Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility

West Bank Town Becomes ‘Big Prison’ as Israel Fences It In

21 hours ago

Trump Says He’s Willing to Let Migrant Farm Laborers Stay in US

22 hours ago

US Electric Vehicle Tax Breaks Will Expire on Sept. 30

2 days ago

Eyeing Arctic Dominance, Trump Bill Earmarks $8.6 Billion for US Coast Guard Icebreakers

2 days ago

Trump’s Sweeping Tax-Cut and Spending Bill Wins Congressional Approval

2 days ago

Americans Celebrate Their Independence With Record-Breaking Travel Numbers

2 days ago

US Supreme Court to Decide Legality of Transgender School Sports Bans

2 days ago

Nvidia Set to Become the World’s Most Valuable Company in History

2 days ago

Poll: 41% in US ‘Extremely Proud’ to Be American, Near Historic Low

2 days ago
Presidential Election Reveals Big Shift in California Voting Patterns. Will It Last?
dan_walters
By Dan Walters, CalMatters Commentary
Published 2 days ago on
July 3, 2025

Voters in 10 California counties that backed Biden against Trump in 2020 switched to Trump last year, and a new analysis of California’s vote indicates that the state saw the same dynamics as the nation as a whole. (Reuters//Evelyn Hockstein/File)

Share

Getting your Trinity Audio player ready...

This commentary was originally published by CalMatters. Sign up for their newsletters.

For the last eight months, ever since Donald Trump walloped Kamala Harris to reclaim the presidency, Democratic politicians, political interest groups and media pundits of all stripes have debated what happened and why.

By

CalMatters

Opinion

Deep dives into who voted, and sometimes why, have generally concluded that Harris lost decisive ground — compared to Joe Biden’s 2020 unseating of Trump — among younger male voters, especially Latinos and Blacks, and could not generate enough support among other demographic groups, such as women, to offset the losses.

“Overall, Harris performed six points worse among men than Biden did,” an extensive analysis by the Cook Political Report declared. “But that falloff was significantly more pronounced among Latino men (-12) and Black men (-7). Among white men without a college degree — a group that is traditionally the least friendly to Democrats — the slippage was least dramatic (-3).

“Despite the historic nature of her candidacy as the first woman of color to be nominated for president, women greeted that fact with more of a shrug,” Cook continued. “Harris’ vote share among women was basically the same as the share Biden got in 2020, except for a noticeable decline in support from Latinas. She also slightly underperformed Biden among Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) women (-4) and failed to do any better with Black women than Biden did.”

California, one of the nation’s bluest states, was not immune to the political hemorrhage that doomed Harris’ campaign, even though she is a Californian who was the state’s attorney general and a U.S. senator before becoming Biden’s vice president.

Voters in 10 California counties that had backed Biden against Trump in 2020 switched to Trump last year, and a new analysis of California’s vote indicates that the state saw the same dynamics as the nation as a whole.

Young Californians Begin Switch to GOP

“After years of declining shares of registered voters selecting Republican as their party registration, young Californians have begun to move towards the Republican party in recent election years while older Californians continue to move away,” the analysis by the Center for Inclusive Democracy at the University of Southern California declares.

“Young registered voters of all racial and ethnic groups saw notably larger shifts towards the Republican party compared to their older counterparts. Latino youth, however, saw particularly large growth in Republican party registration between presidential elections.”

It continued, “While Vice President Kamala Harris received 58.5% of all votes cast in California’s 2024 general election, President Donald Trump received 38.3% of the votes, the smallest difference in the vote by party (20.2 percentage points) since before 2008.”

While Republicans obviously gained ground in California last year — and did reasonably well in congressional and legislative elections — the new data generate two questions: Why did it happen, and what does it bode for the future?

“Inflation is probably the biggest thing,” Eric McGhee, a political analyst for the Public Policy Institute of California, said during a webinar to introduce the study.

That comports with the widespread belief that sharp increases in the cost of living during the Biden-Harris administration were a big factor in the pro-Trump shift, as younger voters felt the pinch of inflation more than their elders.

Make no mistake. California is still a very blue state. It’s highly unlikely that Republicans, who were once dominant themselves, would regain enough ground to again award the state’s electoral votes to a GOP presidential candidate in the foreseeable future.

However, were the rightward surge of young voters of color to continue, for whatever reason, as baby boomer Democrats exit the political stage, California politics could become a lot less predictable and a lot healthier.

Make Your Voice Heard

GV Wire encourages vigorous debate from people and organizations on local, state, and national issues. Submit your op-ed to bmcewen@gvwire.com for consideration.

This article was originally published on CalMatters and was republished under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives license.

RELATED TOPICS:

DON'T MISS

What Are Fresno Real Estate Experts Predicting for 2025 and Beyond?

DON'T MISS

First California EV Mandates Hit Automakers This Year. Most Are Not Even Close

DON'T MISS

Trump to Sign Tax-Cut and Spending Bill in July 4 Ceremony

DON'T MISS

Madre Fire Spurs Evacuations Across 3 Counties, Grows to More Than 70,000 Acres

DON'T MISS

Clovis, Sanger, Madera, and Bass Lake Will Light the Sky With Fireworks Shows Tonight

DON'T MISS

Oil Dips Ahead of Expected OPEC+ Output Increase

DON'T MISS

613 Killed at Gaza Aid Distribution Sites, Near Humanitarian Covoys, Says UN

DON'T MISS

Fresno County Authorities Investigating Suspicious Death of Transient Man

DON'T MISS

West Bank Town Becomes ‘Big Prison’ as Israel Fences It In

DON'T MISS

Israeli Military Kills 20 in Gaza as Trump Awaits Hamas Reply to Truce Proposal

DON'T MISS

Valley Crime Stoppers’ Most Wanted Person of the Day: Rachelle Maria Blanco

DON'T MISS

Russia Pounds Kyiv With Largest Drone Attack, Hours After Trump-Putin Call

UP NEXT

July 4th Quiz: Test Your Knowledge of the Founding Fathers

UP NEXT

Valadao, Costa Spar on What Passage of Trump’s Bill Means for Medicaid Recipients

UP NEXT

Over 100 Former Senior Officials Warn Against Planned Staff Cuts at US State Department

UP NEXT

Trump to Sign Bill on Friday at 5 p.m., White House Says

UP NEXT

Trump’s Sweeping Tax-Cut and Spending Bill Wins Congressional Approval

UP NEXT

Presidential Election Reveals Big Shift in California Voting Patterns. Will It Last?

UP NEXT

After Record Democratic Speech, House Republicans Begin Final Vote on Trump Tax-Cut Bill

UP NEXT

Jeffries Sets Record for Floor Speech Before Vote on Trump Tax Bill

UP NEXT

Trump Administration Will Focus on Fed Chair Replacement in Fall, Bessent Says

UP NEXT

US Imposes New Sanctions Targeting Iran Oil Trade, Hezbollah, Treasury Dept Says

Oil Dips Ahead of Expected OPEC+ Output Increase

21 hours ago

613 Killed at Gaza Aid Distribution Sites, Near Humanitarian Covoys, Says UN

21 hours ago

Fresno County Authorities Investigating Suspicious Death of Transient Man

21 hours ago

West Bank Town Becomes ‘Big Prison’ as Israel Fences It In

21 hours ago

Israeli Military Kills 20 in Gaza as Trump Awaits Hamas Reply to Truce Proposal

22 hours ago

Valley Crime Stoppers’ Most Wanted Person of the Day: Rachelle Maria Blanco

22 hours ago

Russia Pounds Kyiv With Largest Drone Attack, Hours After Trump-Putin Call

22 hours ago

Boxer Chavez Jr Expected to Be Deported to Mexico to Serve Sentence, Mexican President Says

22 hours ago

Markets’ 90-Day Tariff Pause Rollercoaster Nears an Uncertain End

22 hours ago

Trump Says He’s Willing to Let Migrant Farm Laborers Stay in US

22 hours ago

Trump to Sign Tax-Cut and Spending Bill in July 4 Ceremony

President Donald Trump is scheduled to sign a massive package of tax and spending cuts into law at a ceremony at the White House on Friday, ...

20 hours ago

President Donald Trump speaks during a press conference in the Roosevelt Room at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., May 12, 2025. (Reuters File)
20 hours ago

Trump to Sign Tax-Cut and Spending Bill in July 4 Ceremony

The Madre Fire burning near New Cuyama has scorched 70,801 acres as of Friday, July 4, 2025, afternoon, making it California’s largest wildfire of the year, with only 10% containment and multiple evacuation zones in place. (CalFire)
20 hours ago

Madre Fire Spurs Evacuations Across 3 Counties, Grows to More Than 70,000 Acres

21 hours ago

Clovis, Sanger, Madera, and Bass Lake Will Light the Sky With Fireworks Shows Tonight

A pumpjack operates at the Vermilion Energy site in Trigueres, France, June 14, 2024. (Reuters File)
21 hours ago

Oil Dips Ahead of Expected OPEC+ Output Increase

Palestinians gather to collect what remains of relief supplies from the distribution center of the U.S.-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, in Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip, June 5, 2025. (Reuters File)
21 hours ago

613 Killed at Gaza Aid Distribution Sites, Near Humanitarian Covoys, Says UN

Billy Wayne Sinisgalli, a 54-year-old transient known locally as Wayne, was found dead along a rural Fresno road Wednesday in what authorities are investigating as a suspicious death. (Fresno County SO)
21 hours ago

Fresno County Authorities Investigating Suspicious Death of Transient Man

Israel Builds a Fence Around the West Bank
21 hours ago

West Bank Town Becomes ‘Big Prison’ as Israel Fences It In

A view of the site of Thursday's Israeli strike that damaged and destroyed residential buildings, at Shati (Beach) refugee camp, in Gaza City, July 4, 2025. (Reuters/Mahmoud Issa)
22 hours ago

Israeli Military Kills 20 in Gaza as Trump Awaits Hamas Reply to Truce Proposal

Help continue the work that gets you the news that matters most.

Search

Send this to a friend