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After 6 1/2 years of denying any interest in running for president, Gavin Newsom has finally fessed up.

In a flurry of media interviews keyed to anti-Donald Trump demonstrations in Los Angeles and elsewhere, Newsom has acknowledged what everyone in and around national politics had already assumed — that he’s entertaining a White House bid.

Newsom Follows Time-Worn Political Playbook

The most explicit of several hints was published in the Wall Street Journal. Responding to a question about his presidential ambitions, Newsom said, “I’m not thinking about running, but it’s a path that I could see unfold.”

That’s in keeping with the time-worn playbook for politicians who look in the mirror and see a president staring back. They shun naked ambition and portray themselves as reluctantly offering to serve the nation in its moment of crisis, whatever that might be.

It was no coincidence that Newsom, in an address broadcast live by CNN, warned that Trump’s sweeping campaign to arrest undocumented immigrants was such a crisis, saying “other states are next.”

 “This is about all of us. This is about you,” Newsom said. “It’s time for all of us to stand up.”

Newsom uttered a similar theme in his Wall Street Journal interview. “I have a responsibility to combine passion with action, to stand tall and firm and defend the values that I hold dear, that I think the vast majority of Americans hold dear, and assert myself in this moral moment,” he said.

Trump’s Immigration Policies Provide Political Opportunity

Trump’s anti-immigrant drive is a political gift to Newsom, providing a springboard for him to fill a vacuum and claim leadership of the opposition to Trump. The Democratic Party has been unable, in the seven months since losing the White House, to curb its internal power struggles. Nor have political media anointed any of the potential candidates to succeed Trump as the frontrunner.

It would be fair to say that Newsom, who has been cultivating a national image ever since winning re-election in 2022, would probably start ahead of most would-be rivals for the Democratic nomination.

Whether he would finish ahead, and go on to win the presidency, is another matter. The road to the White House is long and winding, with plenty of opportunities to stumble — as the career of another Californian, Kamala Harris, attests.

California’s Problems Could Become Campaign Liabilities

Assuming that Newsom’s hints mean he’s a candidate, in the final 18 months of his governorship he’ll be juggling a day job and a side gig, which is likely to diminish his standing in California, which is mediocre at best.

A recent poll by UC-Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies found that by a 2-1 margin, California voters already believe Newsom is more focused on running for president than in fixing the state’s problems.

 “People kind of look at him as being very ambitious,” poll director Mark DiCamillo said about Newsom.

A Newsom presidential campaign would be something of a referendum on California. Its serious social and economic problems, which have not markedly improved during Newsom’s governorship, would be campaign fodder for Democratic rivals and, if he were to win the nomination, for the Republican candidate.

Video clips of California cities’ squalid encampments of the homeless, the smash-and-grab robberies and the sometimes violent demonstrations against Trump’s immigration sweeps would bolster the sour image that those in other states already have of California. Elect Newsom, his rivals would say, if you want the nation to emulate California.

Being a Californian was one of the burdens Harris could not overcome last year. An ad featuring her advocacy of giving conversion surgery to transgender prison inmates was, it’s widely believed, the single most effective spot of the campaign.

Saddle up. Win or lose, a Newsom campaign for the White House would be a bumpy ride.

This article was originally published on CalMatters and was republished under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives license.

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