The last Emerson College poll before Tuesday’s primary shows Xavier Becerra leading in the race for California governor, followed by fellow Democrat Tom Steyer and Republican Steve Hilton.

“Xavier Becerra maintains frontrunner status in the final Emerson poll ahead of Tuesday’s primary, while Tom Steyer and Steve Hilton both have paths to advance to the November general election,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement accompanying the poll’s release Saturday.

“If Chad Bianco’s support erodes by Election Day, Hilton is positioned to benefit. Steyer’s path to the runoff depends on mobilizing younger voters while limiting further gains by Becerra, whose growing coalition could siphon support from Steyer.”

Since Emerson’s mid-May poll, Becerra (up 9 percentage points), Steyer (up 5 points), and Hilton (up 4 points) have picked up steam. The new poll, conducted May 27-28, indicated that Democrats Katie Porter and Matt Mahan are losing support.

Said Kimball: “Becerra has built support among key Democratic constituencies, at 44% among Democrats, 36% among Hispanics and 36% among women, while Hilton has consolidated a majority of the Republican vote with 59%, though 29% support Bianco. Steyer is the favorite among voters under 30 at 36%, and remains competitive among white voters at 25%.”

The poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, showed Becerra at 28%. Steyer followed at 22%, and Hilton had 21%. Bianco, the Republican sheriff of Riverside County, pulled 12%. All the other candidates polled at 5% or less.

Light Turnout Thus Far, Dems Clinging to Ballots

CalMatters reported Monday that only 15.10% of voters had turned in their ballots through Sunday. However, citing the voter data firm Political Data Inc., CalMatters reported that 19% of Republicans had submitted their ballots.

There is speculation that Democrats are waiting until Tuesday to vote in a manner that is most strategically beneficial to their party.