One of Fresno Mayor Jerry Dyer’s top-of-the-list projects — the Southeast Development Area — returns to the spotlight in August.

The first stop is at the Fresno Planning Commission on Aug. 19. If Dyer’s amended plan and his administration’s revised environmental impacts and financial viability studies pass muster there, then the package goes to the Fresno City Council, possibly as early as Aug. 27.

If SEDA opponents repeat previous claims, you can expect so-called “facts” demonizing urban development and simultaneous claims that Fresno isn’t growing fast enough to justify expansion.

Transactional Politics Attracts Strange Bedfellows

People with long memories will note that former Fresno Mayor Ashley Swearengin — a staunch SEDA opponent — once sang the proposal’s praises. That’s OK, people have the right to change their minds, especially as circumstances dictate.

Those who pay attention to local politics will also note that Dyer stood with many SEDA objectors while trying to put the progressive community’s vision for a Fresno County transportation tax extension on the November ballot. That effort failed, much to Dyer’s and Swearengin’s chagrin.

If Dyer expects that loyalty to pay dividends with SEDA’s future at stake, he’d be mistaken. Much of Fresno politics is transactional, and strange bedfellows are common.

In fact, the zenith of local transactional politics was reached in the Better Roads Safe Streets campaign when former Tea Party member Steve Brandau stood side-by-side with the same progressive leaders he once characterized as “poverty pimps.”

That’s OK, too. Everyone has to make a living. However, there is a lesson here: Politicians most often say things from the part of the brain calculating a path to victory. Less often do they say and act according to what they truly believe.

Related Story: How to Decode the Minefield of California’s Tax Propositions

Better Roads Safe Streets Economic Report Makes a Case for SEDA

Remember the report produced by Fresno economist Joseph Penbera that made the case for Better Roads Better Streets?

In a twist of fate, that report fortifies Dyer’s case for SEDA.

It clearly states that “the Fresno metropolitan area is becoming more suburban” and “there is a shortage of housing units.” The report also notes that “regional population is growing even in the face of a decline in the state’s population.”

So, the progressives’ own hired gun has wiped out their argument that Fresno isn’t growing.

Let’s move on to the claim that SEDA will cause the closure of 11 schools in Fresno Unified, further weakening an already challenged district.

Fresno Unified has never verified that claim. Where it came from only SEDA opponents (and their imaginations) know.

Penbera’s report states that Fresno County has 34.5% fewer college graduates than the state average. Could SEDA give more young people access to the award-winning Clovis Unified and Sanger Unified school districts, leading to more college graduates?

And, wouldn’t expanded access to better schools attack the stunning statistic that Fresno County’s poverty rate is 1.5 times the state’s rate?

Clovis Unified Is a Growth Magnet

Hot off the press is a San Francisco Chronicle story calling attention to Clovis as one of California’s seven fastest-growing cities.

“They’ve grown by attracting families with better school districts, drawing workers with affordable housing and, in one case, by providing services and housing to wildfire refugees,” The Chronicle summarizes.

The story’s foundation is data from the California Department of Finance and interviews with people who moved to Clovis, Manteca, Irvine, Menifee, Roseville, Dublin, and Chico.

Clovis has grown by 35% since 2010, luring many new residents with homes that are a bargain compared to most other California communities.

But the No. 1 drawing card is schools.

“Clovis is one of the last places in California where you can buy an affordable house in a really great neighborhood with great schools,” said Bianca Thall, who moved from picturesque but over-the-top expensive St. Helena in Napa County.

Ah, but SEDA would be in Fresno, not Clovis, you say!

Next door to Clovis, in fact, and leveraging Clovis Unified to make Fresno more attractive. If you can’t beat them, join them, I say.

Decide SEDA on the Facts, Not Table Pounding

Opposition to SEDA should be based on facts: what the infrastructure would cost, the cost and availability of water, an accounting of environmental impacts, and whether it will benefit residents, and the regional economy.

My take is that Dyer’s south SEDA proposal is limited to less than 5,000 housing units and featuring plans for a research-and-tech hub is promising. As for the remainder of SEDA’s 9,000 acres, development there is decades away. There are too many obstacles.

Some of the opposition to SEDA is ginned up by candidates for city council races and school boards. They were looking for a wedge issue to drive voter turnout and thought SEDA was the ticket.

As for the future of Fresno Unified and Central Unified, whose school boards are on the record opposing SEDA, I have one word of advice: Compete.

Fresno Unified’s declining enrollment reflects the opinion of families. Increasing numbers don’t trust the district to educate their children and will do everything in their power to land elsewhere.

These upcoming SEDA hearings will be interesting.

As I learned long ago, when the facts are on your side, cite the facts. When logic is with you, cite logic. And when nothing is on your side, pound the table.

I expect a lot of table pounding from SEDA opponents in August.