the tax’s main components summarily dismissed by progressive community activists with an outsized voice in its writing. Thus he would like nothing more than to see Better Roads Safe Streets become Tulare Street roadkill.

Bredefeld’s Gambit

Bredefeld’s gambit is this: If he can convince two other supervisors to order a study on the tax’s impacts on the county, that would make the initiative miss the Aug. 7 deadline for the November ballot. The earliest it then could go to voters would be 2028.

I believe it would be best for supervisors to approve the initiative’s petition and let the voters decide. But I’m not an elected official, nor am I an elected official keeping a close eye on my immediate and long-term political future.

The progressive activists organized by former Fresno Mayor Ashley Swearengin used their muscle and wiles to freeze out conservative voices in writing the proposed replacement for Measure C. But they also made a huge mistake in underestimating the levers held by the supervisors in the get-to-the-ballot process.

Much as Mitch McConnell used the U.S. Senate rules to foil Democratic Party interests time and again, Bredefeld figured out a way to make Better Roads Safe Streets potentially pay the ultimate price for its tactics.

Handicapping the Vote

So, how might Tuesday’s vote stack up?

Pencil in rocked-ribbed conservatives Bredefeld and retiring supervisor Buddy Mendes to back the unneeded but politically useful study. Count on Luis Chavez, whose political leanings are those of a Blue Dog Democrat, to oppose it.

That leaves supervisors Brian Pacheco, a moderate, and MAGA conservative Nathan Magsig — both of whom are running for the state Legislature.

Pacheco’s position is complicated. Bredefeld has knowingly or unknowingly put him in a vice.

If Pacheco votes for the study, the campaign of his opponent for the 27th Assembly seat, Republican Mike Murphy of Merced, will saturate voters with ads stating that Pacheco is against better roads. And, if Pacheco says no to the study, his opponent will let voters know that the supervisor voted for a $7 billion tax.

Voter sentiment in California — even among Democrats — has turned against taxes. In one example of this swing, a Public Policy Institute of California poll found that “55% of Californians want to pay lower taxes.”

That brings us to Magsig, who is virtually assured of winning election to the deeply red state Senate District 12 seat. Thus, he’s the free agent in this showdown.

As written, the proposal benefits his hometown of Clovis as it helps fund transit. In addition, many of that city’s top officials, including conservatives, are backing the measure. Would he betray them before heading off to Sacramento? Or will he decide the measure is flawed, pours too much money into transit at the expense of roads, and side with Team Bredefeld?

Stay tuned for Tuesday’s outcome. And know that the whatever the verdict, the fight between right and left will intensify in Fresno.