It was with brash confidence that Gov. Gavin Newsom announced that by 2035, the only new cars and light trucks sold in California would be emission-free.

Critics, rightly, suggested that he couldn’t reshape consumer choice and entirely reorganize the state’s auto fleet through an executive order, or a phony codification of the order by the California Air Resources Board. An upcoming target is surely going to be missed.

Before 2035, the state is supposed to hit interim markers. When 2030 rolls around, 68% of all new-car sales are to be zero-emission vehicles. The benchmark for 2026 – which is actually this year because the ‘26 models will arrive at dealerships in the fall – is 35%.

If total sales of new cars and light trucks in 2026 equal 2025 sales of 1.8 million, a number that ticked up over the previous two years, then to reach the 35% threshold, dealers will have to sell 630,000, a long haul from the 387,368 new electric vehicles registered in 2024.

It’s not impossible, but unlikely given the trends. Electric sales in California have hit a wall. The market share for all brands of zero-emission vehicles fell to 21.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024, which was down from 23.7% in the third quarter, according to the California New Car Dealers Association.

“Things aren’t looking so golden” even for Tesla, a longtime California favorite, says the CNCDA.

“Tesla’s dominance in the electric vehicle market continues to falter as the brand reported its fifth consecutive quarterly registration decline. Tesla’s registrations fell 7.8% in Q4 2024, contributing to an overall 11.6% decline in 2024.”

Tesla Sales Plunging Even Before Musk Joined Trump

Remember, these numbers were recorded before the political left, which presides over California, turned on Tesla when company co-founder and CEO Elon Musk joined President Donald Trump’s effort to downsize the federal government.

The electric vehicle slump has not been caused by a decline in overall sales. “New vehicle registrations among all brands remain stable,” according to the CNCDA.

Even with billions in federal subsidies, which in some instances have turned what otherwise would have been a $700 monthly payment into a far more affordable $400 monthly payment – and might be disappearing for good, further depressing demand – the market has grown cold.

Those who want electric vehicles have made their purchases. Some, of course, will continue to buy them, though many have buyer’s remorse. Nearly half, 46%, of U.S. electric vehicle owners say they plan to switch back to internal-combustion automobiles.

On the other side are those who’ve never had one, don’t want one, and can’t imagine ever buying one. Their reasons are many, and legitimate, from range anxiety to price to steep insurance premiums and repair bills to, well, resisting the edicts of bullying politicians.

The Headaches of Newsom’s Mandate

Newsom’s mandates will create headaches for both automakers and new-car dealers. In a decade, California dealer lots might be filled with electric cars they can’t sell because they’re unwanted, along with leftover gas-powered cars that will be in demand but no longer legal to be sold here.

In the intervening years, traditional vehicle sales might be so high that by the last months of the calendar year dealers cannot sell another one and still meet the electric quota.

Maybe carmakers and dealers will know just how many electric and gas-powered cars to ship to California to avoid future inventory problems. But “if they don’t hit the target, manufacturers will either have to drastically reduce the number of cars sold in California, or face a penalty of $20,000 per vehicle sold beyond the limit,” says Calibrate, a coalition of businesses, industry interests and consumer advocates that is asking for “a practical, balanced approach” to the EV mandate.

To avoid punishment, manufacturers might refuse to “ship new cars to California despite consumer demand.” Should that happen, buyers will surely cross the state line to buy the cars they prefer rather than be forced into models they don’t care for and might even resent owning.

Like so many other rash policy decisions made in California, the EV mandate should be scrapped. No one, not consumers, dealers, nor manufacturers, is ready for the trouble it’s going to cause.

About the Author

Kerry Jackson is the William Clement Fellow in California Reform at the Pacific Research Institute, a Pasadena-based think tank advocating free-market policy solutions. 

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