Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility
Trump Backs Out of Iran Nuclear Deal. What's Next?
The-Conversation
By The Conversation
Published 6 years ago on
May 9, 2018

Share

Thanks to Donald Trump, the hard-won deal that set up a process to end Iran’s nuclear weapons programme is on its deathbed. After weeks of entreaties and visits from his counterparts in the other states that signed the accord, Trump has announced that the US will be withdrawing from it and reimposing the sanctions the deal lifted. That makes it hard to see how the deal will survive.
Given Trump has spent years referring to this as “the worst deal ever,” perhaps his decision to back out is less than surprising — but that doesn’t mean it isn’t shocking.

Portrait of Lancaster University international relations lecturer Simon Mabon
Opinion
Simon Mabon
To be sure, there are real problems with the deal. Struck in 2015 between Iran and the P5+1 powers — the US, the UK, Russia, China, France, and Germany — it fails to address longer-term concerns about the nuclear programme (the Iranian government is renowned for playing a long game) and does not limit the country’s ballistic missile capability. Perhaps the biggest criticism, though, concerns Iran’s behaviour in the Middle East, which has not been curtailed.
As the British foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, recently said on Fox & Friends, a right-wing talk show Trump is known to watch: “Look, Iran is behaving badly, has a tendency to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles. We’ve got to stop that. We’ve got to push back on what Iran is doing in the region. We’ve got to be tougher.” But Johnson also urged the US not to “throw the baby out with the bathwater”.
It seems that plea, and those of other world leaders, fell on deaf ears. So what does it all mean? First, Trump’s decision to effectively scrap deal plays into the hands of Saudi Arabia and Israel. It will also inflame already livid tensions across the Middle East, pouring fuel onto the fires of conflict from Syria to Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, and beyond.

Taking Sides

In recent years, belligerents in the Middle East’s various conflicts have generally fallen into two separate camps. On the one hand is a pro-Iranian camp that is comprised of the Syrian government, the Iraqi government, Hezbollah and a range of non-state actors; on the other is an anti-Iranian camp, comprised primarily of Saudi Arabia, Israel, Egypt, Bahrain and the UAE. Both camps are seizing opportunities to recalibrate the regional order, and as they try to set and push boundaries in their favour, they raise the chances of error, miscalculation and catastrophe.
But while Iranian-Saudi rivalry has played a central role in shaping the nature of the contemporary Middle East, so have Iran’s rivalries with two other powers: Israel — with whom Saudi Arabia is seeking a rapprochement of sorts — and the US.
Debate about the nuclear deal is as much about these different camps as it is about the deal itself. Washington, Riyadh and Jerusalem have long been concerned about the development of an Iranian nuclear weapon, yet the more short-term concern is about Tehran’s behaviour across Syria, Bahrain, Iraq and Lebanon, where it capitalises on schisms within and across state borders. Iran has long demonstrated an excellent ability to exploit and manipulate such divisions. To see that ability in action, one only has to look at events in Iraq, Lebanon and Syria – leaving aside allegations of nefarious involvement in Bahrain, where it’s accused of backing anti-government groups, and Yemen, where Saudi Arabia is waging a massive military campaign against forces it claims are Iranian proxies.
Few want to see Iran further indulge what one US official called its “propensity for mischief”, and escalating tensions across already deeply divided societies risk adding to the already catastrophic loss of human life. So long as Iran feels emboldened or mandated to act up, the nightmarish conflicts in Syria and Yemen will be even more difficult to resolve.
But perhaps the biggest concern in all this is the Israeli response.

Keeping the Lid On

Iran has sought to ameliorate its strategic concerns by pushing forward geopolitically, away from its sovereign borders. Getting influence over territory is a key strategic goal. But in doing this, Iran is directly inserting itself into Israeli security calculations.
Ever since the revolution of 1979, Israel has long viewed the Islamic Republic of Iran with great trepidation. As concerns about Iranian nuclear aspirations increased, so too did the rhetoric from Israeli leaders condemning Tehran’s actions. No one who has heard it will forget the March 2012 speech where Benjamin Netanyahu said: “If it walks like a duck, if it talks like a duck, then what is it? That’s right, it’s a duck. But this is a nuclear duck.” More recently, Israel produced a dossier that sought to demonstrate that Iran had lied during the negotiations that produced the deal.
In addition, Israel has a precedent of striking against what it perceives to be a serious threat to its survival. Take the strike on Iraq’s Osirak reactor in 1981, or the strike against a suspected Syrian nuclear facility in 2007. If the deal collapses and Iran restarts its nuclear programme, then similar unannounced attacks on suspected nuclear sites are a strong possibility.
So where do things stand as of now? If the deal breaks down in full, tensions across the Middle East could escalate to a dangerous level, as players on all sides rush to recalibrate their positions. The various fronts in Syria will only become more deadly as Iran doubles down to preserve its influence over territory there — a corridor of control that has been called a “land bridge to the Mediterranean”, and by extension, to Israel.
The ConversationUltimately, Trump has missed the point of his counterparts’ pleas to keep the deal in place. This isn’t about whether or not Iran has leeway to build a nuclear weapon; it’s about keeping tensions across the Middle East in check, and preventing a catastrophic new war. Diplomats the world over are in for some sleepless nights.
Simon Mabon, Lecturer in International Relations, Lancaster University
This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

DON'T MISS

Fresno County Road Rage Incident Leads to Violent Assault, High-Speed Chase

DON'T MISS

When to Expect Fresno County Election Results

DON'T MISS

Israeli Strikes Target Syria for a Second Day in a Row

DON'T MISS

Trump Snaps at Reporter When Asked About Abortion: ‘Stop Talking About That’

DON'T MISS

Soria Stumps Outside Polling Place. Was it Legal?

DON'T MISS

These California Toss-Ups May Decide Which Party Controls Congress

DON'T MISS

What We’ll Know and When We’ll Know It: A Guide to Election Night

DON'T MISS

Democratic Mayors in San Francisco and Oakland Fight to Keep Their Jobs on Election Day

DON'T MISS

These 8 Counties Could Hint at Where the Election Is Headed

DON'T MISS

Israel’s Netanyahu Dismisses Defense Minister in Surprise Announcement

UP NEXT

Let’s Keep Innovative Partnerships Crucial to Combating Climate Change: Fresno Dairy Manager

UP NEXT

No Matter the Outcome, We Are the True Losers of This Election

UP NEXT

California’s Transition Off Carbon Fuels Could Be a Monumental Disaster

UP NEXT

Don’t Let Liberal Purity Elect Trump

UP NEXT

Newsom Provides Welfare to the Wealthy, Skimps on Anti-Homelessness Programs

UP NEXT

Independent Gen Zers Will Decide Elections From Now On

UP NEXT

America’s Political Divide Shifts from Economics to Education: Fareed Zakaria

UP NEXT

Fresno Unified Reform Is a Must. Force It With a ‘No’ on Measure H.

UP NEXT

Trump’s Biggest Con: Pretending to Support American Workers

UP NEXT

Why Newsom Wants Taxpayers to Waste Millions on Big Hollywood Subsidies

Trump Snaps at Reporter When Asked About Abortion: ‘Stop Talking About That’

3 hours ago

Soria Stumps Outside Polling Place. Was it Legal?

3 hours ago

These California Toss-Ups May Decide Which Party Controls Congress

3 hours ago

What We’ll Know and When We’ll Know It: A Guide to Election Night

4 hours ago

Democratic Mayors in San Francisco and Oakland Fight to Keep Their Jobs on Election Day

4 hours ago

These 8 Counties Could Hint at Where the Election Is Headed

4 hours ago

Israel’s Netanyahu Dismisses Defense Minister in Surprise Announcement

5 hours ago

Cryptocurrency Markets, Promoted by Trump, Brace for Election Volatility

5 hours ago

Trump, Vance and Allies Hurl Insults at Women as Race Ends

5 hours ago

NFL Trade Deadline: Lions Get Za’Darius Smith, Cowboys Add Jonathan Mingo

6 hours ago

Fresno County Road Rage Incident Leads to Violent Assault, High-Speed Chase

A road rage incident turned violent when a driver assaulted another motorist with a weapon before fleeing the scene, the California Highway ...

56 mins ago

A road rage incident in Fresno County escalated into a violent assault and a high-speed pursuit, resulting in the suspect's arrest and vehicle impoundment. (CHP)
56 mins ago

Fresno County Road Rage Incident Leads to Violent Assault, High-Speed Chase

1 hour ago

When to Expect Fresno County Election Results

The wreckage left by Israeli airstrikes in Dahieh, a predominantly Shiite suburb of south Beirut, Lebanon, on Tuesday, Nov. 5 2024. (Daniel Berehulak /The New York Times)
2 hours ago

Israeli Strikes Target Syria for a Second Day in a Row

Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump speaks as former first lady Melania Trump listens after they voted on Election Day at the Morton and Barbara Mandel Recreation Center, Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024, in Palm Beach, Fla. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
3 hours ago

Trump Snaps at Reporter When Asked About Abortion: ‘Stop Talking About That’

3 hours ago

Soria Stumps Outside Polling Place. Was it Legal?

3 hours ago

These California Toss-Ups May Decide Which Party Controls Congress

Residents vote early in Dearborn, Mich., Nov. 3, 2024. Like in 2020, the vote count will still feature “blue mirages” or “red mirages,” in which one candidate builds a fleeting lead simply because mail or Election Day ballots are counted first. (Nick Hagen/The New York Times)
4 hours ago

What We’ll Know and When We’ll Know It: A Guide to Election Night

4 hours ago

Democratic Mayors in San Francisco and Oakland Fight to Keep Their Jobs on Election Day

Search

Send this to a friend