If Gov. Gavin Newsom loses the upcoming recall, Democrats who fail to cast ballots will bear the blame.

That’s the top takeaway from a CBS News/YouGov poll released Sunday indicating that Newsom’s fate will rest with Democratic Party turnout.

Among registered voters, Newsom would fend off the recall by a 54-46% margin, according to the poll conducted Aug. 6-12.

However, only 52% of likely voters say they oppose the recall. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Dems Less Motivated to Vote

The poll documents the so-called enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats. Seventy-eight percent of Republicans said they would definitely vote compared to 73% of Dems. In addition, 72% of Republicans reported they were “very motivated to vote” compared to 61% of Democrats.

Newsom himself cited the enthusiasm gap in a recent interview with The Washington Post.

“Democrats up and down the state haven’t taken this seriously, whereas Republicans have,” Newsom told The Post. “Republicans see this as a historic opportunity.”

The top reasons cited by recall backers for ousting Newsom in the CBS News/YouGov poll:

• Oppose Newsom and the job he’s doing (96%)
• Oppose the Democratic Party (64%)
• Elect a Republican governor (60%)
• Shake things up (48%)

Those opposing the recall offered these explanations:

• Shouldn’t be a recall (91%)
• Support Newsom and the job he’s doing (80%)
• Stop a Republican from becoming governor (78%)
• Support Democratic Party (65%)

Newsom had a 57% approval rating among poll respondents. His best marks were for his handling of the economy and wildfires. But a majority of voters oppose his handling of crime and homelessness.