The heavy bombardment of television ads prove what the experts say — races for two Central Valley congressional district are close. Real close.

Seemingly, every commercial break for the local news, football or “Jeopardy!” airs messages supporting or opposing David Valadao, Rudy Salas, John Duarte, and Adam Gray.

The ubiquitous ads are paid for by the candidates’ campaigns as well as millions of dollars poured in by third-party groups.

Incumbent Valadao, R-Hanford, faces the challenge of Rudy Salas, D-Bakersfield in Congressional District 22 — including parts of Bakersfield, Tulare, and Hanford.

Gray, D-Merced, is challenging Duarte, R-Modesto in Congressional District 13 — stretching from Modesto to western Fresno County, including Merced and Madera.

Expert: ‘Most Competitive Races’

Several ratings prognosticators call both races a toss-up, including Cook Political Report and 270 to Win.

“These are two of the most competitive races in the country and they are going to be a central part of either party’s path to the majority,” said Erin Covey, house editor with the Cook Political Report.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball says CA-13 is a toss-up and just changed CA-22 from toss-up to leans Republican.

“Valadao has been able to squeak out enough crossover support to thread the needle (for the most part) in recent years, and it’s also possible that the Democratic presidential margin will narrow a bit in this very heavily working-class and Latino Central Valley district,” analysts Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman wrote.

Both are rematches from 2022, pitting a sitting congressmember against a former member of the California Assembly. Valadao and Duarte won, despite representing Democratic districts — plus-13 Democrat in CA-22, and plus-11 Democrat in CA-13. Both districts strongly supported President Joe Biden in 2020 and are likely to have strong showings for Kamala Harris this year.

In the 2022 election, Duarte won by 0.4 points — 564 votes, the second-closest race of the year. Valadao won by three points — 3,132 votes.

Valadao-Salas Sides Talk Strategy

The strategy in the home stretch, Valadao campaign consultant Robert Jones says, is to continue messaging.

“Talk to as many voters as we can through as many mediums as possible,” Jones said.

Jones acknowledges that voters “are tired” of the constant ads through TV, digital, and mailers.

“That’s the best way to talk to the most people we can. So our goal is to get David all over the district and then communicate with everybody else we can’t meet in person,” he said.

The Salas campaign said they are working on turnout.

“We do that by engaging with voters directly — in person and door-to-door,” said Salas through his campaign manager, Kyle Buda. The Salas campaign will also use TV, radio, and phones.

Although he would not share specifics, Jones said the campaign’s internal polling shows a close race. The campaign, though, does not plan to make any changes with its messaging. They will continue with a mix of pro-Valadao and anti-Salas ads.

“We want to give people the kind of case on both sides. This is why you should not be voting for Rudy Salas. This is why you should be voting for David Valadao,” Jones said.

Salas said his polling shows his side is ahead.

“But this will be a very close race, just as it always is in this district. I’m confident that if we see high voter turnout we will be successful,” Salas said.

Campaigning door-to-door is not traditionally a strategy for congressional districts large in area. Jones said Valadao plans to meet voters in group settings, like at high school football games.

Salas said listening to voters is a working strategy.

“We’re going to keep our head down, working hard and educate and mobilize voters in every corner of this district,” Salas said.

Jones said the more constant the message, the likelier it is to turn out voters for his side.

Gray on Messaging

Gray said he plans to continue his messaging by traditional means. He doesn’t plan to change things up now.

“That’s the message. I have a record and John has a record,” Gray said.

Gray said his polling shows him ahead, but he responded with the often-heard line at election time: “The only poll that matters is Election Day.”

“We’re just working tirelessly with our volunteers and others to knock on this many doors between now and then, make as many phone calls, talk to as many voters, and then, of course, finish out our media program on television and ask people for their vote,” Gray said.

What the Analysts Say

Covey with the Cook Political Report said Valadao and Duarte are the most vulnerable Republicans in the nation.

“Duarte is a freshman … and he’s less defined than Valadao, so that makes him a little bit more vulnerable and it makes it easier for Democrats to oust him. The polling that I have seen from both races shows it really is down to the wire,” Covey said.

Both Covey and Lakshya Jain, CEO of election analyzer Split Ticket, have examined internal polling data, showing how close the races are.

Covey expects higher turnout from 2022, mainly because it is a presidential eleciton. That could benefit Democrats.

“Having Harris at the top of the ticket versus Biden has energized Democratic voters across the country and these districts included,” Covey said. More so, Covey added, since polling showed Biden was down.

However, Covey noted a “shift to the right” among Hispanic voters, which could aid Republicans.

Covey said Valadao will outperform Trump, in part because the congressmember distinguished himself from being just a party loyalist. Valadao, just weeks after rejoining Congress in 2021, voted to impeach Trump.

“He’s a very, very strong incumbent. And the fact that it’s close is because the California Democrats are running potentially their strongest challenger,” Jain said of Valadao.

Jones, the Valadao strategist, said their goal is to show voters “how he’s been bipartisan and how he’s reached across the aisle. And he’s not a typical Republican.”

Salas is taking a similar approach, highlighting how he stood up to his own party.

By running for a second consecutive election, Gray and Salas benefit from name identification and fundraising, Covey said.

Split Ticket has the Duarte-Gray race leaning slightly Democrat.

“Gray is basically what you get when you have a pretty generic Republican in office running in a very, very blue seat. And that’s really why that race, we think it’s likely to be slightly better for Democrats overall,” Jain said.

As always, it comes down to turnout.

“If Kamala Harris struggles with turnout this time around, that’s the type of thing that could meaningfully hurt these challengers for the Democrats in that seat,” Jain said.

The two Democratic challengers are also posting better financial numbers.

“Republicans are very concerned about them, from what I know,” Jain said about the CA-13 race.

Turnout

Data collected by PDI shows CA-22 voters have returned 11% of ballots — with a 43% to 39% split favoring Democrats.

In CA-13, 12% of voters have returned ballots, with a 44% to 38% Democratic split.

Both figures are through Oct. 23.

Outside Spending

Open Secrets reports more than $16 million in outside spending in the Duarte-Gray contest. The top spenders — Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), $4.8 million, and House Majority PAC, $3.7 million supporting Gray; and Congressional Leadership Fund, $2.8 million, and National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), $2.7 million, supporting Duarte.

In the Valadao-Salas race, Open Secrets reports $18.5 million in spending. Five different groups have spent more than $1 million, with Valadao-supporting Congressional Leadership Fund spending $6.2 million.