Donald Trump’s lead in the 2024 presidential race has widened after President Joe Biden’s fumbling debate performance last week, as concerns that Biden is too old to govern effectively rose to new heights among Democrats and independent voters, a new poll from The New York Times and Siena College showed.

Trump now leads Biden 49% to 43% among likely voters nationally, a 3-point swing toward the Republican from just a week earlier, before the debate. It is the largest lead Trump has recorded in a Times/Siena poll since 2015. Trump leads by even more among registered voters, 49% to 41%.

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Doubts about Biden’s age and acuity are widespread and growing. A majority of every demographic, geographic and ideological group in the poll — including Black voters and those who said they will still be voting for him — believe Biden, 81, is too old to be effective.

Overall, 74% of voters view him as too old for the job, up 5 percentage points since the debate. Concerns about Biden’s age have spiked 8 percentage points among Democrats in the week since the debate, to 59%. The share of independent voters who said they felt that way rose to 79%, nearly matching the Republican view of the president.

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The poll offers early empirical evidence of what many Democrats have feared: That Biden’s faltering debate performance has further imperiled his chances against Trump this fall. Some Democratic lawmakers and donors are raising questions about Biden’s fitness following his struggles to finish his thoughts or articulate a vision during the debate, and they are demanding that Biden prove for a skeptical public that he is capable of serving until he is 86.

Voters have some concern about Trump’s age, too, but far less than for Biden’s. After the debate, 42% of voters view Trump as too old for the job, an increase of 3 points from a week prior and one that was driven heavily by Democrats. Only 19% of voters said Trump was so old he was not capable of handling the job.

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This article originally appeared in The New York Times.

By Shane Goldmacher/Eric Lee
c.2024 The New York Times Company