If Gov. Gavin Newsom loses the upcoming recall, Democrats who fail to cast ballots will bear the blame.
That’s the top takeaway from a CBS News/YouGov poll released Sunday indicating that Newsom’s fate will rest with Democratic Party turnout.
Among registered voters, Newsom would fend off the recall by a 54-46% margin, according to the poll conducted Aug. 6-12.
However, only 52% of likely voters say they oppose the recall. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Dems Less Motivated to Vote
The poll documents the so-called enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats. Seventy-eight percent of Republicans said they would definitely vote compared to 73% of Dems. In addition, 72% of Republicans reported they were “very motivated to vote” compared to 61% of Democrats.
Newsom himself cited the enthusiasm gap in a recent interview with The Washington Post.
“Democrats up and down the state haven’t taken this seriously, whereas Republicans have,” Newsom told The Post. “Republicans see this as a historic opportunity.”
The top reasons cited by recall backers for ousting Newsom in the CBS News/YouGov poll:
- Oppose Newsom and the job he’s doing (96%)
- Oppose the Democratic Party (64%)
- Elect a Republican governor (60%)
- Shake things up (48%)
Those opposing the recall offered these explanations:
- Shouldn’t be a recall (91%)
- Support Newsom and the job he’s doing (80%)
- Stop a Republican from becoming governor (78%)
- Support Democratic Party (65%)
Newsom had a 57% approval rating among poll respondents. His best marks were for his handling of the economy and wildfires. But a majority of voters oppose his handling of crime and homelessness.